Let's change, from optimism to disappointment

Let's change, from optimism to disappointment

They want to believe. The President gives a long speech, deliberated, argued and reassures them. They do not arrive at the end of the month, they barely pay the increase in the fees in installments, they become more and more gasoleros, they cut here and there so as not to change the school kids. Resigned, yesterday received government officials and legislators. They no longer have the strength or the anger.

He Electorado de Cambiemos does not understand what happens. They talk about something that happened in Turkey and in Brazil, of their own mistakes. Nothing closes them. They are disappointed. They believed that change was possible. They come to the neighborhood infrastructure works and advances in security and fight against drug traffickers, but do not tolerate living in the uncertainty of inflation that eats them a little more each day.

So we could summarize the timbreo of Cambiemos that yesterday led Mauricio Macri and María Eugenia Vidal, according to the survey Infobae between several of the intendants and officials of different rank of the national Government and the Buenosairean one. "It was the worst that touched me," said a secretary. "They value that we give the face, although we can not avoid that they say to us that they are not going to return to vote to us", told a mayor. Few force themselves into forced optimism. "It no longer gives," explain officials who suffered cuts in their own budget and staff or-simply-the persistent refusal on the part of the higher echelons to listen to criticism.

Two of the highest leaders were absent. The chief of staff, Marcos Peña, because he had a family commitment. And the Head of Government of the City of Buenos Aires, Horacio Rodríguez Larreta, traveling through the United States with businessmen from the technology sector.

However, from Chancellor Jorge Faurie, to the newly appointed Deputy Chief of Staff, Andrés Ibarra, passing through Senator Federico Pinedo and government secretaries Pablo Avelluto, Luis Etchevehere and Adolfo Rubinstein, there were almost no defections in the presidential team.

The most remarkable thing is that none are encouraged to risk that "the worst is over". Strictly speaking, they do not know it. All the predictions that ventured this year failed and can not be sure that having touched the floor, much less that the generalized flight of the peso will not continue this next week, when there will be a new Lebacs renewal.

Because the Government runs back to the crisis and is unable to anticipate to the replicas of an earthquake that contributed to generate is one of the questions that circulate, insistently, in the economic and financial world.

In The Hawk's Eye, the monthly report carried out for its clients by the former Secretary of Finance, Lisandro Barry, and partner Carlos Quaglio, state that "the original program (with the IMF) did not adequately assess the complex dimensions and implications that a currency crisis has in Argentina. … He did not take into account that the Argentina is a country "without currency", "structural propensity to inflation" and a vast history of altering the rules of the game, which led to seven ruptures of the constitutional order over the past 88 years and six times he entered into default. "

The weight of history or, better, the contempt for history that led to Cambiemos seems to be at the root of unpredictability. Or the illusion that the process started on December 10, 2015 was a-historical, pure present and future, lacking determinations in the final analysis.

Perhaps this is the strongest blow that the factótums of the story M. had. Of so unique, nothing of the historical could affect them. From so new, what happened would not impose its implacable laws. Taking these determinants into account would only cause loss of time and frustration. Any official who carried the historical burden in his DNA was just another of the sticks in the wheel of those who do not understand the challenges of the new times.

The interesting thing is that, deep down, in the Macri world they still believe the same. They are not convinced that they have made any really serious mistakes, although the reality does not behave as expected. Rather, they are pitfalls that come from the past, yes, resistance to change. It does not occur to them that their diagnoses were wrong or that they trusted the wrong people to carry out policies that were not sustainable.

And if you throw a little bit of the piola you can see that they are still firmly convinced that the management system with two vice-chiefs of the Cabinet that functioned as a buffer against the President, to take jobs from him and, above all, so that the ministers They could not do what they wanted, it was a great invention. Many that were worth little, to avoid "egos", that is, to avoid figures stronger than Macri's.

Barry and Quaglio say in their report that "between the exit of the stocks in December 2015 and the end of August, the exchange rate increased by 188%, the capitalized interest rate increased by 122% and consumer prices increased by 113%. " That is, who in December 2015 had $ 100 and would have bought dollars, "at the end of August he had $ 288, if he had placed them in Lebac, at the end of August he would have $ 222, and if he had bought an adjustable asset with price index at consumer would have $ 213 ". That is, even inflation has to grow.

But even more disturbing is the evolution of the real exchange rate. "It is still 69% below the peak of 2002", so "under the current conditions of the Argentine economy it is very difficult, if not impossible, to ensure that the value reached corresponds to the level of equilibrium"they say, what fear.

According to Barry and Quaglio, the program agreed with the IMF failed shortly because "almost from the beginning the inconsistency of the Lebac disarmament plan was demonstrated, which had to be drastically reformed". "Due to ingenuity or oversimplification, it was assumed that the mere announcement of the agreement and, especially, the magnitude of the agreement (66% wider than the best forecasts) would initiate a virtuous circle of changing expectations".

But that confidence shock has not yet arrived or, at least, not in the way expected. Why? "It's very difficult to answer," Barry told Infobae. "One can only assume that it is non-economic factors that are playing", he added.

It is the same as the Government assumes. That is why the President seeks to approach Ernesto Sanz, take a picture with Alfonso Prat Gay, add him to Carlos Melconian, bring him back to the ring to Martín Lousteau., Show him more often to Rogelio Frigerio. Did the decision system change? It's not going to change? Nothing makes him show off.

So? It only remains to wait for reality to adapt to the official conviction that "We are good, nothing bad can happen to us"Change to Change is getting harder than anyone would have thought.

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