Living with Russia? | Cairn.info


The war against Ukraine launched by Russia on February 24, 2022 already has and will have major strategic and geopolitical consequences. Even more than the attacks of September 11, 2001, it is a profound rupture in the international order as it emerged in 1991 with the disappearance of the USSR. The war continues as I write, and most experts predict a long conflict. The economic and geopolitical consequences of the war are already taking shape with more or less certainty.
On the certainty side, a massive food crisis – the UN Secretary General has spoken of a “hurricane of famine” –, the slowdown in global growth and stagflation. On the uncertain side, the evolution of China and the anti-Western bloc that Vladimir Putin is trying to form, and which has begun to result in the refusal of several countries to condemn Russian aggression. For the time being, it is difficult to distinguish between wait-and-see attitude and hostility in the attitude of these countries. As for China, it hesitates between its “eternal friendship” with Russia, and the wish to put an end to the damage inflicted by the war on a prosperity which is based on the expansion of world trade and, in particular, exchanges with the ‘West. So that the Chinese Communists could quickly be bothered by the adventurism of the Russian little brother. That said, Vladimir Putin’s grand design to take the lead in de-Westernizing the world may not be entirely unrealistic, given the resentment of many countries at the collateral damage of globalization, identified with the world Anglo-Saxon, of the disenchantment of democracies, weakened by distrust of politics and societal and…