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Lu Yuren – Hype Commodities are on the Rise | Financial High Tea | Headline Daily

In June, the US Federal Reserve decided to raise interest rates by 0.75%, and it is estimated that there is still a chance to increase interest rates by 0.75% in July. If the pace of interest rate hikes is really so rapid, it should pose a lot of pressure on the asset market. However, the big players still seem to have not changed their strategy of speculating between the two interest rate meetings. US stocks rose sharply last Friday, with the Dow Jones index soaring 823 points, or 2.7%.

You can look at the one-year chart of Du’s Index. Since the beginning of this year, it has peaked and declined. Every time the borrowed inflation rises or falls sharply before and after interest rate hikes, there will be a wave of retaliatory rebounds, and each rebound will drop by about half. On the interest rate day, it began to insert again, forming a perfect descending track, one wave was lower than the other, and the trend was traceable. This wave of rebound can bounce for about a week, and then be careful that the U.S. stock market will start to decline again.

As for the Hong Kong stock market, although it will fall with the US stock market, the near row will be driven by the strong trend of the mainland stock market. Although it will adjust with the decline of the US stock market, after bottoming out in March, it will begin to form a small upward trajectory, and it will not fall below the low level. It seems to have a repeated upward taste. Therefore, every time the U.S. stock market is adjusted, it is all about buying goods. If you take the short-term and medium-term, you can wait for two weeks to sell, and wait for the next adjustment period of the U.S. interest rate discussion to come, and make a profit at a low price. It should be noted that commodity prices began to show sharp fluctuations, reflecting the gradual emergence of the effect of interest rate hikes.
Shanghai commodity night market plunges

Last week, the trend of Hong Kong stocks was stronger than that of U.S. stocks. The Dow index fell below 30,000 points at the beginning of last week. Mainland A-shares are improving and become a force for maintaining stability in Hong Kong stocks. Last Friday, the Hang Seng Index rose another 445 points, or 2.1%, to close at 21,719, rebounding 644 points for the whole week; the KSE index rose 191 points for the whole week.

After Hong Kong stocks took the lead, U.S. stocks also bounced on Friday. The Dow closed at 31,500 points, up 823 points in a single day, or 2.7%; For the first time, it rose more than 3% in a single day; the Nasdaq closed at 11,607 points, up 375 points, the largest single-day increase since May 13. Summarizing the whole week, the Du, SSI, and Nasdaq rose 5%, 6.5%, and 7.5%, respectively. Hong Kong stock ADR closed with good results.

I said that the US stock market’s surge is still a big play to keep up with the downtrend, but the big players have rebounded, and there is a reason to talk about it every day. This time, the Fed finally faces the reality and is willing to raise interest rates to deal with inflation, or There is a chance to avoid triggering recessions. Rising interest rates have caused changes in asset markets, with commodity prices showing signs of pressure. Mainland commodities fell sharply in overnight trading last Friday, with Shanghai tin and nickel down nearly 9%, zinc down 7%, and coal down 3%. As a global manufacturing power, the central government has been keeping an eye on commodity prices, which have been suppressed since the beginning of the year. With the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian war, commodity prices have remained high. Now the pace of interest rate hikes in the United States is accelerating. If the economy slows down, commodity prices will naturally increase. , For the macro economy, falling commodity prices can help reduce costs, or large players can interpret it as a good phenomenon.

The commodity boom that started last year is a super boom that has not been seen for many years. Players believe that it is impossible to maintain it for a long time. However, the more you are shocked, the higher the price, and you always refuse to look back. Big waves can come and go either aggressively or quietly Hidden, this is the most awesome place in the market.

Mainland metal commodities are subject to the central government’s policy, and oil prices are more internationalized. The oil group meets this week. Last Friday, August oil futures in New York stopped falling for two days and closed at $107.6 a barrel, up $3.35 or 3.2%, and fell about 0.5% for the whole week; Brent August oil futures closed at $107.6 a barrel. $113 a barrel, up $3.07, still down about 0.2% for the week.
Looking forward to the US tariff-free photovoltaic stocks

Under the effect of interest rate hikes, resource stocks are under pressure. Morgan Stanley believes that the escalation of central banks’ response to inflation and the impact of the epidemic will continue to suppress metal demand, which will worsen the macroeconomic background of the non-ferrous metal industry. Minmetals Resources (1208) led the decline in resources on Friday. Shares, plunged 7.5% in water to close at 2.84 yuan; China Molybdenum (3993) fell 2% to close at 4.32 yuan; China Hongqiao dropped 4% to close at 8.48 yuan.

The market pays attention to commodity and resource stocks and then expands or expands. Bloomberg analysts believe that the economic slowdown will affect the demand for resources, but the trend of resource prices is different from that of stocks. The stock market generally leads the real economy. In the future, the stock market will first. Fall, recession is coming, the stock market has bottomed out, the market has begun to recover before the recovery, and commodities are relatively close to the real economy. Some big players even think that they will be hyped when they are heading for a recession. “Wall Street Inside Look” quoted Goldman Sachs as saying that if the recession is caused by inflation, commodities and oil prices may rise sharply in the early stage of the recession, so now is not the time to sell commodities.

The opinions of the big players are different from others, but no one knows whether their public remarks have any special trading strategies. Anyway, two years ago, the oil price could fall to a negative value. Who would have thought that it is more than 100 US dollars a barrel now? If commodities and oil prices rise sharply, there are two things that can be determined. First, the stronger the rise, the greater the damage to the economy, and the stronger the fall in the future. It will make people reluctant to part. At this time, participating in speculation, there are 7 words to describe: Infinite scenery is on the dangerous peak!

The sharp rise in commodity and energy prices is the main hype in the market this quarter. Cyclical stocks such as traditional energy and shipping are hovering at high levels and are temporarily unable to break through. In contrast, the new energy sector has a lot of power, and electric vehicles have been built well for several days. After that, it is the turn of photovoltaic stocks to fry, and the market expects the United States to cut tariffs on photovoltaic modules in China. Comtec Solar (712) last Friday Monday. Degrees surged more than 20%, and closed up 18%, at 0.33 yuan; GCL Technology (3800) rose 11%, and closed at 3.74 yuan; GCL New Energy (451) also rose 11%, and closed at 0.188 yuan; Xinyi Guang Neng (968) rose 5% to close at 13.12 yuan. It should be noted that industry insiders predict that there may be excess production capacity of environmentally friendly glass, and the speculation sector should pay attention to the market conditions of individual products.
Giordano’s privatization price is not particularly attractive

Another piece of news worth noting is that Chow Tai Fook proposed to privatize Giordano (709) at a price of 1.88 yuan. After the resumption of trading, the share price reached a maximum of 1.95 yuan, up 22.64%. Giordano has nearly 1.58 billion outstanding shares and nearly 170 million outstanding share options. At present, the Chow Tai Fook family holds 24.6% of Giordano’s shares, while those acting in concert include Chairman and Chief Executive Liu Guoquan, executive directors Chen Jiawei and Luo Xuewen, holding a total of 1.79% of the shares. Chow Tai Fook emphasized that it will not replace the original management, but will review and improve the group’s operating structure together with the management.

Before the new crown epidemic, Giordano’s stock price hovered at the level of 3 or 4 yuan for a long time. The company can still maintain dividends under the epidemic. If profitability is restored, the interest rate should be higher than the current 9%. The purchase price is not particularly attractive, but it is now retail The shares are generally low-residual, and buyers may not necessarily need to acquire them at high prices. And holding more than 5% of Giordano’s stock altar Chang Mao’s bid is too low.

From Chow Tai Fook, it shows that the impact of the epidemic on the economy may be coming to an end, and the impacted stock prices are gradually reaching the end of the tunnel. Patient investors may wish to choose some dividend-paying shares for long-term holding.
Hitoshi Rikuha

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