The “pollice verse” or “thumb turned” is the gesture with which the Roman emperors spared or not the life of the gladiators, once they verified the opinion of the public present in the circus. Pablo Casado The week began with the vertigo of having the government in his hand and he was preparing his thumb to issue his verdict.
He looked both ways. He found that the polls are critical of the government’s management and that the confrontational policy led by Isabel Díaz-Ayuso was well valued. He believed that other parties like PNV, ERC and Citizens they were on his line. But when he was preparing to turn his thumb, absorbed by his unique opportunity and thinking that everyone was looking at him, he found that the devoured was the lion and nobody even looked at whether his gesture was condemning or absolving. Others were ahead of him, he miscalculated the times, the time and the stage to launch the attack.
He made a speech to argue the no and almost finished thanking and acknowledging Inés Arrimadas and the PNV having agreed what he wanted to achieve: “I told him the day before yesterday that we could not support this extension to the state of alarm and today we are not going to support it. ERTE and aid to the self-employed and SMEs in a state of alarm, if it improves co-governance with the autonomous regions and if it adapts the actions against the pandemic to ordinary legislation in order to emerge, within two weeks, from constitutional exceptionality. It has led him to commit to do these three actions, even if by force, and to accept the declaration of national mourning. Today he said that he is willing to do it and for this reason we will keep the commitment not to vote against him. “
And then almost everything has been adverse for the PP leader. To the point of ending what was to be his big week with his storyline affected by the disaster of the last days in the Government of the Community of Madrid, its ideological and political benchmark.
PP sources argue that Casado maintains a long-term strategy, beyond conjunctures like this week and knowing that Wednesday’s vote was not a motion of censure, nor a plebiscite of support for Sánchez. On Monday with Carlos Alsina in Onda Cero, exposed the conditions for which he did not support the state of alarm and, then, it is the Government that has reapplied its strategy of cornering the PP and preferring to agree with Arrimadas and whoever, rather than with the main party of the opposition, although it is seen as an operation dialogue.
Always according to these sources, the PP bases would be delighted that they had voted no, while the regional leaders of the party wanted abstention. Or to be exact, Galician Alberto Núñez Feijóo went from no to pressing for abstention after speaking with Vice President Carmen Calvo on Monday.
Their prediction is that the government will abuse Arrimadas’ help and, as Sánchez and Calvo have hinted, they will ask for successive alarms until at least July. The PP assures (today) that in such a case they will vote against next time.
His objective at the beginning of the week was to denounce the bad management of Pedro Sánchez and force him to negotiate to impose his conditions on him. But finally, Arrimadas obtained with his 10 deputies the same government concessions that Casado did not obtain with his 88, as the PP leader himself had to admit. He was ignored by the Prime Minister. Cornered, according to the popular ones.
Now, Arrimadas begins a turn to kill Father Albert Rivera, propitiate pacts with Sánchez and de-escalate the conflict on the pandemic with the Government and Santiago Abascal, with a harsh speech that the PP will never be able to match even if it tries and with the threat of a symbolic censure motion with an effect that will only last for the duration of the hypothetical parliamentary session
Can you again accuse Pedro Sánchez of improvisation, concealment and not taking care of the health of citizens if the Community of Madrid calls for the change of de-escalation phase against the opinion of your general director of Health and your health adviser and without delivering the report on time to the Ministry of Health? In any case, you must now recalculate your position, such as the GPS, to retouch it or to continue on the same path.
He has margin, according to the PP, denouncing situations such as illegal secrecy about experts who advise the government and pressuring the new extension of alarm that will be raised next week and which Moncloa does not resign. Then supposed the PP could vote against, but, except for changes, their vote would not be relevant if Ciudadanos and PNV maintain theirs.
The PP has since this week another political battlefield, that of the commission for the reconstruction of Congress against the PSOE and, even, Citizens
PP sources explain that there will be no change and anticipate two concrete and immediate initiatives: in Congress to ask for the list of experts that advises the Government and in Justice to denounce the Executive. The first will be a non-law proposal signed by the deputies Cuca Gamarra, Ignacio Echániz and Elvira Rodríguez and that it will be voted in the plenary session and the second was anticipated this Saturday by the number two of the party, Teodoro García Egea, to take the Executive to the Prosecutor’s Office due to the lack of protection material for health personnel. “The Government’s responsibility in this case is clear. The purchase of material has been a real disaster and today we are going to urge the Prosecutor General’s Office to investigate whether this purchase of material has been the subject of any type of deviation,” he assured on 7TV. of Murcia.
The PP has since this week another political battlefield, that of the congress reconstruction commission, with very different visions from those of the PSOE and even from those of Ciudadanos, regarding times, content and methodology. There the PP will also be, in principle, isolated from everyone.
Casado’s thesis, as explained by the PP, is that Sánchez is not to be trusted, that it is not possible to reach agreements with him, that he uses the state of alarm to govern outside of democratic control, that he does not even inform the other parties although he always has his support in the voting of extensions and that there is no more explanation for the high numbers of deaths and infections in Spain in relation to other countries than the poor management of Sánchez.
Pablo Casado immolates himself into nothing
The PP leader wanted to turn the session into a motion of censure and has ended up relegated to an irrelevant role ‘thanks’ to a conjunctural agreement by Sánchez and Arrimadas that outrages Rufián
That is why he broke the agreement of his head of Justice, Enrique López, with the Minister of Justice, Juan Carlos Campo, on emergency measures for the courts.
Another key that his team explains, and that Casado always points out in his speeches in Congress, is the suspicion that the EU will impose harsh conditions on Spain in the coming months and that the coalition government will not want to assume them. Holds the PP that Sánchez will need and will seek support for these adjustments, with the aim of sharing the load. “For Italy we also get what the required adjustment could be: half of the declared deficit, that is, about 60,000 million euros. Where are you going to get so much money with a budget that allocates 8 out of 10 euros to pensions, benefits for unemployment, salaries of officials and interest on the debt? “he said from the rostrum.
One of the problems of Casado is that the PP is opposition, but at the same time it is Government and power in the communities, even more so in a matter such as that of the coronavirus where autonomic management is important, that is, where the popular have great responsibilities , as explained by a prominent deputy. And the Government has known how to use that duality.
Entrepreneurs and 350 million losses a day ‘convinced’ Ayuso to request phase 1
Since last Saturday, when the Ministry of Finance updated the report on the economic impact of covid-19, the plan not to be left behind in phase 1 was a priority
Especially since the PP president has put in these weeks the president of the Community of Madrid, Isabel Díaz Ayuso, as an “example” of what his party wants to do at the national level “and as soon as the Spanish give us their confidence what will”.
And this Saturday, Casado, has accused Sánchez of wanting to cover his “negligence” and “dire management” of the coronavirus pandemic criticizing the government of the Community of Madrid. It has been helped by an unfortunate campaign on the official account of the PSOE on Twitter against the Government of the Community of Madrid, in a kind of spiral of institutional confrontation.
The PP explains in its argument that the priority in Madrid is the sanitary one, but that it is necessary balance with economic and social, which would explain Ayuso’s performance.
Ayuso was the personal bet of Casado, against all prognosis and internal logic of the PP, and it was successful depending on the result, since after the disaster of the general elections, he was able to make up his situation, preserving the Community of Madrid and recovering the city council of Madrid. In this case with José Luis Martínez-Almeida, also one of its bets, but that in this crisis of the pandemic stands out precisely because of its more conciliatory attitude and its predisposition to agree and not confront. That is, the opposite of what Casado and Ayuso do.
The Galician Alberto Núñez Feijóo and the Andalusian are not close to Casado Juan Manuel Moreno. And both have accepted the possibility of dialogue to seek agreements with the opposition and this Monday they spoke with Vice President Carmen Calvo to accept a new extension of the alarm and ensure that Casado was not going to no. Thanks to them, the Government had certain guarantees on Tuesday that the PP would abstain in plenary on Wednesday.
Feijóo, who still regrets not having taken the step a year ago to lead the PP, and Brown they come from the Rajoy stage. If the PP were observed as the geological layers of the earth, these two barons are part of the crust, in contact with the mantle of the Rajoy stage, while Married and Ayuso, from the outer crust they touch directly with the nucleus of the party, which was formed in the stage of José María Aznar. Married performed the ritual of killing the father, to resurrect the grandfather. Of course, everything from the political point of view.
Agreeing requires two conditions. The first is to believe that Sánchez tells the truth. The second, believing that you keep your covenants
Between 1996 and 2004, they coincided in Moncloa, in the team closest to Aznar, Miguel Ángel Rodríguez, Carlos Aragonés, Alfredo Timermans, Javier Fernández Lasquety, Francisco García Diego and Gabriel Elorriaga. The six are now part of the Casado and Ayuso team. Although they are heterogeneous between them and their relations in some cases are not close, they come from that nucleus and almost all have lived experiences like those of “Go away, Señor González! “, The Gulf War, the Prestige and 11-M, among other.
Rodríguez is head of the Cabinet of the president of the Community of Madrid, with García Diego as adviser and number two and Fernández Lasquetty as powerful adviser to the Treasury. Aragonés advises the PP leader and Timermans and Elorriaga are in the team of Cayetana Álvarez de Toledo. The PP spokeswoman, in turn, comes from FAES, the effective ‘think tank’ of Aznar, in which Casado himself also had a prominent role, which in these weeks calls for a strong opposition to the Government, without any agreement.
“Agreeing in this case requires two conditions. The first is to believe that Sánchez is telling the truth. The second is to believe that he is fulfilling the pacts. As for the first, Sánchez’s close friendship with the lie is not a disqualification but rather statistical evidence of which Ciudadanos has abundant records. On the second, except that he comb his ponytail and speak softly, fulfilling the commitments is a grace that Sánchez does not squander with forces that he considers minor and they are also not nationalists, “he wrote FAES after Sánchez’s agreement with Arrimadas, in a message that draws red lines for Casado if he tried to reach agreements with the Government.
From Aznar (2004) to Sánchez (2020): the same mistakes to respond in a crisis
During the coronavirus crisis, President Sánchez is making the same mistakes that President Aznar made after the 9/11 attacks
In the absence of two and a half months of completing the first year as leader of the PP, Casado is distinguished by two fundamental characteristics: for his hyperactivity with which he never hides, nor avoids appearances and statements, which these days leads him to a sort of electoral campaign with daily phrase, and by the hyperbole of his speeches. In February 2019 he called “felon and traitor”, among other things, to Sánchez, and two months later in The Objective of the Sixth he apologized saying: “I recognize that that day … I was in Cuenca and, hey, we are human and it is true that, well, it is a description, because what he had done was a matter of treason, but the mistake is to direct it and personalize it in a person who is a politician and who, no matter how badly he does things, can be defined differently. ” Actually he said it in Madrid in an interview with Efe and then he repeated it in Cuenca, but the rectification puts in his mouth the recognition of hyperbole.
In the Community of Madrid the weakening of the coalition government and the confrontation between Ayuso and his vice-president Ignacio Aguado, from Ciudadanos, who tries to detach himself from the politics of confrontation of his president and from episodes like the festival at the door of IFEMA.
Sources of the PP of Madrid explain it as a defense mechanism, assuring that there is a campaign against Ayuso, which began with the complaint of cuts in health in Madrid. They add that “in Madrid the left hates the PP and Citizens despise it, then there is no point in Aguado’s attempt to agree with the PSOE. “According to this explanation,” Aguado must be aware that he is vice president thanks to the votes of VOX, not those of the PSOE “and conclude that the vice president has a problem of “Location”.
Madrid presents the request to go to phase 1 after the resignation of the director of Health
The documents have been forwarded by the director of the branch to the portfolio that Salvador Illa directs. He did it after a very turbulent day in the Ministry
Regarding the situation created this week with the frustrated advance to another phase of de-escalation, sources in the PP of Madrid assure that the scales established by the Government harm communities with such a population density as Madrid, for example, in what refers to the number of beds and ICU per inhabitant and also explain that what he did Ayuso is to balance the sanitary arguments with the economic and the social ones. This explains why it was done despite the contrary opinion of Yolanda Fuentes, director of public health who resigned on Thursday.
Fuentes has had a prominent role in managing the pandemic. On February 25, she already warned of the start of the contagions in Torrejón and is one of the people who best knows what has happened in the Community of Madrid from a health point of view. His resignation is a serious setback for the PP and for Ayuso’s victimizing strategy, although in this case, Aguado has also supported the frustrated phase change. It is not easy to argue that everything is a campaign against Ayuso when his own health manager was opposed and when the Ministry of Health has done the same with a part of the Valencian Community.