National core CPI rises 0.5%, energy-led for 4 consecutive months plus-December –Bloomberg

The National Consumer Price Index (core CPI excluding fresh food) announced by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications in December last year increased by 0.5% from the same month of the previous year. This was the fourth consecutive month of positive growth, centered on rising energy prices, including electricity and city gas prices. The growth rate was the same as the previous month, which was lower than the market forecast (up 0.6%).

Of the energy, electricity bills increased by 13.4% from the same month of the previous year, the highest increase since March 1981.

Key Point
  • National core CPI up 0.5% year-on-year (median forecast for Bloomberg survey up 0.6%) -up 0.5% last month
  • National core core CPI excluding fresh food and energy fell 0.7% (expected to fall 0.6%) -previous month down 0.6%
  • Overall CPI up 0.8% (expected to rise 0.9%) -up 0.6% last month

In the United States, where inflation is at a high level, the Federal Reserve Board (FRB), which is promoting a leveling up for rate hikes, is expected to raise rates by 0.25 points more than four times by the end of the year, and speculation that it will raise rates by 0.5 points at a time. Is out.In Japan as well, upward pressure on consumer prices is increasing, but the Bank of Japan’s governor, Haruhiko Kuroda, said at a meeting on the 18th that he could not see a price stability target of 2% and said, “We will revise the current monetary easing. There is no need at all. “Told.

The Economist’s View

Nobuyasu Atago, Chief Economist of Ichiyoshi Securities:

  • If energy remains high and the special factors of mobile phone price reductions and GoTo’s fluctuations in accommodation charges disappear, the core CPI will reach around 1.8% in April.
  • In addition, more companies may temporarily ride 2% if they pass on prices at the beginning of the year.
  • Still, as long as energy with wide fluctuations occupies the majority, temporary price increases will not immediately lead to policy changes.Is it possible to sustain 2%?
  • Wages and prices need to rise synergistically in order for prices, excluding special factors and energy, to become stronger.

Yuichi Kodama, Chief Economist, Meiji Yasuda Research Institute:

  • Prices have hardly changed except for energy and food.
  • Energy prices are now under 1.2% downward pressure on real personal income and personal consumption.Shows how energy is still squeezing households
  • Electricity prices continue to rise, and energy prices will continue to rise. There is no trend at this point that this will spread to general prices.It is possible that some crude oil-derived products will rise, but overall general prices will rise and inflation expectations will not rise steadily.
  • It continued to be shown that the price target was far from being achieved.That’s exactly what Governor Kuroda says it’s not time to think about normalizing financial policies.

Details (Explanation by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications)

  • The core CPI in December was offset by the increase in energy and the decrease in accommodation charges, and as a result, there was no significant change from November.
  • The rate of increase in accommodation charges is gradually decreasing due to the suspension of GoTo travel in December 2020. From January, there will be no boosting contribution.
  • The increase in overall growth is due to the rise in fresh food prices. Hokkaido, where onions and potatoes are produced, is poorly harvested due to high temperature and light rain.Soaring fuel prices are also reflected in the rise in tomatoes and tuna grown in greenhouses.
  • The core CPI for 2009 fell 0.2% year-on-year, down for the second consecutive year.Overall was down 0.2% for the first time in 5 years, and core core CPI was down 0.5% for the first time in 8 years.

background

  • In December, Tokyo, which is a leading indicator of prices nationwideCore CPI rose 0.5% year-on-year, mainly due to high energy prices. The highest growth rate since February 2020
  • The Bank of Japan has a new outlook for the economy and prices (In the Outlook Report), the core CPI outlook for FY2010 and FY2011 was revised upward to 1.1% year-on-year, and “the rate of increase of about 1% will continue toward the end of the outlook period.”The risk balance of the price outlook has also been raised to neutral from the previous “downside”.

(Updated with details and economist comments)