National economy could grow 4.5% adopting artificial intelligence

National economy could grow 4.5% adopting artificial intelligence

One of the greatest difficulties that the country has been facing in recent years it is the deceleration of the potential growth of the economy.

To have an idea, the decline curve in 2014 was 4.4% growth; in 2015, of 3.1%; in 2016 of 2% and in 2017, the variation was 1.8%.

The official projection of the Bank of the Republic for this year it foresees a rebound of a growth of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of 2.7%.

Precisely, in the midst of this uncertainty, there are not many ideas that can provide solutions to this problem. The Center for the Implementation of Public Policies for Growth and Equity (Cippec), released the report "Artificial Intelligence and Economic Growth: Opportunities and Challenges for Colombia", prepared at the request of Microsoft Latin America.

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The report suggests that in the most positive scenario of the irruption of artificial intelligence in the Colombian economy, annual growth could reach 4.5%.

According to the entity, to reach that figure, built an expanded growth model in which trajectories were evaluated alternatives for the adoption of artificial intelligence in six economies in the region (Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, Peru, Chile and Colombia).

One of the most conventional ways to inquire about the economic growth of a country is through the idea that GDP is produced through the combination of labor and capital with a certain technology and productive organization.

To evaluate the possible impact of AI in Latin America during the next 10 years, three alternative scenarios of adoption of this technology were estimated, as well as the effects of automation and innovation.

In the negative scenario, it is assumed that there is no adoption of AI and therefore economic growth is not affected by any of the aforementioned effects, assuming that unlike what happened during the third industrial revolution, there is no automation of tasks in the period considered and that growth remains unchanged in relation.

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Meanwhile, in a neutral scenario, according to the document, it is assumed that Latin America absorbs the technologies associated with AI at the same pace as it did with ICT during the third industrial revolution, in such a way that there is a smooth automation effect that accelerates economic growth but without innovation effect, which means that the growth is the same as in the previous scenario, without changes.

But when arriving at the so-called positive scenario, which simulates the adoption and diffusion of artificial intelligence in Latin America, the model is represented with an automation effect that is 50% higher than that of the third industrial revolution with ICT and a innovation effect that generates half the growth of the total productivity of the factors that reached the economies of Asia Emerging in the third industrial revolution.

It is with this last scenario, according to the projections, with which the Colombian economy could grow at least 4.5% annually in the next 10 years.

"In the positive scenario, the adoption of artificial intelligence is powerful and is represented by a symbol in all tasks. The automation effect is more intense than in the neutral scenario, "says the report.

For Marco Casarín, Microsoft's manager in Colombia, artificial intelligence is capable of "Perceive, learn and reason to increase the capabilities of people".

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