The playoff image is taking shape. Since 2002, the year the league was increased to 32 teams, a team with a positive difference has made the playoffs two thirds of the time (164 out of 248 teams). That's encouraging news for a 3-5 team like the Indianapolis Colts (up 18 points difference) but less good news for the 5-3 Washington Redskins (minus 12) and 5-3 Cincinnati Bengals (minus 16). ,
The Redskins' grip on a playoff spot may be the hardest. Not only were they beaten by the Atlanta Falcons 38-14 on Sunday, but the team learned that right-wing guard Brandon Scherff, left-wing guard Shawn Lauvao, and broad receiver Paul Richardson are missing the rest of the year for injuries. In addition, Trent Williams has a few more games to do to heal himself from the thumb operations and tackle Morgan Moses (knee), who is listed in everyday life properly.
Prior to the injury, Washington's attacking line was 19 th for pass blocking and 22% run blockade per Pro Football Focus. Who knows how much worse it will go on? It will certainly hinder the ability of quarterback Alex Smith to throw the ball. His pass rate of 103.2 in a clean bag drops to 55.3 when he faces pass pressure this season.
New Orleans Saints
Preseason over / under: 9.5 wins
Now: 12-4 planned record in 2018
The New Orleans Saints have done something in 2018 that no other team has ever managed to beat: the Los Angeles Rams. Quarterback Drew Brees and the Saints offensive made their part and put 45 points on the board. More impressive, however, was the defense of the team, in which Rams star Todd Gurley snatched up to 100 yards in a game with 79 yards for the third time this season.
Middle linebacker Demario Davis led the Saints with four stops or behind the scrimmage line, corner P.J. Williams had three, the defensive end was David Onyemata with two and eight other players, the advantage of New Orleans in the trenches.
"Eleven guys to the ball," said Saints defender Sheldon Rankins to NFL.com. "We just got a lot of people to the ball.
The defense of the Saints still has some work to do – they allow 2.5 points per run this season, the fourth most in the NFL – but they compensate for this by attacking 3, 3 points per drive, the second-highest after the Kansas City Chiefs.
New Orleans should be preferred in each game for the remainder of the season, with the next game on paper on paper, not until week 15, when the saints start playing the Carolina Panthers at home.
Preseason above / below: 6.5 victories
Now: 5-11 projected record in 2018
Toward Sunday, the Bills were last in the classification (less than one point per trip), had the worst rating in the league (52.8) and scored almost 18 points less per game than they did due to down, distance and field positions Any insulting game would be expected. The Arizona Cardinals were with 14 points less than expected the next worst offense. And just when you did not think it could get any worse, Buffalo was beaten by the Chicago Bears 41-9.
It was a historic defeat for the franchise, a three-game skid that caused an 83-point deficit. The current four-game defeat is the second-worst in team history (up 90 points).
Do you want to show with your fingers? Look no further than quarterback Nathan Peterman. The second-year professional completed 44 of 81 passes (54 percent) for 297 yards, a touchdown and seven (!) Interceptions in four games. His 30.7 passer rating is lower than if you dropped the ball in the ground each game (39.6). According to ESPN, Peterman's performance would be good enough to win an NFL game in a 16-game (8.3 QBR) season. In other words, one would expect Peterman to win just one more game than if I were in the middle of Buffalo.
It's bad enough to have a passerby who will always put off when he falls behind, but the Bills are also the third most frequented team in the NFL (70) with a league high of 39 of those penalties. Only the Pittsburgh Steelers were rated more than Buffalo in 2018.
Kansas City Chiefs, +225 to win the AFC conference
Any discussion of Chiefs' winning the AFC title must begin with MVP candidate Patrick Mahomes. The 23-year-old quarterback completed 22 out of 32 passes on Sunday for a career-high 375 yards with three touchdowns and an interception game against the Cleveland Browns. Thus he was assigned in ten games 29 touchdown passes and 3.185 yards through the first 10 games of his career. He has also passed at least 300 meters in at least eight games. Under his leadership, the Chiefs' attack at Pro Football Focus ranks second behind the Los Angeles Rams, leading the League in 2018 by points per drive (3.3) and touchdowns per drive (41 percent).
Kansas City's defensive battles – it's 2.3 points per run, the sixth highest this season – but the pass rush is enormous, allowing him to neutralize some of the better quarterbacks in the league. Linebacker Dee Ford has been credited with eight sacks, 10 hits and 28 hurries, leading the league in forced fumble (four) and defensive duels. Adjusted for the strength of the timeline, the chiefs have one of the best adjusted sack rates in the NFL this year (8 percent, seventh place).
Based on their scored and allowed points, with adjustments for opponents and games still to be played, the Chiefs have a 48 percent chance of winning the AFC title. This implies an implied money line of +107, meaning that you bet $ 100 to win $ 107. Quota providers, however, offer a +225 money line, which makes this chief's future bets a decent value bet.
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