Tuesday, April 23, 2019
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Oil climbs on Libya force majeure, Canada failure

The US crude oil price rose above $ 75 per barrel on Tuesday for the first time since November 2014 as the market was increasingly affected by oil shortages due to disruptions in supply in Libya and Canada and tough US sanctions against Iran.

Profits were fueled by a failure in a major Canadian oil sands facility and mounting tensions in Libya's protracted conflict, which raised new concerns over its exports.

A representative of the Trump administration tightened these surprise events and told reporters that American diplomats urge oil buyers to stop all Iranian crude purchases by the beginning of November. A senior US State Department official reaffirmed Monday's harsher than expected policy.

"People are starting to hear about oil shocks, and there is little confidence in the market that we are avoiding an ever-tightening supply and demand situation," said John Kilduff, founding partner of the energy hedge fund Again Capital.

On Monday, Morgan Stanley raised its forecast for the international benchmark Brent crude for the second half of 2018 to $ 85 a barrel, up $ 7.50 from previous estimates.

The bank changed its outlook after reassessing the impact of US sanctions on Iranian exports and said it now expects shipments to drop by 1.1 million barrels a day by the end of the year. By 2019, sanctions had ended at 700,000 bpd.

"Over the past week, the downside risk to Iran's future oil supply has skyrocketed," said Martin Rats, global oil strategist and head of European oil and gas stock research.



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