Oil prices fluctuate awaiting a crucial meeting of the "OPEC" .. And eyes on inflation

Oil prices fluctuate awaiting a crucial meeting of the "OPEC" .. And eyes on inflation

International reports expected that the meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries “OPEC” and its allies on June 22 of the current crucial meetings, especially after the United States asked producers in OPEC and outside the increase in supply by about one million barrels per day, Venezuela is severely weakened in its ability to expand production, considering that the decision to increase production will be more of a suffering for these two countries. A report by Citigroup International said last month that it was likely to increase supplies later this year while sticking to the need to work together to achieve a consensus. The bank’s latest report suggests that recent oil price hikes will push global inflation more quickly than investors expect, partly because central banks are unlikely to respond by tightening monetary policy. The 10 per cent increase in crude oil prices would raise headline inflation by a quarter percentage point in the United States and in the eurozone and by 0.21 points in the United Kingdom, the report said. He pointed to the rise in prices of international benchmark Brent crude by about 20 per cent in the past three months to average price per barrel $ 77. Inflation is likely to be faster than usual as commodity prices are affected by a rise in crude oil as many markets are in tight supply. Central banks may be more cautious than in the past to react and intervene in these developments. Central banks, such as the Federal Reserve, are ignoring the price growth caused by rising oil prices, as they focus on pushing inflation to the target and may see price growth as temporary. For its part, the report of “World Oil” International that Venezuela and Iran are leading a campaign to urge the rest of the members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, “OPEC” to unite together against the US sanctions and its effects on the economies of some Member States. The report quoted Venezuelan Energy Minister Manuel Kefidu as calling for the support of the other members of the Organization, pointing out that OPEC should discuss the restrictive effects of the unilateral sanctions imposed by the United States of America, which represent an extraordinary financial and economic aggression against the national oil industry and the stability of the market. Venezuela, one of OPEC’s main producers, is already under US sanctions and faces the prospect of tougher sanctions after a US-sponsored commission last month accused President Nicolas Maduro of crimes against humanity, the report said. He said Iran, OPEC’s third largest producer, was also under severe US sanctions, including restrictions on oil trade, after US President Donald Trump announced his country’s withdrawal from the nuclear deal last month. The World Oil report pointed to Saudi Arabia and Russia’s assertion of their willingness to increase production, but in turn drew a different position to the Iraqi oil minister Jabbar al-Luaibi, who stressed that the increase in production is not on the table when the group meets in Vienna on June 22 because of what he called the positions Unbalanced by Member States and the need for consensus on any resolution. The report pointed to the rise in crude oil prices above the level of $ 72 in late May after a US decision to renew the sanctions on Iran and a sharp decline in oil production levels in Venezuela, which raised a wide state of concern due to the growing probability of a large shortage In the level of oil supplies. Since then, prices have fallen by about 8 per cent as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies are increasingly considering the possibility of easing restrictions on their supplies, the report said. Oil supplies in the market, which boosted supply levels. The World Oil report quoted international analysts as saying that there is a wide divergence of opinion and divergence of positions among some OPEC members, which may impose many challenges and difficulties on the next meeting in order to reach consensus and agree on the work plan in the period In the near future, suggesting that prices are likely to fluctuate without any clear direction as market uncertainty mounts. According to the report, all OPEC member countries benefited from the reduction of production and supply reduction, which was implemented at the beginning of last year, but the size of the benefit was not equally distributed, and this is normal because of the difference of production weight and the impact of the market from one country to another. He pointed out that the total revenues of crude oil exports in the OPEC countries by 28 per cent in 2017 to reach 578 billion dollars, according to data released by the Organization last Thursday, noting that the benefit of the members of the 14 members of the rise in prices, Joint production with a coalition of other producers including Russia to rid the world oil market of the former vast abundance. The report said Libya’s revenues from crude oil export revenues recorded the largest relative increase, rising by 61 percent, pointing out that Libya and Nigeria have been exempted from any production cuts in accordance with the deal to reduce production due to widespread damage over years of political conflict in the country and the impact In a negative way on the crude oil industry in both countries. He added that Libya and Nigeria were able in the past period to reap gains and benefit from higher prices for crude oil, while also doubled the level of production in both countries. The second biggest gainer was Qatar, which found its political dispute with other Gulf producers not a barrier to a 55 per cent rise in revenue. The UAE was ranked third after it was on track to meet the cuts it had made. He noted an important step in the life of the international agreement to reduce production, which led to more effective application, and this was precisely when Saudi Arabia took strict measures against OPEC countries with poor performance, in mid-2017. The distribution of gains from the deal was uneven, but the biggest target of producers’ attention and focus was achieved: restoring market balance, absorbing surplus stocks and stimulating investment. In addition, there was an improvement in the economic situation of all but two members. On the market, oil prices fell at the end of last week, affected by a steady increase in US crude production, falling demand in China and a report that JPMorgan lowered its price outlook. According to Reuters, the global benchmark Brent crude ended the trading session down 86 cents, or 1.11 percent, to settle at $ 76.46 a barrel. US benchmark West Texas crude fell 21 cents, or 0.32 percent, to close at $ 65.74 a barrel after recovering from losses earlier in the session. Brent ended the week down 0.2 per cent, while US crude was little changed. Oil prices were under pressure after data showed that Chinese demand was falling and concern over US growth continued. Traders said that JPMorgan lowered its forecast for US benchmark crude prices for 2018 by $ 3 to $ 62.20 per barrel. China’s imports of crude oil in May fell after hitting a record high last month as state-run refineries entered scheduled maintenance, customs data showed. Imports in May were 39.05 million tonnes, or 9.2 million barrels per day, compared with 9.6 million barrels in April. Prices were also affected by a rise in US production, which hit a new record last week at 10.8 million barrels per day. This means an increase of 28 per cent in two years or an average growth of 2.3 per cent per month since mid-2016, and this is approaching the United States to become the world’s largest crude oil producer, down from Russia’s 11 million bpd. The US Energy Information Administration said crude stocks in the United States recorded a surprise increase last week as gasoline inventories and distillates also increased. Crude inventories rose by 2.1 million barrels in the week ending June 1, compared with analysts’ forecasts of a 1.8 million barrel drop. Crude stocks in the futures delivery center in Cushing, Oklahoma, fell 955,000 barrels. Crude consumption in refineries increased by 214,000 barrels per day (bpd), according to management data, and operating rates rose 1.5 percentage points. Gasoline inventories rose by 4.6 million barrels, compared to analysts’ forecasts in a poll of 587,000 barrels. Data from the Energy Information Administration showed distillate stocks, including diesel and heating oil, increased by 2.2 million barrels, while 784,000 barrels were expected to rise. US crude oil imports rose 1.2 million barrels per day to 6.63 million bpd last week. US output has pushed the price of West Texas crude to more than $ 11 a barrel, its highest level since 2015. “This is happening because of the rapid increase in US rock production and the scarcity of supplies elsewhere through the Opec and Russia measures,” said William Olochlin, investment analyst at Reifen Australia Securities. The number of oil drilling rigs running in the United States rose for the third week in a row, although crude prices fell more than 8 percent over the past three weeks. Drilling companies added one oil rig in the week ending June 8, bringing the total number of rigs to 862, the highest level since March 2015, Baker Hughes Energy Services said in its closely watched report. This is the ninth weekly increase in the number of active oil drillings in America in the past 10 weeks, and the total number of oil rigs in the United States, a preliminary indicator of future production, is much higher than a year ago when it reached 741 diggers.

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