However, it is still unclear how big the new organic grain harvest will be in 2022 and what the follow-up supply after the harvest will be like. In any case, the fact is that the yields of organic grain suffer less from the drought than the yields of conventional grain. However, the conventional grain yields are twice as high as those for organic grain.
According to AMI, the price offers for the new organic grain harvest are currently very good. “Unlike in previous years, even the highest prices could be paid for the harvest,” say the market observers. How big the new harvest will be and how prices will develop afterwards is still completely unclear. However, a look at the conventional market shows that the price expectations on the futures market will hardly change for the next few months – or, to put it another way, the wheat prices will remain around the current level.
Only the next harvest in 2023 will be valued at EUR 335 per ton, around EUR 50 to 60 lower than the harvest in 2022 – but in a long-term comparison these prices are still very high. This should also motivate many organic farmers to rely on high and perhaps even further increasing prices. The only problem could be that the organic market does not work like the conventional market. Precisely because it is much smaller and actually quite regulated.
And also because on the consumer side, with sharply rising food prices and exploding living costs, he could lose customers for the first time in a long time. But the AMI also says: “The price level should remain high, but it is still unclear how high.”