consulting Firm in the field of geopolitics and macroeconomics emphasizes that the Social Democratic Party (PSD) and its partner – the Party of the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats (ALDE) – have failed so far to impose his will, although the lack of a parliamentary majority. The Agenda of the pro-reform citizens with the european orientation is supported in the public service and in the areas of civic and commercial, but it is fragmented politically, adds the source.
As a result, perhaps this impasse, highlighted by street protests and the fact that the western allies Romania and have expressed a number of concerns about the development of the situation, will continue, with the exception of the case in which the unpopular management of the economy by the government will cause major unrest.
A subjugation of the judicial system would entail, most likely, the sharp criticism from the EU, the vital reforms would be delayed or diluted because of the disorder of the political elite and the low quality of the governmental team, and the battles for power would deepen status of the peripheral of Romania in the EU and would prevent it from responding vigorously to the challenges of internal and regional, is shown in this analysis.
Reminiscent of the mass protests at the beginning of this year, but also by the laws of justice promoted by the government led by Mihai Tudose, the analysis pinpoints that the critical voices that say that, in the case in which they will enter into force, Romania could return to the situation before 2005, when the governments had intervened openly in the work of the legal system, often to protect certain characters influences suspected of corruption.
the consulting Firm notes that this course antireformă is led by the leader of the PSD, Liviu Dragnea, who is facing a trial for corruption, having already been sentenced to suspended prison sentence for electoral fraud.
Oxford Analytica reveals, however, that his influence is limited, given that current law does not allow him to hold a portfolio of government. At the same time, notes the consulting firm, inside the PSD tensions emerged, some of the members of the party considering it as being more concerned to save his own skin.
However, Dragnea believes that he has little to lose if he face the people at home and in manufacturing that promotes a reformed system of justice. He and his allies were openly critical of foreign investors who have said that their operations will suffer if political criteria would re-emerge as determinants of the judicial system.
it Is seen as an admirer of the leader of the Hungarian Viktor Orban and his attitude defiant against EU rules. However, Dragnea has less space for maneuver in comparison with Hungary and Poland, whose governments have managed to position themselves as defenders of the national interest in the face of a European Union that intervenes in their affairs, says Oxford Analytica.
ALDE Leader, Calin Popescu Tariceanu, is even more bold in terms of its criticism of the alleged interventions of the western, showing in the analysis. He criticized the foreign ambassadors for their support of Laura Codruta Kovesi, head of MRS., and never made a secret of his vision according to which Romania should follow the road, even if important allies mind.
So Dragnea and Tariceanu have been reluctant to criticize the powerful regional actors such as Russia and Turkey, countries that are moving more and more towards authoritarianism.
However, unlike the states of the Visegrad Group, Romania’s nationalist sentiment is weak, and the EU is more popular than in any other member country. But even so, it is difficult to say how much of a difference in practice support pro-european, in view of the parliamentary majority.