Monday, June 17, 2019
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Paris: towards a reissue of the rally of the century Jan / Apr 2015?

( – More than a week of additional rise (the 13th), and it will be the 'rally' of the century for the CAC40 or the Nasdaq (+ 1.05% respectively at 17H35)!

There is no euphoria in this 'market' delivered to the algorithms but the profile of the stock market indices resembles episodes of 'irrational exuberance' of the last century.

This supernatural rally of +19 to + 25%, that not even a single strategist even the most optimistic, had predicted, places many operators in a cantilever position compared to cyclical expectations lowered by the central banks, the OECD, the IMF … and even the IFO which reviews the German growth 2019 to + 0.6% against + 1.7% 6 months earlier.

There was only one sense for the actions this Friday (besides it's the same since January 3), that of the rise.

And failing to continue at the pace of the late morning, the CAC40 remained literally imprisoned in a corridor 5.380 / 5400 between 12.15 and 17.15: the goal is to prevent any index fall under 5.375.

On the other hand, no obstacle in the event of an inclination upwards of 5.400 … as we saw at the end of the session.

The Paris Stock Exchange shows an increase of 1.04% to 5.405 … but this is not the zenith of the day, the indices having experienced an acceleration up to 11H50 / 12h00 at the time of the changeover on the April deadline of the Euro-Stoxx50, passed suddenly from 3.363 to 3.393 (and the CAC40 from 5.380 to 5.421Pts)!

This is a session of the '4 witches' which concentrates all the big technical strings to maximize the quarterly gains until the caricature (+ 14.3% in one quarter, a record since winter 2015).

The CAC40 garners + 3.3% over the week, beaten by the E-Stoxx50 (+ 1.3% and 3.1% weekly, with Madrid + 1.45% this Friday) but it remains below +4 % of Nasdaq (+ 1% to 7.710) and + 14.2% since January 1st.

US economic indicators have been completely ignored in the face of the overwhelming dominance of 'technical factors'.

The release of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index is a welcome surprise: it stood at 97.8 points in preliminary estimate in March, better than the consensus that estimated it at 95.3 points (he had given some signs of weakness at the beginning of the year due to 'shutdown').

The 'Empire State' index fell from 8.7 to +3.7 while industrial production came out at + 0.1%, a little disappointing figures, welcomed in total indifference … because 'bad news is good news' in the current stock market climate.

In Canada, resales of old homes plunged -9.1% in February from -4% expected: the Canadian housing bubble reached historical levels last fall.

With less than a huge slippage today, US stock markets are heading for a 10th week of gains over a run of 12, for gains of between 20% and 25% since last Christmas.

The Dow Jones (+ 0.8%) – mid-session – seems to go straight to the 26,000, the S & P500 to 2.850Pts.

New York has hardly reacted to the vote by the British parliamentarians of the postponement of the 'deadline' of March 29 (extension of Article 50) which should allow to continue negotiations with Brussels and perhaps to iron out some different in internal.

On the value side, ST-Micro dominated the ranking with + 5%, ahead of Atos (+ 3.2%) and Valeo with + 3%.

Renault (+ 1.5%) indicates this morning that in February, its unit sales of vehicles (tourism and light commercial vehicles) fell by 7.2% to 269,227 units, after -9.9% in January. Its market share goes from 4.34 to 4.14%.

On the sidelines of the publication of its annual accounts, the Bolloré group indicated that Vincent Bolloré, its CEO, would not ask for the renewal of his term as director that ends in May. The board of directors has appointed one of his sons, Cyrille Bolloré, as CEO.

According to Les Echos, the future boss of Michelin, Florent Menegaux, is preparing to have a management team at his hand. Indeed, the one who will officially take over from Jean-Dominique Senard at the head of the pneumatician at the AGM on May 17 should unveil, at a meeting to be held on March 28 at the Carrousel du Louvre, in Paris, 'changes that will take effect on that date'.

This will include, according to the business daily, reduce the number of members of the executive committee from 13 to 10, and replace his second, Yves Chapot, by Scott Clark, in charge of North America.

Bouygues Telecom is pleased with the results of the tender offer, open from February 7 to March 13, 2019 inclusive. At the end of the settlement-delivery operations, Bouygues Telecom will hold a total of 1,674,753 Keyyo shares representing as many voting rights, ie 85.45% of the capital and at least 82.59% of Keyyo's voting rights.

Finally, Casino was the exception in a uniformly bullish market with -6.5% on Casino whose results continue to be sanctioned.

For the anecdote, and illustrate the Nasdaq rally: out of 45 analyzes (members of Factset) following the title Amazon, 44 were 'buy' Thursday night, only one was 'neutral' (Edward Yramu at KeyBanc).

The latter has just raised its recommendation to 'buy strong' with a dramatic increase in its price target to $ 2,100.



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