According to a forecast, the population in Baden-Württemberg will increase to more than 11.42 million people by 2040. According to the State Statistical Office, that would be over 300,000 more people than in 2020.
According to a forecast, the population in Baden-Württemberg will increase to more than 11.42 million people by 2040. That would be over 300,000 people or 2.9 percent more than in 2020, as the State Statistical Office in Stuttgart announced on Tuesday. All urban and rural districts are affected.
The predicted increase in population is particularly high in the cities of Heilbronn and Pforzheim, at 5.7 and 5.5 percent respectively, and in the district of Biberach, at 4.9 percent. The lowest increase of 0.1 percent was calculated for Baden-Baden.
For the calculation, the experts looked at, among other things, the number of births and deaths as well as the increases in the years 2017 to 2020. This development will then be updated in each case, explained Elisabeth Glück from the state office.
Regional details not considered
Regional details could not be taken into account – for example, if residential areas are newly advertised or if a large employer wants to settle in a region or another one closes. Population growth as a result of the war in Ukraine also played no part in the forecast, Glück explained. The further the forecast extends into the future, the more uncertain it becomes.
According to the forecast, the population is also getting older: With an average age of 48 years, Baden-Baden is likely to have the oldest people living in 2040 compared to other urban and rural districts. This is mainly due to the fact that the urban district already had the highest average age in 2020 at 47.2 years. Here, the experts assume an increase of only 0.8 years. In the district of Biberach, on the other hand, it was 2.8 years more – i.e. 45.6 years.