After the post-containment effervescence, the real estate market is experiencing, as every year at this time, a pause. From now on, professionals in the sector are awaiting the start of the school year with some trepidation. “In Nantes, where Airbus announced job cuts, we observed a drop of a third in demand. It is too early to learn any lessons in terms of prices, but in the past such a phenomenon often precedes a drop in prices ”, worries Loïc Cantin, deputy president of Fnaim (National Federation of Real Estate).
“As long as rates remain low and the economic situation does not hold back, it is consistent to think that demand will remain strong, even if the uninterrupted increase in volumes that we have seen for some time will probably slow down”, meanwhile, believe Eric Allouche, executive director of the ERA network.
So far, everything seems to be going well. “Prices follow the same trajectory as before the Covid crisis”, assures Maël Bernier, communications director of the real estate loan broker Meilleurstaux.com. In Ile-de-France, the Notaries of Greater Paris observed at the end of July, that between May 2019 and May 2020, the price of old housing had further increased by 6.5% in the continuity of previous months. And leading indicators on pre-contracts point to the prolongation and accentuation of these uptrends.
However, and this is a new phenomenon, Paris is stalling. A stagnation of prices seems to be emerging in the capital, with a price per square meter between 10,700 euros and 10,800 euros. But no drop in prices in sight. The annual increase should be reduced to 6.2% in one year in September 2020, against 8.2% last May. “Small surfaces continue to sell quickly, while large apartments find it more difficult to take buyers, because foreigners are not there to pull the market”, notes Maël Bernier.
We will have to wait a few months, when the notaries publish their data, to know if the fall in real estate prices has actually materialized.
In the whole of France, some indicators nevertheless go squarely in the red. According to the real estate observatory, set up by the real estate portal Le Partenaire, real estate prices in July are down compared to June: an old apartment costs 5,867 euros less compared to June . For old houses, the fall would be even greater: 7,635 euros. These figures, which are averages extrapolated from the price displayed in the site’s advertisements and the credit files it processes, remain fragmentary, but they can appear as leading indicators. Above all, this is the first time in three years that they are down.
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