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Result of the European elections 2019: Forecast for Germany – swatter for GroKo parties

European elections 2019 in Germany. A first prognosis and an extrapolation are available. The result is a gossip for the GroKo parties.

This is the current ZDF extrapolation to the result of the 2019 European elections in Germany:

  • CDU / CSU: 28.1 percent
  • SPD 15.7 percent
  • Green 20.9 percent
  • Left 5.5 percent
  • AfD 10.6 percent
  • FDP 5.4 percent
  • Other 13.8 percent

This is the current ARD extrapolation to the outcome of the 2019 European elections in Germany:

  • CDU / CSU: 28.6 percent
  • SPD: 15.3 percent
  • Green: 20.9 percent
  • Left 5.4 percent
  • AfD: 10.8 percent
  • FDP: 5.4 percent
  • Other: 13.6 percent

This is the first ARD extrapolation to the outcome of the 2019 European elections in Germany.

© Screenshot: The first

For the GroKo parties are the alarming numbers that the ZDF published after the European elections in 2019:

  • 33 percent of under-30s and 14 percent of over-60s chose the Greens.
  • 10 percent of the under-30s and 23 percent of the over 60-year-olds voted for the SPD.
  • 13 percent of the under-30s and 40 percent of the over-60s chose the CDU.

Munich – Currently only surveys give an overview of what the results of the 2019 European elections could look like. That will change on election day: with the closing of the polling stations on May 26 at 6 pm, the first forecasts will be made. They are getting more and more accurate as more polls are announced.

Some EU countries are voting on 23, 24 or 25 May. Depending on the country, forecasts are already available after the closure of the polling stations, comparable to the figures available in Germany from 6 pm on election Sunday. With official numbers, which represent a total result, is not expected before Sunday 23 clock. Partial close in EU countries, the polling stations in the first place at 23 clock. You will also find out more about the dates of the European elections in 2019 for the individual states.

On the evening of the election, we offer various graphics on the results in the individual EU states as well as on the profits, losses and percentages in Germany.

European Elections 2019: What result is expected in advance?

Already months before the 2019 European elections, surveys give an overview of how the parties would fare. Randomly selected people are asked by telephone survey for their voting decision at the current time. The question is always formulated identically: "Which party would you vote for if European elections were to be held next Sunday?"

Survey institutes regularly announce the results of the European election polls. These are, for example, the survey values ​​from the beginning of April 2019, which Infratest Dimap has determined:

  • CDU / CSU: 30%
  • SPD: 17%
  • Green: 19%
  • FDP: 7%
  • AfD: 11%
  • The Left: 7%
  • Other: 9%

The publication of election polls in Germany is waived in the week before the election, so as to rule out any possible influence on voters. This also applies to the polls and forecasts for the European elections in May, which we will update regularly until then.

Reader poll: Are you taking part in the 2019 European elections?

What happens until the European election result on election night?

The so-called 18 hour forecast is based on interviews that take place on election day. After the ballot, randomly selected polling stations are randomly selected Voters from polling institutes asked which party they voted for, Because voters are interviewed directly after leaving the polling station, they also talk about "exit polls". The voters give their answers anonymously and in writing. It's practically a second, unofficial, election. However, the results are only reliable if voters respond truthfully.

In addition to the voting decision, other characteristics of the persons are also queried. For example, it is possible to analyze which voter migrations have taken place or which sections of the population have voted particularly frequently for a particular party.

Unlike the official election, the votes are counted, compiled and evaluated before the polls are closed. Thus, already at 18 o'clock a reliable prognosis for the European Election 2019 results. The prognosis is a representative survey, which is naturally subject to a certain fault tolerance.

In the forecast, only the vote of the citizens who voted on election day can be recorded. Postal votes are not included. This forecast will also be announced punctually on TV at 6pm, or in the live stream, which you can find at merkur.de *, for example.

Also read: Apply for a postal vote for the 2019 European elections: That's how it works

Despite the fault tolerance, the forecast is very precise on the final result, as a comparison of the 2014 European elections shows:

forecast ARD

36.0%

27.5%

11.0%

8.0%

6.5%

forecast ZDF

36.0%

27.5%

10.5%

7.5%

6.5%

end result

35.3%

27.3%

10.7%

7.4%

7.1%

Forecast and actual result of the European elections

The projections for the 2019 European elections on election night are the first to receive reliable partial results.

© dpa / Oliver Dietze

The 6 o'clock forecast forms the basis for the extrapolations that follow in the course of election night. There are regularly updated projections that incorporate the constituency count results. In the course of the evening, they are approaching more and more the actual result of the 2019 European elections. As more and more constituencies report their results, they are becoming increasingly important. The weight of the forecasts decreases at the same time. Moreover, calculation models can correct regional variations in the calculation of the forecast, but the European election results from the constituencies give a more reliable picture.

At the 2014 European elections, the ARD published its first extrapolation of the election night after just ten minutes.

Read here: The day of the 2014 European elections in the live ticker

If you would like to get the results from your constituency directly, you can look at the counting in the polling station. It is a public event to which visitors are admitted.

Preliminary results of the European elections on election night

At the late hour, the provisional official final result is usually determined during the night after the election evening. This is composed of the results obtained from the electoral districts through various instances to the Federal Returning Officer. The transmission of the results is done by telephone or electronically.

At the end, the Federal Returning Officer is also the one who announces the official final result. This happens after the counted votes and the electoral notes have also come to him through various instances and the Federal Electoral Committee has met. Among other things, the ballot papers and irregularities that resulted from the count have been documented in the electoral notes.

If the official final result of the European elections is known, the Federal Returning Officer notifies the selected candidates. After the results of the European elections in 2019 have been largely determined since the election day, the notification of the selected candidates is only a formal act.

At the previous general election the official final result was fixed 18 days after election day, For the European elections in 2019, which takes place on 26 May, the Federal Returning Officer expects according to own data for the 24th of June with a final result.

In other countries it takes much longer on election night until the votes are counted. For example, at the 2019 European elections in Italy, the polling stations close at 11 pm.

More helpful information on the 2019 European elections

If you are still undecided as to which party to vote for in the 2019 European elections on 26 May, you can consult Wahl-O-Mat on the 2019 European elections. Based on your answers to key questions of the 2019 European elections, the tool will assess which party you are ideologically closest to.

In Germany, 41 parties will be attending the European elections in 2019. We give you an overview of the election programs of the parties currently represented in a state parliament or in the Bundestag.

In the past European elections, the turnout in Germany was only 48 percent. This was above the EU-wide average of 42.6 percent. A campaign will mobilize additional voters to increase voter turnout in the 2019 European elections.

European Elections 2019: Results, reactions and more in the live ticker

On election night we keep you up to date with our information. In our news ticker for the European Election 2019 we will inform you about forecasts, extrapolations, results and reactions. Of course, a parallel election is also taking place in Bremen. That's why we keep you updated on the results of the 2019 election. We also take a look at the other countries that vote on Sunday, for example, with the news ticker on European elections in France.

dg

* merkur.de is part of the nationwide Ippen digital editorial network

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