Ridwan Kamil, Golkar, and Jokowi’s Grand Strategy

Rewrite this contentJOIN IT National political observers tend to interpret Ridwan Kamil or Kang Emil into the Golkar Party as part of the political scenario of Airlangga Hartarto and the United Indonesia Coalition (KIB). The official presence of Ridwan Kamil as a cadre within the Golkar Party is seen as an additional force to gain presidential candidate status or as a substitute for Airlangga Hartarto as a potential presidential candidate from Golkar and KIB. The problem with such a political meaning is that first, Airlangga Hartarto is not a potential candidate who has high electability in existing political surveys. Even Ridwan Kamil’s electability score is much better than Airlangga Hartarto. What this means is that assuming Ridwan Kamil as the vice-presidential candidate for Airlangga Hartarto is electorally unreasonable because Airlangga’s electability figure is barely strong enough to appoint himself as a presidential candidate in the eyes of other political parties. So assuming Ridwan Kamil’s registration as a Golkar cadre is part of Airlangga’s scenario to get a running mate for the vice presidential candidate is highly irrational in practical politics. In fact, in my opinion, this assumption actually failed before it developed on the one hand. And more than that, I’m sure Ridwan Kamil thinks so too. Registering as a Golkar cadre to prepare to run as a running mate for Airlangga Hartarto in 2024 is not a political attraction that will make Ridwan Kamil decide to become a cadre for the party with the banyan tree symbol. Because the “prize” that he will pursue is not in accordance with the political potential that exists in Airlangga Hartarto. Of course Ridwan Kamil can easily calculate that. Second, assuming Ridwan Kamil as a presidential candidate who will replace Airlangga Hartarto also makes little sense electorally. As I wrote some time ago about Ridwan Kamil’s potential, the best qualification for Ridwan Kamil to participate in the 2024 presidential election is as a vice presidential candidate, both electoral politics and cultural geography. If Ridwan Kamil becomes the presidential candidate from KIB, the question is, who is the vice presidential candidate? Airlangga Hartarto or Sandiaga Uno, who, let’s just say, succeeded in making peace with Gerindra and moving to the United Development Party? In my opinion, it doesn’t feel right and also lacks political power. Ridwan Kamil and Sandiaga Uno have potential qualifications as vice presidential candidates. If forced to become a candidate for president and vice president, I believe the political energy will not be great. So, how do you interpret the event of Ridwan Kamil joining Golkar? In my opinion, the registration event is not an independent event, but is part of a large political dialogue between Jokowi and the Nasdem Party and Surya Paloh on the one hand and also a political dialogue between Jokowi-Ganjar Pranowo-Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDIP) on the other. The first big assumption is that KIB is one of Jokowi’s political infrastructures which is technically entrusted to Airlangga Hartarto and KIB. So by bringing Ridwan Kamil to the Golkar and KIB Party strongholds, this is part of Jokowi’s action to ‘revenge’ Nasdem and Surya Paloh. When Ridwan Kamil became Mayor of Bandung, the main political infrastructure was Gerindra and the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS). Then in the middle of the road, Ridwan Kamil was picked up by Nasdem and then advanced as a candidate for governor of West Java with Nasdem and PPP (the current West Java Deputy Governor’s party). Then, when Anies Baswedan left Jokowi’s government, Gerindra and PKS took Anies and made him the winner of the 2017 DKI Pilkada. However, towards the end of Anies Baswedan’s tenure as Governor of DKI Jakarta, Nasdem did the same thing, namely annexing Anies Baswedan from Gerindra and PKS. So, when Nasdem had the upper hand because he succeeded in taking on figures raised by Gerindra and PKS, one of them was Ridwan Kamil, Ridwan Kamil suddenly changed direction to Golkar, which I assumed above was Jokowi’s political infrastructure. Even Ridwan Kamil still serves as Governor of West Java with the support of the Nasdem and PPP coalition in the West Java DPRD. So Airlangga Hartarto’s move to bring Ridwan Kamil to Golkar is part of Jokowi’s dialogue with Nasdem and Surya Paloh. This time, Jokowi ‘hit’ Nasdem by taking Ridwan Kamil as revenge for Nasdem and Surya Paloh’s decision to make Anies Baswedan the presidential candidate for the Nasdem Party. This means that Jokowi, Airlangga Hartarto and KIB closed the opportunity for Nasdem and Surya Paloh to lead Ridwan Kamil to partner Anies Baswedan. Because, however, if Anies Baswedan and Ridwan Kamil are paired, then the two of them become potential partners to defeat whoever the candidate Jokowi supports later. Second, Ridwan Kamil’s registration to Golkar is Jokowi’s political move to prepare a figure who will become Ganjar Pranowo’s running mate in the 2024 presidential election, if Ganjar Pranowo fails to become a presidential candidate from the PDIP. As I mentioned above, KIB is Jokowi’s political infrastructure in case the candidate supported by Jokowi, Ganjar Pranowo, does not receive a mandate from PDIP to run for the 2024 democratic party. If in the future Ganjar Pranowo is not supported by Megawati Soekarnoputri, then dares to be opposite the PDIP by deciding to run with a coalition of other parties, then KIB is his main choice, where Ridwan Kamil is Ganjar Pranowo’s potential partner to beat Anies Baswedan, Prabowo Subianto, and Puan Empress. As I wrote some time ago, Ridwan Kamil is the most ideal vice president partner for Ganjar Pranowo. Both served as governors and both had large voter bases. Just look at Ridwan Kamil’s political modality on social media, for example, with a much larger Instagram follower than the other vice presidential candidates. Apart from that, both of them are popular figures who have attracted the attention of the younger generation, starting from the millennial, Y, and Z generations. Moreover, the voters in the 2024 election will be dominated by young voters from these three generation categories. Based on recent CSIS (Center for Strategic and International Studies) research, the portion of young voters (aged 17-39 years) in the 2024 election is around 60 percent. Added to this is the fact that both of them come from two provinces that have a large number of voters. The combination of two large ballot pools plus the potential for voters who are no less large outside the two provinces is a political modality that no other candidate has. So it can’t be helped, the pair Ganjar Pranowo and Ridwan Kamil will be a pair of presidential and vice presidential candidates who have the potential to win the most votes in the 2024 election. Even if it turns out that Ganjar Pranowo was not nominated by Megawati Soekarnoputri, but Ganjar Pranowo himself is reluctant to betray the party that raised him, namely the PDIP, then Ridwan Kamil and KIB will be offered by Jokowi to the Gerindra camp as vice presidential candidates for Prabowo Subianto, which is also said to be wrong a candidate whom Jokowi will trust to become his successor, if the plan to advance Ganjar Pranowo does not go according to plan. Pairing Prabowo Subianto and Ridwan Kamil also has the potential to defeat Anies Baswedan and whoever his deputy will be on the one hand and Puan Maharani with whoever his partner will be on the other. Prabowo Subianto has clearly become one of the top three presidential candidates according to survey institutions, while Ridwan Kamil is one of the potential vice presidential candidates who also comes from a region with very large potential voters. So from an electoral political perspective and from practical politics (Jokowi’s interests), Prabowo Subianto and Ridwan Kamil are the second best pair after Ganjar Pranowo and Ridwan Kamil who will represent Jokowi’s vote in the 2024 election. In short, Ridwan Kamil’s registration as a Golkar cadre was not an independent event, but a political event that became part of the political “puzzle” being played by Jokowi and Airlangga Hartarto (KIB) in symbolic dialogue with the two big camps, namely Surya Paloh and Megawati Soekarnoputri. And in my opinion, the move this time is very “nice” and genius and includes the qualification maneuvers of a King Maker. Get updates featured news and breaking news every day from Kompas.com. Let’s join the Telegram Group “Kompas.com News Update”, how to click the link https://t.me/kompascomupdate, then join. You must first install the Telegram application on your cellphone. and add more content about Ridwan Kamil, Golkar, and Jokowi’s Grand Strategy