The political analyst sees almost zero the possibility that the New Ideas party will achieve 43 delegations, but if it happens, he believes that the country will have a strong setback.
The chances that the New Ideas party Simple majority reach (43 deputies) in the Legislative Assembly in the next elections of 2021 are low.
In the opinion of political analyst Salvador Samayoa, the system in El Salvador is designed so that there is a plurality of parties and not so that the same party control most state institutions.
“It is not easy for the large parties to obtain more deputies than we have seen. ARENA obtained 37 deputies the last time because the FMLN had a wild fall. Even so, he did not reach 43. New ideas it could approach 43 with a devastating vote as in the presidential one, “he valued in an interview on channel 33.
Nayib Bukele was elected president in 2019 with 53.8% of valid votes; but only half of the registered Salvadorans voted. The electoral participation that year was 51.8%; a low turnout compared to the last three presidential elections in El Salvador. This and the fact that the election is configured differently from the previous one, lead Samayoa to see almost zero a legislative scenario controlled by New Ideas.
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The fact that this time there is no vote for a single political figure opens the possibilities for traditional and emerging parties to win voters in the municipalities, he said.
“This is not an election where a Bukele presidency is faced with other parties, this is an election where in each jurisdiction there are specific and known people. Bukele was a person. Now it is not a person, it is an election of 262 candidates “.
But in the event that the New Ideas party reaches a simple majority, Samayoa predicts a setback for the country of between 20 and 25 years. “If New Ideas has a simple majority, it would be a misfortune from which it would take us 20 or 25 years to recover”.
The analyst believes that high-profile government corruption cases have shown that ethics and transparency they are not qualities of the current management.
“Corruption and nepotism are gross things, like the information of the official who is the chief of staff and had seven members of her family (in government), among others. With this I am not saying that NI cannot have several delegations, yes, but from that to having a majority, no. I don’t see ARENA falling below 20 deputies and the FMLN from 15 ”.
The stage for the new
In the emerging parties there are several faces that have not been seen before in parliamentary politics. This is positive, Samayoa believes, since renewal in both emerging and traditional ones is a fact that can bring new proposals. Success will depend on whether they are able to focus these proposals on specific municipalities.
“I think we are going to have a fairly fresh offer. (…) The ones that Nuestro Tiempo has seem to me to be quite solid. They have a coherent, fresh approach, they are clean people, something that the ruling party cannot boast “.
Our time he has focused his proposal on a small group of mayors. Some of these are: Juayúa, San Miguel, Ciudad Delgado, Mejicanos, Aguilares, among others, and for councils they have candidates in Santa Ana, San Miguel, San Salvador and others that do not exceed seven.
The Vamos party has candidates in four departments and at least 15 proposals for municipal councils.
In the PDC he sees strong opposition to the candidacy of Rodolfo Parker. Samayoa believes that Parker’s approaches to the pandemic and the government’s actions have been consistent.
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