There are questions about the success of Western sanctions, which are the largest ever imposed on Moscow, and have they achieved the goals of stopping or calming Russian operations in Ukraine? In the second year of the war in Ukraine, Russia managed to maintain an economic position, as it was able to escape the sanctions, and even achieved the highest surplus in the trade balance of the G20 countries, at about $291 billion, in 2022.
There are many approaches to avoiding or easing these sanctions, and the world does not fully stand with Western approaches towards the Ukrainian issue, just as there are pivotal countries in the world from an economic point of view, such as China, that continue to deal with Russia away from the sanctions that have not stopped and will not stop. In addition to the BRICS countries, which include (Russia, China, South Africa, India and Brazil), which provide clear support for the Moscow government, under different names, but which are in the interest of Russia. In addition, sanctions (i.e. sanctions) did not resolve any military confrontation at all in the past. Political settlements were necessary in the end.
When the Russian economy continues in its current state amid the aforementioned war, this does not mean, of course, that it is in a good position. Rather, there are indicators and facts on the ground that confirm the extent of the impact of Western sanctions on the Russian arena, including the migration of capital, the halting of all Western projects in this arena, the high cost of living in general, the difficulty of accessing the global financial system, the vibration of the national currency, and the faltering of access. To Western technology assistance in various sectors of the country. And other things began to appear to confirm the real negative effects resulting from sanctions that are renewed and added to from time to time. In the end, however, Russian President Putin was able to provide the necessary military supplies to his force, reinforcing the belief that sanctions have failed to undermine his military efforts.
The Russian economy is suffering, but it remains able to breathe for the aforementioned reasons, in addition to the failure of the West to consolidate the circle of besieging this economy, especially by influential countries (China and India at least), and this gap in the circle will give Russia’s economy more support and oxygen to continue despite stumbling. Time remains the most important factor for the West to reach its goal of striking the Russian economy. This strike means one thing for the West, which is weakening the Russian military capabilities in Ukraine, and reaching a solution to this crisis, which is the most dangerous since World War II.
The clearest example in this regard lies in the huge Western sanctions imposed on Iran many years ago. It is true that the situation of the Iranian economy has become in trouble as a result of these sanctions, but it is also true that this did not resolve the dispute between the two parties and did not limit the confrontation between them. The time required by the sanctions weapon in general will be very long, especially with Moscow’s ability to bypass some of the sanctions imposed on it, with the presence of “collaborators” to play the role of assistant in this field.
And when Russia’s ability to (economically) continue the war in Ukraine ceases, then sanctions advocates can say they are working. But this is difficult and will not be in the short term. Perhaps the most important point in this is that the sanctions, before any real shake-up of the local economy, can change the Kremlin’s positions on the Ukrainian issue, which has become the main concern of all Western countries, regardless of some minor political differences between these or those countries, regarding the shape of the end of the entire crisis.
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