Shaken in the US by the death of Judge Ruth Bader Ginsburg

Within it tumultuous of the 2020 in the United States, the year of ‘impeachment de Donald Trump, of the irruption of the pandemic of coronavirus that has already left in the country almost 200,000 dead and one economic crisis and the renewed explosion of protests and tensions over the racial injustice, the electoral campaign in which Trump seeks re-election against Joe Biden He followed certain relatively stable patterns within the volatile nature of everything in the US since the Republican came to power. 46 days before the elections, however, any idea of ​​even remote normality was blown up on Friday, when the Supreme court announced that Ruth Bader Ginsburg, emblematic progressive judge, had deceased at 87 for pancreatic cancers.

The death of the magistrate, and what happens now for fill your vacations, open one political war that can be guaranteed bloody. What happens, despite being mired in a torrent of questions, you will have long-term insurance a fundamental impact in the coming decades of a country where the decisions of the Supreme Court touch everything and where if Trump managed to place a third judge or judge, tras Neil Gorsuch y Brett Kavanaugh, would settle a overwhelming conservative majority 6-3. In the immediate, in any case, already and radically alters the electoral race.

For Trump, who despite having cut the great advantages that Biden had given him in the polls, was still dragged behind especially by his criticized management of the pandemic, the opportunity opens up to redirect campaign to his favorite terrain, that of the deep culture wars that have been exacerbated in a politically polarized country. And while on Friday he reacted with unusual restraint to the news of RBG’s death, focusing exclusively on his first two public messages in praising “a amazing woman& rdquor; and one “titan of law& rdquor ;, this Saturday has leapt into battle.

“¡Sin demora!”

“We were placed in this position of power and importance to make decisions by the people who chose us with pride, the most important of which has long been considered the selection of Supreme Court justices,” he wrote on Twitter in a message. in which you have tagged the Republican Party, which controls the Senate, in charge of the confirmation processes of federal judges, one of the areas where Trump has more than fulfilled his promises to his voters. “We have this obligation, sin demora!”

Your main ally is Mitch McConnell, leader of the Republican majority in the Upper House, which already on Friday had issued a statement announcing that the Senate would vote for whoever Trump nominates.

It is the same McConnell as in 2016, when conservative judge Antonin Scalia passed away more than seven months before the elections and Barack Obama nominated a centrist replacement, blocked and prevented the confirmation process from even starting. He then argued that doing so during an election year would prevent Americans from having a voice in the selection process, a message that Democrats have recovered since Friday. Now the senator, unmoved by the denunciations of hypocrisy e incoherence, says that the circumstances are different because the White House and the Senate are controlled by the same party.

Despite Trump and McConnell’s message timing is unclear they intend to continue in this process. The White House has refused to talk about it this Saturday and the Senate leader has urged his fellow ranks not to make statements to the press of their plans that could compromise them later.

In their equations there are many unknowns, including what position some Republican senators who face a difficult reelection will take or if the timing of the process will allow it to be done before the elections. In any case, whatever happens at the polls on November 3, Republicans have the Senate control secured until January 3, 2021 and they could vote even if they lose the majority or if Trump is not re-elected. In addition, in an election in which the ghosts of a war for results, which could end in the Supreme as in the 2000, the last thing they want is a court with eight members and no guaranteed conservative majority.

Democratic mobilization

Bader Ginsburg herself, who resisted calls to withdraw during Obama’s term to facilitate the Democrat to relieve him with a younger progressive judge, was aware of what his death would represent during the term of Trump, a president whom he reached to to call “impostor& rdquor; (in an episode for which he later apologized, although not for what he had said but for having said it in public). And as revealed by NPR, he dictated to his granddaughter a few days before dying a statement: “My fervent wish is nor be replaced until a new president takes office”.

That is the commitment to which, even with the wind against the Senate, they have now committed Biden, Kamala Harris (who sits on the upper house judicial committee) and the Democrats, among which more and more voices are raised urging to include in the campaign the promise that, if they win in November, the number of judges will increase in the Supreme Court to break the conservative majority.

The electoral calculations they work now at full speed in the two fields. And it is true for Trump and the Republicans that the opening of the Supreme Court vacancy may be an element of mobilization of the conservative vote, especially the religious one and the one that moves by the radical opposition to the abortion, and of fundraising, where the Republican campaign was in more trouble than Biden’s, but the same is true of the Democrats.

The mobilization of the progressive vote was already experienced in the elections legislative after confirmation of Kavanaugh. And on Friday itself, in the two hours following the announcement of Bader Ginsburg’s death, Democrats beat collection records.

The transcendental importance of the Supreme

Since the judiciary is only one of the three branches of government in the United States together with the Executive and the Legislative, it is impossible to minimize the transcendental relevance and impact who have in the whole life of the country Supreme Court and its magistrates.

The High Court, established by the Judicial Law of 1879, is the last instance to which those seeking justice can turn. Is similar to the Spanish Constitution, guarantor and interpreter of the fundamental law protections, rights and freedoms. And its sentences reach all aspects of American life, from central issues in the daily lives of its citizens to the distribution of powers or the balance in a federal system between the states and the government of Washington.

his determining influence is also marked by the lifetime position of its judges, who only abandon the position due to death, if they decide to retire or due to impeachment (although there has only been one case of the latter).

Nominated by presidents and confirmed by the Senate, they traditionally follow the ideological lines of the occupant of the White House, leaving a conservative or progressive footprint for years and decades after the president who chose them leaves office.

The number of magistrates that compose it (currently nine) it is established by federal law, not the Constitution, and before the 60s of the 19th century moved between five and ten.