Shares closed the month with gains of up to 90% and investors are already thinking about June: what experts expect

The month ended with some economic uncertainty due to high inflation and a rising dollarbut for several savers the results were pure “celebration” because the stock papers not only outperformed said variables by far, but also the increases in the prices of certain stocks were up 90% in all of Mayespecially in several that are listed in the General Panel.

In short, the main index of shares of leading companies, which is the Merval, rose 14.8%a level that far exceeded the rise estimated by analysts for the consumer price index (CPI) in the same period, close to 9%.

Also the progress of the papers of the companies was much higher than the progress that the dollar had, since both in the official wholesale market and in the stock market it increased an average of 7.8% per month.

Even some actions leading companies climbed up to 33% in May, as was the case with Mirgor. They followed cablevision (27%) y Shipping company of Gas del Norte (TGN), with more than 24%.

But The real center of attention was the General Panel, which is the one where companies that generate operations for limited volumes are listed, and therefore with a certain volatility, where escalations of up to 90% were registered, as was the case of Inversora Juramento. Then came Molinos Agro (Mola) (72%), Carlos Casado (69%), Havanna (65%) and San Miguel, with 64%.

“Was the month of the General Panel and non-traditional dollar linked hedges“, affirms iProfessional Mauro Mazzaportfolio manager de Bull Market.

May ended with strong generalized increases in pesos and dollars for Argentine stocks and bonds.

Celebration investors: other increases in May

However, the good results for Argentine assets were reflected in other areas. National stocks listed on Wall Street also showed strong increases, as were the cases of Despegar (22%) and Globant, which advanced 17% in US currency.

On the domestic fixed income side, May left general gains in the Argentine bonds since they registered increases of up to 17%as were the cases of dollar securities with maturities at years 2041 (AL41) and 2038 (AE38). Then other nominees in US currency were located, such as the Global that ends in 2030 (GD30) (16%) and paper maturing in 2029 (AL29), with an increase of 15%.

Even if you take the Merval measured in dollars, the advance in the month was almost 6%. And in all of 2023, in pesos, scale 69%.

“Despite the rise in interest rates, we note that investors currently prefer to expose themselves to indexed assets, that is, whose payment at maturity reflects the evolution of inflation, the official exchange rate, or both variables. This is observed in the prices of assets of this nature and in the tenders of the Ministry of Economy”, he maintains to iProfessional Melina of Naples, Wealth Management Analyst at Balanz.

Regarding the high increases that were observed in the General Panel, which reached up to 90%, Mazza points out that “it was an excellent month for this market with a nominal volume record” negotiated in papers such as San Miguel, Carlos Casado and Molinos Agro, and that “were indicative of this coverage.” He also adds to “exotic companies and obviously the entire universe of Cedearsbut focused on technology”.

And as for the Leader Panel, he mentions that the highlight was Mirgorafter the announcements about exporting to new places, such as Paraguay.

Argentine dollar-denominated bonds rose as much as 17% in all of May. Meanwhile, the shares climbed up to 90% in the month.

What to invest in in June

in full climate of pre-election tension, analysts now recommend investing in hedge assets against the advance of inflation and the dollar.

“In principle, for June there is still a marked excess of pesos that will continue to put pressure on the goods and currency market, but also on the stock market. We continue to prefer energy companies and hedging with hard dollar assets for fear that it could cause another round of exchange rate adjustments. For those who have to maintain positions in pesos, some hedging strategies with synthetics continue to offer good returns, as well as negotiable obligations (ON) in dollars”says iProfessional Paul RepettoHead of Research at Aurum.

by the side of Juan Diedrichs, Capital Markets analyst, believes that “these prices I see a Interesting history in Argentine public titlessuch as bonds due 2030 in dollars with local law (AL30) and with New York law (GD30).

Meanwhile, for variable income options, complete: “I still like the energy sector, that with the recommissioning of the trans-Andean pipeline, after almost two decades of inactivity, it will allow oil to be exported to Chile. There are projects under study to expand capacity and substitute imports. That’s why I choose Vista, TGS, TGN, YPF and Pampa Energía“.

While, Gonzalo Gavinafinancial advisor to PPi, suggests, in terms of positive expectations, that for the second semester “I would keep an eye on YPF and Pampa Energía. YPF is a firm that has been exceeding its balance sheets in each presentation and with the intention of clearing two important liabilities, which are two lawsuits that it had in its portfolio and that a priori should end in a good way”.

In this regard, he stresses that the state oil company has an “extremely attractive line of business ahead, a highly diversified business, with Dead cow to the head. It has the gas, agricultural, chemical, and conventional crude business, therefore, given its fundamentals and scenario, if it is accompanied by a change of government with logical policies and legal certainty, there are great opportunities ahead.”

For his part, Gaviña also points out that Pampa Energía stands out for its “good balance, is doing things very well, with super logical management and a good business agenda”.-

2023-05-31 22:16:25

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