Shen Zhou: The success or failure of the Liaoning during the Russian-Ukrainian War | Aircraft Carrier | J-15 | Missile

[Epoch Times, May 16, 2022]On May 1, the Japanese Self-Defense Force announced that the CCP’s Liaoning aircraft carrier fleet crossed the Miyako Strait and entered the Pacific Ocean; two weeks later, the Liaoning began to return. The Russian-Ukrainian war completely exposed the strength of the Russian army. At this time, the CCP wanted to make the aircraft carrier that lacked combat power appear again, and deliberately practiced a simulated attack on Taiwan, which was a big failure.

J-15Still only air combat, not air strikes

The performance of Russia, which ranks second in the world’s military power, in actual combat is astounding. The performance of weapons and equipment, tactical literacy, supplies and overall combat capabilities have all revealed their true colors. Most of the CCP’s main battle equipment comes from Russia, which soon caused the outside world to re-evaluate the CCP’s third-ranked military force; the CCP was unwilling to keep a low profile, and still sent the Liaoning aircraft carrier to sea for drills, which made the outside world constantly see through the true combat power of the CCP’s aircraft carrier. .

Russia’s only aircraft carrier, the Marshal Kuznetsov, is still lying in the repair shop, missing the Russian-Ukrainian war, but it also avoids the risk of being sunk like the cruiser Moscow. The second ship of the Marshal Kuznetsov-class aircraft carrier is the Vagryan, the predecessor of the Liaoning. The Su-33 (Su-33) carrier-based aircraft developed by the former Soviet Union was not successful, and Russia could only let the MiG-29 (Mig-29) on the ship; the CCP continued to develop the J-15 on the basis of the Su-33, which is still today. It cannot fully assume the functions of an aircraft carrier.

On May 3, the CCP’s fleet carried out carrier-based aircraft take-off and landing training in the waters near Okinawa, Japan. The Japan Self-Defense Force took a photo of the J-15’s bottom-mounted weapons, showing that two medium-range air-to-air missiles were mounted under the belly of the aircraft. It should be PL-12; a short-range air-to-air missile is mounted under the wings on both sides, which should be PL-8. This is similar to the situation at the end of 2021.

In December 2021, the Liaoning aircraft carrier practiced the take-off and landing of the J-15 in the hinterland of the Japanese archipelago. The Japanese Self-Defense Forces captured the bottom of the J-15 many times, and also mounted 4 air-to-air missiles. No sea or anti-aircraft missiles were seen. ground-attack missiles or precision-guided bombs, etc. This shows that the J-15 carried by the Liaoning still does not have the ability to strike against the sea and the ground. It can only cope with possible air battles. It is mainly used for defense, and cannot launch air strikes. It has not demonstrated the attack capability of an aircraft carrier. The Shandong is being maintained at the shipyard, and the Liaoning does not seem to be fully loaded with the J-15 when it goes to sea. In the pictures released by the Japanese Self-Defense Forces, only 9 J-15s can be seen on the deck of the Liaoning at most.

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On May 3, the Chinese aircraft carrier Liaoning entered the Pacific Ocean from the Miyako Strait, and conducted carrier-based aircraft take-off and landing training in the waters near Okinawa, Japan. The bottom of the J-15 fighter photographed by the Japan Self-Defense Forces has two air-to-air mounted under the belly. The missile should be PL-12; there is an air-to-air missile mounted on each side, which should be PL-8. (Japanese Self-Defense Forces, Epoch Times Cartography)

The air-to-air missiles of the CCP’s fighter jets are knockoffs

The PL-8 short-range air-to-air missile carried by the CCP’s fighter jets is derived from the Israeli air-to-air missile Python-3 (Python-3) in the 1980s. It first provided parts to the CCP for assembly, and later authorized production and localization. Today, Israel’s Python-5 air-to-air missile is in service; India’s Tejas fighter jets use Israel’s Python-4 and Python-5 missiles; Thailand and Singapore fighter jets use Python-4; Vietnam and The Philippine fighter jet uses the Python-5; the CCP is still using the Thunderbolt-8, which imitates the Python-3.

The CCP’s PL-12 medium-range air-to-air missile is an imitation of the Italian Aspide missile. The Aspeder missile is similar to the American AIM-7 Sparrow missile. The United States has authorized Italian production, and Italy has improved and developed the Aspeder missile. The CCP imported parts for assembly in 1989, and was subsequently embargoed due to the Tiananmen massacre. On this basis, the CCP improved and developed the PL-12 and PL-15, and claimed to be comparable to the American AIM-120 advanced medium-range air-to-air missile.

The J-15 may be able to deal with the F-15 of the United States and Japan and the F-16 of Taiwan, but it is obviously not an opponent of the F-35 and the F-22. The CCP’s carrier-based aircraft, carrying two copied air-to-air missiles, appeared off the eastern coast of Taiwan, and from May 6 to 12, they simulated a combat drill to attack Taiwan. The CCP Military Network also reported that from May 6 to 8, the Eastern Theater Command organized naval, air, and constant guided troops to conduct actual military exercises in the sea and airspace east and southwest of Taiwan Island, but there were no details.

On May 1, the CCP’s Liaoning aircraft carrier and escort fleet entered the Pacific Ocean from the Miyako Strait. The Japanese Self-Defense Force’s Izumo helicopter carrier and maritime patrol aircraft followed in real time, and sent fighter jets to deal with the CCP’s carrier-based aircraft. The Chinese fleet drilled in the waters off Okinawa on May 3, and then approached the eastern waters of Taiwan for drills. On May 14, it began to return along the same route. (Japanese Self-Defense Forces, Epoch Times Cartography)

The drill to simulate attacking Taiwan lacks practical significance

According to information released by the Taiwan Ministry of Defense:

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On May 5, the CCP dispatched 6 fighter aircraft, including 2 H-6 bombers; 1 Air Police-500 early warning aircraft; 1 Yun-8 anti-submarine aircraft; 1 Yun-8 long-distance dry aircraft; 1 Ka-28 anti-submarine helicopter .

On May 6, the CCP dispatched 20 fighter aircraft, including 2 H-6 bombers; 6 J-16 fighters; 6 J-11 fighters; 2 Air Police-500 early warning aircraft; 1 Yun-8 anti-submarine aircraft; 8 far-dry machines 1 sortie.

On May 7, the CCP dispatched 5 fighter aircraft, including 2 H-6 bombers; 1 Air Police-500 early warning aircraft; 1 Yun-8 anti-submarine aircraft; and 1 Yun-8 long-distance dry aircraft.

In the past three days, the CCP’s H-6 bomber circled eastern Taiwan and should conduct a joint exercise with the Liaoning carrier-based aircraft. At most, the J-15 can only escort the H-6 bomber in the eastern waters of Taiwan for a short time, but during the long-distance flight of the H-6 bomber from the mainland to Taiwan Island, there is no fighter escort, which makes similar exercises lose their practical value.

The CCP dispatched an aircraft carrier fleet, escorted by multiple destroyers, and also equipped with a supply ship. It took a lot of effort and could only cooperate with 2 H-6 bombers flying from the mainland, which can really provide the air strike capability. Really limited. Two H-6 bombers can only carry a few long-range air-to-surface missiles at most, and do not dare to enter the range of Taiwan’s air defense missiles; Chinese destroyers can also launch land-attack missiles, and the scale of the attack should exceed that of bombers. The CCP aircraft carrier’s unnecessary drills lacked practicality, and completely exposed the frailty of combat power.

On May 5, the Japanese Self-Defense Forces photographed the Chinese aircraft carrier Liaoning with black smoke. (Japan Self-Defense Forces)

The sinking of the Moscow may herald the fate of the Chinese fleet

According to the information released by the Japanese Self-Defense Forces, the Chinese fleet had a total of 7 ships when it went to sea, which should include the Liaoning aircraft carrier, 1 Type 055 destroyer, 3 Type 052D destroyers, 1 054A frigate and 1 supply ship; there were 3 ships in the middle. Returning early, I don’t know if the supply is limited, or there may be a malfunction. In the end, only 1 aircraft carrier, 2 destroyers, and 1 supply ship were left in the Chinese fleet.

During the Russian-Ukrainian War, there was a big problem with the supply of the Russian army, which resulted in the inability to continue the offensive and was repeatedly ambushed. The Chinese Navy also has serious supply problems. Diesel-powered aircraft carriers cannot be deployed in the ocean, and they have to return after about half a month of dispatch. If there is a real war, once the supply ships are lost, the CCP fleet may be at risk of not being able to return to port, let alone fighting.

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The sinking of the Moskva, the flagship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, once again demonstrated the deadly threat to the fleet from shore-based anti-ship missiles. The CCP’s North Sea Fleet or part of the East China Sea Fleet will be attacked by anti-ship missiles at any time from the Miyako Strait in northern Taiwan. In actual combat, it is likely that they will not be able to go out to sea at all, let alone the eastern seas of Taiwan. Similar drills are meaningless. The CCP’s South China Sea Fleet is also unable to cross the Bashi Strait in southern Taiwan.

On May 4, the USS Los Angeles-class attack submarine USS Annapolis (SSN 760) was loaded with a Mark 67 underwater mobile mine in Guam. (US Navy)

In addition to the fixed and mobile shore-mounted anti-ship missiles deployed by the United States, Japan, and Taiwan, the Harpoon anti-ship missiles, torpedoes and mines carried by US submarines may all bury the Chinese fleet on the seabed. The US F-35 stealth fighter carries precision-guided bombs , can also quietly destroy the CCP fleet, and the long-range anti-ship missiles carried by the B-1B and B-52 bombers are even more.

The air defense and anti-missile systems of the CCP’s fleet are also basically from Russia. Although they claim to have more advanced radar, their actual defense capabilities are probably half that of the Russian army. If they encounter electronic interference from the U.S. military, they may only be beaten.

On May 13, 16 F-16CM fighter jets of the US Air Force; 12 F-35A Lightning II fighter jets, 2 E-2C Hawkeye early warning aircraft, 1 CH-47 helicopter of the Japan Air Self-Defense Force; 1 EA of the US Navy -18G Growler electric fighter jets, a C-12 Huron transport aircraft and a P-8 Poseidon patrol aircraft demonstrate an elephant walk at Misawa Air Force Base in Japan. (US Air Force)


The Russian army exposed its real combat power, and the CCP fleet did not show weakness, and took the initiative to show its shortcomings. The security alarms of Western countries are sounding, but the CCP has to imitate the posture of the Russian military Chen Bing in Ukraine, and openly provocatively in the Taiwan Strait can only promote NATO to expand into the Indo-Pacific region more quickly.

The Chinese aircraft carrier dispatched, or tried to form an antagonism with the Russian army, to a certain extent to contain the US military, in order to reduce the pressure on the Russian army, and sent an extremely dangerous signal to the outside world. While NATO and Western countries continue to weaken Russia, they will be more vigilant against the CCP. Perhaps before the Russian military is completely overwhelmed, the targets of various countries will focus on turning to the periphery of the Taiwan Strait and directly targeting the CCP.

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Responsible editor: Gao Yi#