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should we expect food riots in Africa and the Middle East?

THE CHEKING PROCESS – Several politicians fear that the shortage of wheat will cause a wave of popular uprisings like in 2008, when certain poor countries were hit hard by the rise in grain prices.

THE QUESTION. This is one of the consequences of the war waged by Vladimir Putin, and not the least. Russia and Ukraine alone produce 15% of the world’s wheat. In view of the sanctions against the first, and the devastation of the territories of the second, whatever the duration of the conflict, the economic consequences will be unprecedented, and are already being felt. The price per tonne has already exploded to around €400, double what it cost last November.

In the show “France in the face of warbroadcast on TF1 on Monday, candidate Marine Le Pen warned of the potential effects of this inflation, deeming certain sanctions against Russia inconsequential. “If we prevent the export of this wheat, all the Maghreb countries, as well as Egypt, will find themselves deprived of food.“, alerted the candidate. “We obviously risk food riots, perhaps worse than in 2008“, she warned, worrying about the migratory reflux “importantwhich could result from this. On Monday, the Secretary General of the United Nations also sounded the alarm over a “tsunami de famine». «Cereal prices have already exceeded those of the start of the Arab Spring and the food riots of 2007-2008“Said Antonio Guterres. “FAO’s World Food Price Index is at its highest level on record».

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While reassuring about the resilience of France in the face of soaring wheat prices, the Minister of Agriculture Julien Normandie also said to himself on Tuesday “incredibly worried about what will happen internationally». «It’s probably a risk of starvation that we have“, explained the minister, citing “countries like Egypt, Morocco, Lebanon which are totally dependent on these exports (in wheat from Ukraine and Russia, editor’s note)“. And the Minister to warn against the socio-political consequences in these countries where “bread is essential“. In Africa, the Maghreb and the Middle East, is there a risk of a return to food riots, which could cause profound socio-political upheavals, as was the case in 2008?

LET’S CHECK. And let’s remember first…

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