Stress tests on banks: all the Italians have been promoted, the stock markets are flying

At the aggregate level of all 48 European banks analyzed, the reduction in cet 1 would be 410 basis points at 10.3% in 2020. At the end of 2017, the corrected cet 1 with the introduction of the new IFRS 9 accounting rules was 14 , 4%. Taking into account the full implementation of the European rules on capital, the decline would be 395 basis points with a cet 1 to 10.1% compared to 14% at the end of 2017.

The wait for the result of the test was not full of the anxieties of the past, also because this time the Monte dei Paschi has not passed under the lens, exempted from the restructuring plan signed with Europe after the state recapitalization: they had been the last stress tests to screw the Mps crisis up to public intervention. However, it must be remembered that these tests will then be taken by the ECB, which will give its authentic interpretation, at a later stage, evaluating the "Srep" capital adequacy that will be communicated to the major institutions in January.

The EBA has analyzed the financial statements projecting the data of last December over the three-year period 2018-2020 according to two hypotheses: baseline and "adverse" scenario, which simulates the fall in GDP, increased sovereign risks with a drop in liquidity, a fall in property prices. For Italy, the aggregate fall of the three-year GDP is expected to be 2.7%, with a 2.2% deviation of the unemployment rate and the stock market crash of about one third for each year.

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