Yesterday’s speech by the US representative to the UN Security Council Nikki Haley became another step in the escalation of the situation in the Syria . At the same time, Americans in this process act as skirmishers. Possible scenario of destabilization of the situation in Syria – in the material Federal News Agency (FAN) .
“Managed Chaos” in American
It is the US that is the only force that can motivate the dissident anti-government groups to act for the common goal. Both Kurdish separatists and former militants “Islamic state” 1 (IG; 1 IGIL; 1 it is forbidden in the Russian Federation), and terror group terrorists Jebhat an Nusra 1 (it is forbidden in the Russian Federation) “Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham” , and jihadists “Free Syrian Army” – all of them are in the same harness, although they continue to quarrel with each other.
This is “controlled chaos” in American way – to use the potential of irreconcilable destructive forces with one another for the destruction of Syrian statehood. The stakes in this game are very high, as Syria occupies a key position at the most important crossroads between Europe and Asia. Presidents in the United States can change, but the vector of the US Syria remains unchanged.
Another example of the fact that the United States still expects to win the “Syrian party”, we now observe. Counter-Terrorist Operation government troops at East Guta is largely pro-active.
The general plan
It is known that in East Kalamun, which is separated from Guta only a few tens of kilometers, there are thousands of militants. For the past two years, they have observed a ceasefire, but, like the detachments in East Guta , from peace with the government Bashar Assad refused. Moreover, among them there remained groups of Jebhat an Nusra . This, incidentally, is typical for all “opposition” formations: their most battle-worthy core is made up of terrorists, although this is not particularly publicized in the Western media.
Another rarely discussed fact is the presence of former militants “Islamic state” in mountain regions in the eastern provinces Damascus and Homs . A two-hour drive along the highway through the desert lies a 55-kilometer zone in the At-Tanfa area, where thousands of militants, including the same former Igilovites, were trained under cover of US aircraft.
In the south, just as far from Damascus , under the control of illegal armed formations there remains a large part of the territories of the provinces Dar’a and El Quneitra . The groups are disunited, but for the attack on the capital, the part connected with Jebhat An-Nusroi and concentrated in the west Dar’a . The rest at this time will be constrained government forces on other tracks.
Similarly, groups in the north Syria . It is enough to designate the movement of extremists from the direction of Er-Rastan in the direction Homsa and from Idliba to Hame and Aleppo to Syrian troops were left in place and not transferred to the Damascus .
Taking into account the activation of the gangs of the former Igilovites on the left bank of the Euphrates, the US-controlled detachments “Democratic Forces of Syria” just opened the way for them, moving away from the Iraqi border – the American intention of general destabilization is obvious.
The signal is understood
The commanders of militants in Dar’a already threaten Damascus offensive. In East Kalamun, militants are already shelling government positions near Dumeir, behind which the shortest path to Damascus . The militants in Er-Rastan have already ceased to participate in the negotiation committee of the de-escalation zone. And in East Guta “Jayesh Al-Islam” and “Failak Ar-Rahman” gathered forces in urban development in the west of the enclave, covered themselves with civilians and are negotiating for evacuation in Idlib.
By the way, a group of militants from the southern suburbs Damascus , which was due to depart on March 12 along the specified route along with families from the area of El-Qadam, was suddenly bombarded by formerly subordinated IGIL militants from the districts of Yarmuk and Hajr Al-Aswada. And nowhere, respectively, that day did not leave.
Thus, the heterogeneous spectrum of terrorists, militants and separatists in Syria , urged by US statements of readiness to strike at government troops , forms a threat of simultaneous actions with a view to destroying power in the Damascus . 12 March Nikki Haley in the UN Security Council gave them another signal. The US is ready again, as in April last year, to strike, without looking back at the truth, on Syrian government troops .
The script remains
Commenting on the current situation The Federal News Agency (FAN) political scientist and independent journalist Alexander Asafov noted that, despite the fact that the official US agenda left the position on the mandatory withdrawal Bashar Assad and Syria understandable only by the US “democratic procedures”, this task still remains:
“In favor of this says all the hysteria around Eastern Huts and the operation carried out there CAA , as well as the adoption of the UN Security Council Resolution 2401. That is, the original scenario of the United States remains a worker. However, there are not so many performers, and Washington was concerned about the rescue of militants Eastern Huts from inexorable destruction. And it is obvious that this will happen sooner or later, regardless of whether there will be external pressure on the official Damascus or not, despite provocations with chemical weapons and so on. ”
According to the expert, the United States is not so well equipped now with militants who can portray themselves as “democratic forces” and link Syrian army on different tracks, detaining her with military actions and terrorist attacks:
“But, despite this, the militants are doing quite a lot of work on the Internet, spreading rumors that almost Abu Bakr Al Baghdadi went out to jihad and showed his combat readiness. But, it seems to me, this is just a good picture, there are not many of them left, otherwise it would be for the survival of the militants in East Guta so the United States would not have fought much. Despite the fully functioning At-Tanf, through which there passes a certain number, let’s say, of possible participants in the overthrow Bashar Assad , I think, not everything is so rosy after the campaign of 2017, the “wards” of the United States. ”
Everything can still change
Interlocutor FAN believes that the scenario of destabilization in the Syria , described above, of course, is likely:
“But, if the US could implement it, they would have already implemented it. They would not be threatened with a military blow, they would not talk about the need for some other reconciliation process, they would not dispute the actions of Russian aid and would not put a stick in the wheels of the humanitarian process connected with the same East Guta “.
According to the expert, the fact that the enclave in East Guta , as well as the enclave in Eastern Kalamun, Er-Rastan and other areas of Syria will sooner or later cease to exist, is an obvious fact:
“Therefore, the US is trying to save the maximum, if one can call it so, its” personnel “. And if they had a working scenario of effective action that could seriously affect the actions Syrian army supported by RF CCS , they would have already done it. ”
But the aggravation of the political and media agenda, from the point of view of our interlocutor, just means that the United States is not ready for this:
“Indeed, militants can try to pull apart the forces of the Syrian army, to engage them simultaneously in several positional battles in all directions and, thereby, delay the completion of the operation in East Guta , which will still end with the complete destruction or complete disarmament of the enclave, depending on what decisions the commanders of the militants and the militants themselves take. Provocations by militants – will, terrorist attacks – will be, shelling of humanitarian corridors and killing of civilians by jihadists in East Guta – there will be an exacerbation of the Kurdish problem, there will be an increase in political blackmail of all players in the region, including Erdogan. It will all happen, but it seems unlikely to me any definite, victorious coalition operation supported by militants or an operation of militants with the support of the coalition at the moment. But in two weeks everything can still change, of course. ”
1 The organization is prohibited on the territory of the Russian Federation.