Wanbao Investment Gu Wang Rongxu said that Taiwan stocks are performing the best market in history. Although there is a bad news about the new crown epidemic this year, Taiwan stocks have not fallen, but have risen by more than 4,000 points. Among them, more than 1,100 points have risen this month. It can be seen that the bull market is booming and the market has repeatedly set new highs. Some people in the market look at 15,000 points, and some call 20,000 points. Although it is too early to say, as long as the market can reach a high, it is Long position, no need to preset high point.
The economic recovery will be established next year. At the end of the year, there will be a wave of foreign capital replenishment. In November, foreign investors bought more than 150 billion Taiwanese stocks. Since the beginning of this year, foreign capital has sold more than 540 billion yuan. With foreign capital selling, the exchange rate of the New Taiwan dollar can rise to a 9-year high. Now foreign capital is strongly covering it, and the exchange rate of the New Taiwan dollar is not going to fall. The capital market remains unchanged, and the market has no room for a big drop. The rest is stock picking.
Technology stocks are the most sensitive to the economy. South Korea and Taiwan are both focused on technology stocks. Since November, Korean stocks have risen 12.4%, and if they rise about 2%, they will hit a record high. Although Taiwan stocks rose by only 9.2% this month, they have taken the lead in setting new record highs. The strongest Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 14.4% this month and hit a record high. Semiconductors are the most upstream of electronics. Who is the mainstream? You can see the stock price.
Wanbao Investment Gu Wang Rongxu said that if foreign investors continue to buy TSMC (2330-TW), Taiwan stocks are likely to rise but never fall. Domestic investment is likely to be big and small. In addition to equipment stocks, semiconductor related products include IC design, silicon wafers, and memory. Power semiconductors, as long as they have explosive performance next year, will have a chance to rise.
For example, the column analysis at the beginning of November was optimistic about IC Design Liji (4968-TW). This month it rose by 50%. It is one of the stocks that will rise the most in Taiwan in November. The stock price at the beginning of the month was only a few yuan, but it has now risen to 360 yuan. , In just a few days, the price difference exceeded 100 yuan. At that time, I was optimistic about Biden’s victory, and Huawei concept stocks had a chance to come back to life. In the past, Huawei accounted for 20% of Liji’s revenue, but after the Huawei ban took effect, the capacity vacancy was immediately filled by orders from other customers. The situation is exactly the same as that of TSMC. This is a demonstration of its superior technological competitiveness.
Wanbao Investment Gu Wang Rongxu said that recently there are some IC designs that are more than 100 yuan, such as Andes (6533-TW), Crystal Phase Light (3530-TW), etc., have also risen sharply, and the market for IC design price comparison has begun. Limited by space, next week, I will conduct an in-depth analysis on more IC design stocks with explosive performance next year.
Memory can be said to be the semiconductor group that has not risen the most this year. However, as Micron’s stock price has soared, Nanya (2408-TW) and Macronix (2337-TW) have seen the shadow of legal persons these days. Global DRAM capital expenditure has been reduced for two consecutive years. Next year, with the upgrade of 5G memory, it is estimated that DRAM prices will begin to rebound, which is beneficial to Nanya. NOR Flash will also benefit from 5G mobile phone upgrades equipped with OLED panel external NOR Flash, and the output will also be substantial growing up.
Moreover, the trend of the US-China technology war has not changed. Zhaoyi Innovation’s global NOR Flash market accounted for 15%. It is about 10% of the world’s total production that is produced by SMIC, while Zhaoyi Innovation comes from overseas operations. The revenue is as high as 80%. In other words, after SMIC is controlled, Zhaoyi Innovation’s foreign customers are very likely to transfer orders to Macronix or Winbond (2344-TW).
While Macronix’s technological leadership, the tight supply of NOR Flash next year, and the potential transfer opportunities, Macronix will benefit the most. It is estimated that next year’s EPS will be about 3 to 3.7 yuan, and next year’s P/E ratio will be about 10 times. Lower than the 18 times of Nanya Branch and 25 times of Winbond, the market outlook is worth tracking.
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