Mathematician Prof. Nikolay Vitanov analyzed the coronavirus pandemic in our country. Here is what he wrote on his personal Facebook profile about the situation on February 6:
As you know, I am no longer at the table and let the other players play the game. By this I want to show you that there is enough predictability and once a system is energized to an attractor, it will go there if there is not enough intelligent active element to change its trajectory.
You see – both the flu wave and the covid move according to the forecast and the waves diverge so that there is not a big burden on the health system. The attractor is stable.
We ride on the technology to estimate and predict, as we do every day.
Those are the numbers. If you find it monotonous, don’t read it.
We are in the Empty Hospitals scenario, day 203. After the prediction that the Empty Hospitals scenario will be stable for 200 days is fulfilled, I count just for fun and to show you that predictability exists. And the Empty Hospitals scenario will be stable in February as well.
The 14-day incidence today is 10.62 per 100,000. The expectation is that there will be no problem for the health system. We’re not surprised, are we? Strategy and tactics work, pushing the wave works. But how can it be done, but it can’t be done! Can’t it? Here, the cards are on the table. Watch the game play out.
I recall the Empty Hospitals scenario – steady at under 500 in ICUs and under 5000 in non-ICUs.
Checking the pandemic situation today
1. The General Situation – The Modified Omicron Fails to Ignite the Diffuse Spread And so it is now 310 days after the end of the emergency epidemic situation. We count after 300, just like that, just for fun. And to show you what a stable attractor is. The system will stay there – there will be no diffuse spread.
So, we drive on.
3. The basic reproductive number – today is 1.02. It’s over 1:00 a.m. The contagion is spreading, but as you were predicted, the Covid is not going to be defeated quickly. So the development is as expected.
3. The superfire check – no superfire. For there to be, there must be diffuse distribution. However, the diffuse spread of covid is gone. There’s no-ah-ah- it.
Let’s look at some control numbers for today from the Diffuse Spread Index
For the country – 0.02
Sofia-city – 0.02
Plovdiv – 0.02
Burgas – 0.02
Varna – 0.02
On the southern borders
Blagoevgrad – 0.01
Kardzhali – 0.03
Smolyan – 0.03
Haskovo – 0.02
Yambol – 0.03
We know each other:
1. Critical value for ignition of diffuse
spread – 1.00
2. Above 1.00 – diffuse distribution
3. Below 1.00 – diffuse distribution stops or is completely absent.
As expected – no problems. The Empty Hospitals scenario is expected to be stable in February as well. The index values are very low and low values are what is expected in a down wave mode. The strategy and tactics, as you can see, work.
For the country, the index is 50 times below the critical value. There is no diffuse spread, cluster spread is still at a low level. The development is according to the “Polegata Wave” plan. In Blagoevgrad, the index is even 100 times below the critical value.
Is there anything to worry about for now? No – indices are still low. When should we start to worry – when they reach 0.5. However, we know what to do – we push the possibility of high morbidity to the spring with the afterthought of cutting it there.
The plan to block the spread of K-19 by stopping diffuse spread is working. 310 days already. Here, I do not participate in the game, I do not influence the situation. However, the situation is developing as I predicted many, many months ago. Why? Because there is predictability in pandemics and epidemics. You’re watching, aren’t you, it’s right in front of your eyes. There’s a predictability to it.
FYI – the indexes in a few more areas
Pasaldzhik – 0.02
Pernik – 0.02
Pleven – 0.02
Razgrad – 0.03
Ruse – 0.02
I drive in alphabetical order, 5 areas each day.
As you can see, there are no problems so far. The situation is under complete control. We don’t let the diffuse spread ignite. In the interior of the country, the situation is calm. And February goes by-and-and-and. You see, the index needs to go up at least 30 times, if not more, to reach the critical value. The social system is stuck on an attractor without diffuse distribution and stays there. The situation is calm. In the middle of winter. Stability, predictability, tranquility – you know, this is the motto of mathematical social dynamics. Here’s it in action. In 1 year, since I have been acting together with the Ministry of Health, the incidence has dropped hundreds of times. It is February, in the middle of winter, there are not 15 cases a day, today there are 12. It is like the middle of summer. You ask when I started working in the Ministry of Health last year. Let me answer you – we started making the floats to fight the pandemic on January 10th, around the 14th everything was ready and put into action. After 10 days, the wave stopped growing and went down. It had reached 12,000 cases a day when we broke it. Today there are 12. Decrease – 1000 times. Let me spell it out in capital letters 1000 TIMES so you know what to expect from the next ones dealing with pandemics. 1000 times drop in the middle of winter if you want. That’s right – today is February 6 – we are in the middle of winter.
We drive on.
3. Check for hospital overcrowding. IT IS IMPORTANT. Are there overcrowded hospitals? There is no. Things are under control. Game objective achieved. The place of the people is at home with the brandy, the wine, the little finger and the pickle, not in the hospitals.
Here are some numbers
Current occupancy of intensive care beds: 34
Employed to destabilize “Empty Hospitals” : 500
Below 7% of the critical value – employment is low
Current occupancy of non-intensive beds: 234
Employed to destabilize “Empty Hospitals” : 5000
Below 5% of the critical value. It’s pretty low
You know the forecast. The Empty Hospitals scenario will also be stable in February. Why? The system is driven into the correct attractor. The vast social system does not move from prescriptions and attractor. In the middle of winter. No-ah-ah-ah, the system doesn’t move-ah-ah-ah.
4. Mortality Check. Reduced to single digits per day. Mortality will also be low in February. Be careful though and take care. There will be short sticks. Don’t pull the short stick.
5. Conclusion of the inspection – even today, 310 days after the end of the emergency epidemic situation, the situation is calm. The health system is coping with the problems, the “Empty Hospitals” scenario is stable.
Diffuse propagation is extinguished. Cluster prevalence is low. You know the forecast – even in January, the hospitals will not be full.
7. Today – the risk map. No changes. Everything is green except for two areas where more care should be taken and that’s it. It goes down. Cut the vines calmly, drink your wine. Covid is on a short leash.
Stability, predictability, peace of mind. Mathematical Social Dynamics in Action. This is the situation. There is no tossing here and there, no excessive measures – day after day we calmly pass through the pandemic. Be careful with the flu and go about your business. Covid is still on a short leash today.
As a tip – be careful – this week we are after the peak of the flu wave. As you can see, the prediction that flu and covid will go hand in hand is coming true. Covid is on a short leash. However, the flu is unpleasant. So take care over the next week or so as the flu wave starts to die down. I have always written to you that the peak of the wave is not a point, but an interval. And you should know that in addition to registered cases there are also unregistered cases. But it was not the peak in the first week of February, but in the last week of January – say those who look only at the registered cases. Watch the whole picture. Remember – a peak is not a point, but an interval. You were told – the peak will be in the first week of February, beware the week before and the week after. Right. The prediction is correct. Because if you dig into what others have predicted for you, you’ll see peak predictions deep into February and March. No, the peak came exactly as I expected and watch out this week for it to go away and the wave to go steadily down.
I wish you health and success. And may virus and war stay away from you.