Frankfurt The crash is near! We read that again and again. But in truth hardly any announced downfall actually occurs; Crises usually come when nobody expects them. A year ago, many analysts warned of the recession, rising US interest rates, the Sino-US trade conflict, an unpredictable White House president, Brexit. The concerns turned out to be exaggerated. Once again.
Contrary to all concerns, the 2019 stock market year went down in history as one of the best with global share gains of 30 percent. The entire decade was also excellent. It generated an average of around 9.5 percent of annual income, as the well-known asset manager Bert Flossbach calculated.
And the 20s that have just started? They should also go out well. Interest rates are practically firmly cemented at their low level. The economy and companies can no longer survive without cheap money. Financial repression, the redistribution from savers to borrowers, will therefore be the major topic in the coming calendar years. Investors make losses on interest investments if you include inflation. With negative bond yields and spreading interest rates, they end up in the lousy without including the devaluation of money.
In the new decade, "tina" will finally be honored. The Anglo-Saxon abbreviation for "there is no alternative" describes stocks as having no alternative. Accordingly, expert Flossbach estimates the global equity returns over the next ten years at 6.6 percent each. He considers that to be conservative. So it could be golden 20s. The future belongs to the optimists. Even if the happy outlook is repeatedly clouded by reports from all over the world.
However, the encouraging stock forecast is bad news for crash prophets, who pushed the bestseller lists again last year. But the sinking works are incorrectly sorted in non-fiction. They belong to the fiction category.
More: This analysis is a warning sign for the German economy – and for investors. Those who rely unilaterally on the Dax are giving away valuable returns.
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