The California districts that could control the house

The California districts that could control the house

With congressional races tightening across the country, this premise is being tested on Tuesday as the Golden State voters cast out the final ballots in seven Republican victories won by Hillary Clinton in 2016, which are the democrats' path to reconquest the House ,

Some are closer than others. However, they all will show whether the collective frustration of university-educated voters – especially women – and the anger of young and minority voters will serve as control over Trump and the seizure of power by the Republicans in Washington.

A key question is whether Trump's attempts to expand its base through repression of immigrants and refugees in recent weeks will hurt vulnerable homeowners alienating college-educated whites and Latino voters, 21% of the California electorate make out, invigorate. In Golden State, Trump's strategy could have had mixed results.

It could be helpful for the GOP, for example in California-25, the suburban county in north Los Angeles County, where 31-year-old Katie Hill tries to drop veteran veteran and former police officer Steve Knight. But further south, presidential rhetoric could hurt GOP-incumbent companies like Dana Rohrabacher and Mimi Walters, both of which are more affluent, college-educated areas of Orange County.

"Trump's final, very divided, very shrill message on immigration and race is generally meant to help Republicans with white workers, but it clearly reinforces their white workers' issues," said Ron Brownstein, senior political analyst at CNN.

"The way in California is that it could help Knight in a district where only about a third of white voters have a college degree, but for Dana Rohrabacher and Mimi Walters this is a much bigger challenge, because in their districts about half of the population is White people have a university degree. "

Trump had a clear impact in the state's June state election. According to an analysis by the UCLA Latino Policy & Politics initiative, turnout in Latin American districts CA-39 and CA-48 increased significantly in two of the closest races in Orange County.

During the last sprint last weekend, Gavin Newsom, who will fight for the president's chief and the next governor of the state, mocked the president's strategy to arouse the fear of the migrants' caravan and challenged the progressive voters like him State was bursting.

In addition to US Senator Kamala Harris, who could challenge Trump for the White House in 2020, Newsom calls in the Trump resistance to their signature that America is "better than that".

"Send a message to Donald Trump and those who support Trumpism that we reject him," Newsom said at a rally for Democrat Katie Porter, which seeks to depose Walters in the former Republican bastion of Orange County. "That we are Californians, that in the spirit of Kamala Harris we are better than that, it is our state, it is our country, it is our moment."

David Axelrod, former senior adviser to President Barack Obama and a CNN political commentator, noted that Newsom and US Senator Dianne Feinstein at the top of the ticket could boost their democratic hopes.

"There is an upswing that will help the Democratic candidate," said Axelrod. "They add aversion to Trump in California and it's a very unforgiving environment for Republican candidates."

Here are some of the most important races to see on Tuesday night:

California-10: Rep. Jeff Denham (R) vs. Josh Harder (D)

Denham has survived tough races in this Central Valley neighborhood, but now faces the headwinds of Trump immigration policy and unpopular tariffs that farmers have caught in the midst of a trade war with China. This year he is also in Harder, a former venture capitalist of Silicon Valley, a remarkably well-financed opponent. Harder raised an impressive $ 3.5 million in the third quarter as part of what the Congressional Leadership Fund (the Paul-backed super-PAC) has called this year's Green Wave for Democrats.

California-25: Rep. Steve Knight (R) vs. Katie Hill (D)

Katie Hill

This complex neighborhood north of Los Angeles – with its mix of suburban and rural areas and a rapidly changing population of almost 40% Latino – is one of the wildcards of the night. Knight, an army veteran who worked as a police officer in the district for 18 years, is from a well-known political family. But his challenger, 31-year-old Hill, is one of the Democratic Party's new stars in this cycle: the dull daughter of a police officer who said she had guns all her life and one of her campaign ads filmed a 100 feet free-climbing high rock face. With support from EMILY & # 39; s List and the LGBTQ Victory Fund, Hill was one of the most outstanding fundraisers in the cycle. It remains to be seen if their group can make enough Latinos to bring them to the finish line.

California-39: The Young Kim (R) Vs. Gil Cisneros (D)

The young Kim

This district will demonstrate the ability of the Republican Party to assert itself in various races, Orange and Los Angeles. With her close ties to the district, Kim is a charismatic potential successor to her former boss, retired MP Ed Royce. Born in South Korea, she has highlighted her immigration journey in a district that is now more than a third Latino and 29% Asian. But the increased turnout in Latinos could help Cisneros, a former naval officer. According to the UCLA analysis, the number of ballots issued in CA-39 in some majority Latino districts increased 245% from 2014 levels.

California-45: Rep. Mimi Walters (R) vs. Katie Porter (D)

It seemed unlikely at first that Professor Porter of UC Irvine, whom the Republicans could call the ultra-liberal protégé of Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, could send the beloved Walters to Orange County. In a district with a high number of college-educated voters, Porter has drilled out Walters to support Trump's agenda, and has taken over California's cuts to the republican tax legislation that Walters supported. As a single mother of three, Porter has focused on healthcare and her commitment to serving the middle class.

California-48: Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R) vs. Harley Rouda (D)

Republican US Representative Dana Rohrabacher

Experienced congressman Rohrabacher had barely staged a campaign in his coastal district of Orange County for many months. He counted on his long association with voters and his quirky reputation as "Surfin 'Dana" to carry the day. In the third quarter, it raised $ 421,000 to Rouda's $ 3.2 million. Rouda, a progressive former real estate agent and businessman, has sought to capitalize on Trump's contempt for the district's many constituents. But this race remains a win until the end, with Trump praising Monday's achievements by Rohrabacher for his neighborhood, and the congressman calls supporters to #VoteRedToSaveAmerica.

California-49: Diane Harkey (R) vs. Mike Levin (D)

The race for the retired Rep. GOP Darrell Issa's seat was once considered one of the most competitive in California, but this coastal district in the former Nixon country of Orange and North San Diego now appears to be blue. Former Equalization candidate Harkey, who was endorsed by Issa, was weighed down by the family's financial scandal and aversion to Trump among the district's many wealthy college-educated voters. Environmental advocate Levin has launched an energetic shoe leather campaign with the aim of activating younger voters. He cast Harkey as a "stamp" for Trump and achieved a double-digit lead in the New York Times / Siena College poll last month.

California-50: Rep. Duncan Hunter (R) against Ammar Campa-Najjar (D)

Representative Duncan Hunter
This race in northeastern San Diego County would never have been in doubt for the Republicans, as Trump won the district 15 points. But it was one thing to watch when Hunter was charged with campaigning for a campaign of corruption amounting to a quarter of a million dollars on his election campaign card. The 47-page indictment was an astounding read, and though Hunter claimed to be framed by a "corrupt" Justice Department, he lost the sympathy of many voters when he seemed to blame his wife for the charges. He said his Mexican-Palestinian-American adversary – a 29-year-old former government official of the Obama administration who is a Christian – is a Muslim who is linked to terrorism and endangers the security of US soldiers. Given Hunter's xenophobic attacks and his legal danger, this could be the ultimate test for Trump loyalists in one of California's most conservative neighborhoods.

,

Leave a comment

Send a Comment

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.