The autonomous car will not be finally for tomorrow. According to one study, production costs are still too high.
It will still take several years to see driving cars without drivers since the brakes in terms of costs and technological innovation are still present, says a study by AlixPartners, revealed by Les Echos. Indeed, the 56 billion euros of investment by the automotive industry this year in the autonomous car seem insufficient.
According to the study by AlixPartners, a level 4 autonomy (on a scale that counts 5) is still far from being developed. Level 4 allows the driver to divert his attention from the road since the car is able to get on its own.
Not before 2023
"According to the data available in California, the tests conducted on autonomous cars required intervention every 15,000 miles (26,000 kilometers)," said Echoes Lawrence Petizon, partner of the firm in France. "It's very far from the rate observed with human conduct, an accident every 500,000 miles," he adds. AlixPartners estimates that the levels will not be comparable until 2023.
Similarly, while the level 2 automation functions (cruise control associated with keeping in a lane) cost around 800 euros, the estimated additional cost of a level 4 is now 21,000 euros, since requires a high level of artificial intelligence and sophisticated equipment (radars using laser beams).
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Another downside: "The consumer is not ready to pay more than 2,000 euros," says Laurent Petizon. Even if the learning curve will drop this extra cost around 3,400 euros in 2025, according to the firm's estimates, it will still not be within reach of all budgets.