Central sources told this newspaper that today’s meeting will take several hours. Given the rumors of an eventual adjustment of the rate of passes to one day from 30 to 33% and those of 7 days from 33 to 36%, official sources assured that “there is no firm decision yet.” However, another person with knowledge of the discussions did not rule out its occurrence, because it follows the path of “harmonization” described.
What do analysts and consultants think about a new rate hike to calm the exchange rate front? Most are skeptical of the effectiveness. “I hope they go up and not harmonize,” came to slip an important analyst from the City.
Julia Segoviano, an economist at LCG, considered that “certain contradictions” between the measures promoted by the BCRA and the Economy do not help. “As long as that situation lasts, and if we add that the mood is very different from what it was before the September 15 measures, I don’t think the rate can pull anything. As an instrument I see it quite weak, ”said Segoviano. The same analysis shares Federico Furiase, director of Eco Go: “We are in a feedback mechanism of devaluation / inflation expectations in the face of fiscal / monetary imbalances and the course of economic policy, with which today there is no rate increase that scope”.
“The only way out,” explains Furiase, “is for the Government to achieve a” controlled “devaluation, within the framework of a stabilization program with the IMF that includes faster fiscal consolidation and a greater buffer of reserves in the BCRA at the start. to anchor expectations after the exchange shock and take advantage of the nominal shock to liquefy part of public spending ”. “Only in this context of accommodation of the exchange rate and greater cushion in the reserves of the BCRA, the increase in the rate could help to stabilize the run,” he explained.