The economic debacle of the coronavirus in graphics | Economy

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The impact that the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic will have on the world economy is expected to be unprecedented in the last century. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has just projected that the global economy will contract 3% in 2020, —8% in Spain— in an analysis surrounded by “extreme uncertainty” whose outcome will depend on how each country overcomes the epidemic. In just four months, global mobility has been paralyzed to record lows, record unemployment figures have been reached and sectors such as tourism, hospitality and aviation have collapsed. These are some indicators that illustrate how the coronavirus crisis has hit the economy:

Paralysis of global mobility

March, 15th
153,521 flights

-crisis/economia/XXXX.png?value=2″>

April 15
74,953 flights

Source: Flightradar24
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The paralysis of air traffic, especially commercial flights, is a direct consequence of the coronavirus pandemic, which has confined more than a third of the world population. In the first four months of the year, world traffic has fallen by 60%, according to Eurocontrol. This decrease has been especially pronounced in the European Union, where the number of flights has been reduced by 88% on average, according to the same data. In Spain, the reduction is almost 95%. The pandemic has also affected maritime traffic, which began to notice the first declines in late January, especially since China accounts for a third of global container traffic. In fact, in the first two months of the year, the Asian giant’s international trade fell 9.6% year-on-year, according to data published by the country’s General Administration of Customs.



Global air traffic falls into

the first four months of 2020

WHO declares

the pandemic

On January 9 they registered 185,552 flights *; on April 15, 74,954

Flights are reduced in Spain

Fall in April from the previous year

WHO declares

the pandemic

On March 12 flights decreased in Spain a 10.5%; on the 17th, a 43.7%, and since March 28 the fall exceeds the 90%

Airports empty

in Madrid and Barcelona

WHO declares

the pandemic

Flight drop compared to 2019.

March 1: Madrid-Barajas, 4.4%; Barcelona-El Prat, 0.8; April 15: Barajas, 93%; El Prat, 96%

Global air traffic falls into

the first four months of 2020

WHO declares

the pandemic

On January 9 they registered 185,552 flights *; on April 15, 74,954

* Commercial passenger, cargo, private, helicopter, drone, military, government and health flights.

Flights are reduced in Spain

Fall in April from the previous year

WHO declares

the pandemic

On March 12 flights decreased in Spain a 10.5%; on the 17th, a 43.7%, and since March 28 the fall exceeds the 90%

Airports empty

in Madrid and Barcelona

WHO declares

the pandemic

Flight drop compared to 2019.

March 1: Madrid-Barajas, 4.4%; Barcelona-El Prat, 0.8; April 15: Barajas, 93%; El Prat, 96%

Global air traffic falls into

the first four months of 2020

Flights are reduced in Spain

Fall in April from the previous year

WHO declares

the pandemic

WHO declares

the pandemic

On January 9 they registered 185,552 flights *; on April 15, 74,954

On March 12 flights decreased in Spain a 10.5%; on the 17th, a 43.7%, and since March 28 the fall exceeds the 90%

* Commercial passenger, cargo, private, helicopter, drone, military, government and health flights.

Airports empty

in Madrid and Barcelona

WHO declares

the pandemic

Flight drop compared to 2019.

March 1: Madrid-Barajas, 4.4%; Barcelona-El Prat, 0.8; April 15: Barajas, 93%; El Prat, 96%

Global air traffic falls into

the first four months of 2020

Flights are reduced in Spain

Airports empty

in Madrid and Barcelona

Fall in April from the previous year

WHO declares

the pandemic

WHO declares

the pandemic

WHO declares

the pandemic

On January 9 they registered 185,552 flights *; on April 15, 74,954

On March 12 flights decreased in Spain a 10.5%; on the 17th, a 43.7%, and since March 28 the fall exceeds the 90%

Flight drop compared to 2019.

March 1: Madrid-Barajas, 4.4%; Barcelona-El Prat, 0.8; April 15: Barajas, 93%; El Prat, 96%

* Commercial passenger, cargo, private, helicopter, drone, military, government and health flights.

The confinement of citizens in their homes has also had an impact on road traffic, which has experienced a notable decrease, visible daily on the streets of any city. Last Friday, private car traffic in Madrid and Barcelona was around 65% lower compared to a February business day. These are the last images available today, April 17th.

Press to see the most recent images

Madrid

Plaza de Cibeles

Plaza de Cibeles

Puerta de Alcalá

Puerta de Alcalá

Columbus Square

Columbus Square

Barcelona

Ramblas and Columbus monument

Ramblas and Columbus monument

Plaça Urquinaona

Plaça Urquinaona

Plaça Antonio López

Plaça Antonio López

Empty streets have in turn influenced air quality. According to data compiled by Ecologists in Action, the average of gas emissions from traffic during the month of March was 55% lower than the average for the last period.

Blow to the job

Coronavirus has had a devastating effect on the labor market. Since the closure of the schools was announced on March 9, until the end of the month, Social Security lost more than 800,000 members, leaving a total of 19 million the number of contributors. It is the same number of people who stopped trading between October 2, 2008 and February 27, 2009, the period considered as the zero zone of the Great Recession caused by the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy. The number of unemployed rose in the same period by 302,265, according to data from the Ministries of Labor and Social Security. In addition, 3.5 million workers have been affected by an ERTE, double that between 2009 and 2019.



The effects of the coronavirus

shoots the total of unemployed

In February, 3,246,047 unemployed; in March, 3,548,312

Source: Ministry of Labor.

The increase in March more than 300,000 unemployed is the largest since 2010

Source: Ministry of Labor.

Workers descend

in Social Security

The average number of members in February was 19,250,229; in March, 19,006,760

Source: Ministry of Labor.

Membership drop in March

Regarding February (last day of the month)

The lost of 833,979 jobs is the worst figure in the statistical series.

Source: Ministry of Labor.

The effects of the coronavirus

shoots the total of unemployed

In February, 3,246,047 unemployed; in March, 3,548,312

Source: Ministry of Labor.

The increase in March more than 300,000 unemployed is the largest since 2010

Source: Ministry of Labor.

Workers descend

in Social Security

The average number of members in February was 19,250,229; in March, 19,006,760

Source: Ministry of Labor.

Membership drop in March

Regarding February (last day of the month)

The lost of 833,979 jobs is the worst figure in the statistical series.

Source: Ministry of Labor.

The effects of the coronavirus

shoots the total of unemployed

In February, 3,246,047 unemployed; in March, 3,548,312

The increase in March more than 300,000 unemployed is the largest since 2010

Source: Ministry of Labor.

Source: Ministry of Labor.

Workers descend

in Social Security

Membership drop in March

Regarding February (last day of the month)

The average number of members in February was 19,250,229; in March, 19,006,760

The lost of 833,979 jobs is the worst figure in the statistical series.

Source: Ministry of Labor.

Source: Ministry of Labor.

The effects of the coronavirus

shoots the total of unemployed

Workers descend

in Social Security

Membership drop in March

Regarding February (last day of the month)

In February, 3,246,047 unemployed; in March, 3,548,312

The increase in March more than 300,000 unemployed is the largest since 2010

The average number of members in February was 19,250,229; in March, 19,006,760

The lost of 833,979 jobs is the worst figure in the statistical series.

Source: Ministry of Labor.

Source: Ministry of Labor.

Source: Ministry of Labor.

Source: Ministry of Labor.

And if the effects during the first weeks of confinement have been devastating, the forecasts are not hopeful. The IMF predicts that Spain concludes 2020 with 20.8% unemployed.

The sectors

Although it is premature to estimate the economic losses from the coronavirus pandemic, the comparison with the 2003 SARS epidemic predicts devastating consequences. Then, the virus, which sickened more than 8,000 people and killed 774, caused worldwide losses of between 35,000 and 50,000 million euros, according to different analyzes. SARS-CoV-2 has already affected more than two million people in four months and has killed more than 150,000. Tourism, hospitality, commerce or the automotive sector are among the most affected sectors – although there are many more. This is the decline they have suffered during the crisis:



The fall of tourism

planned for 2020

In the case of a scenario without activity in establishments dedicated to tourism between April and June.

Biggest decrease in tourism activity in 2020: Balearic Islands -41%

Billing of the sector

of the hospitality industry

Expected fall after the closure of establishments.

Billing planned for

2020 before the health crisis

124,000

millions of euros

After the closing of

establishments

-40,000

millions of euros

After the closing of

establishments

-30% / – 40%

Bars, restaurants and accommodation: 314,000; workers: 1,700,000

Source: Hospitality of Spain / B & C and EY.

The sale of cars falls

at a level never recorded

Vehicle registration in March

Car registration. March 2019: 122,659; March 2020: 37,644

Lower electricity consumption

that in March 2019

March 23 (second

week of confinement)

April 6 (second week of

paralysis of non-essential activities)

Source: Red Eléctrica Española (REE).

The fall of tourism

planned for 2020

In the case of a scenario without activity in establishments dedicated to tourism between April and June.

Biggest decrease in tourism activity in 2020: Balearic Islands -41%

Billing of the sector

of the hospitality industry

Expected fall after the closure of establishments.

Billing planned for

2020 before the health crisis

124,000

millions of euros

After the closing of

establishments

-40,000

millions of euros

After the closing of

establishments

-30% / – 40%

Bars, restaurants and accommodation: 314,000; workers: 1,700,000

Source: Hospitality of Spain / B & C and EY.

The sale of cars falls

at a level never recorded

Vehicle registration in March

Car registration. March 2019: 122,659; March 2020: 37,644

Lower electricity consumption

that in March 2019

March 23 (second

week of confinement)

April 6 (second week of

paralysis of non-essential activities)

Source: Red Eléctrica Española (REE).

The fall of tourism

planned for 2020

Billing of the sector

of the hospitality industry

In the case of a scenario without activity in establishments dedicated to tourism between April and June.

Expected fall after the closure of establishments.

Billing planned for

2020 before the health crisis

124,000

millions of euros

After the closing of

establishments

-40,000

millions of euros

After the closing of

establishments

-30% / – 40%

Biggest decrease in tourism activity in 2020: Balearic Islands -41%

Bars, restaurants and accommodation: 314,000; workers: 1,700,000

Source: Hospitality of Spain / B & C and EY.

The sale of cars falls

at a level never recorded

Lower electricity consumption

that in March 2019

Vehicle registration in March

March 23 (second

week of confinement)

April 6 (second week of

paralysis of non-essential activities)

Car registration. March 2019: 122,659; March 2020: 37,644

Source: Red Eléctrica Española (REE).

The fall of tourism

planned for 2020

Billing of the sector

of the hospitality industry

The sale of cars falls

at a level never recorded

Lower electricity consumption

that in March 2019

In the case of a scenario without activity in establishments dedicated to tourism between April and June.

Expected fall after the closure of establishments.

Vehicle registration in March

Billing planned for

2020 before the health crisis

124,000

millions of euros

After the closing of

establishments

-40,000

millions of euros

After the closing of

establishments

-30% / – 40%

March 23 (second

week of confinement)

April 6 (second week of

paralysis of non-essential activities)

Biggest decrease in tourism activity in 2020: Balearic Islands -41%

Bars, restaurants and accommodation: 314,000; workers: 1,700,000

Car registration. March 2019: 122,659; March 2020: 37,644

Source: Hospitality of Spain / B & C and EY.

Source: Red Eléctrica Española (REE).

Work has already announced that it is studying increasing ERTE force majeure in the sectors most affected by the crisis. In addition, the resumption of activity in Spain, once the covid-19 epidemic allows it, will be carried out in two stages: the first will affect the productive sectors and will take place until the summer, and the second will include the sectors most affected by the crisis and will last until the end of the year, which means that, according to government forecasts, sectors such as tourism or hospitality will take months to recover.

The reaction of the markets

Stock market losses from the coronavirus total hundreds of billions. Although stimulus from governments and central banks has slightly slowed the decline, investors’ fear of the collapse of companies has hit the main parquets hard:



The Ibex 35

falls to zone

minimum

Brusque

fall of the

Dow Jones

2/19/2020: 10,083 Max.

03-16-2020: 6,107 Min.

12-2-2020: 29,551 Max.

03-23-2020: 18,591 Min.

Evolution of

the cousin of

risk

The oil,

in minima

20 years

Dollars per barrel Brent

6-1-2020: 68.91 Max.

3-31-2020: 22.74 Min.

3-18-2020: 146.3 Max.

03-26-2020: 84.0 Min.

Gold scales

as active

refuge

04-14-2020: 1,768 Max.

03-16-2020: 1,461 Min.

The Ibex 35

falls to zone

minimum

Brusque

fall of the

Dow Jones

2/19/2020: 10,083 Max.

03-16-2020: 6,107 Min.

12-2-2020: 29,551 Max.

03-23-2020: 18,591 Min.

Evolution of

the cousin of

risk

The oil,

in minima

20 years

Dollars per barrel Brent

6-1-2020: 68.91 Max.

3-31-2020: 22.74 Min.

3-18-2020: 146.3 Max.

03-26-2020: 84.0 Min.

Gold scales

as active

refuge

04-14-2020: 1,768 Max.

03-16-2020: 1,461 Min.

The Ibex 35

falls to zone

minimum

Brusque

fall of the

Dow Jones

Evolution of

the cousin of

risk

2/19/2020: 10,083 Max.

03-16-2020: 6,107 Min.

12-2-2020: 29,551 Max.

03-23-2020: 18,591 Min.

3-18-2020: 146.3 Max.

03-26-2020: 84.0 Min.

The oil,

in minima

20 years

Gold scales

as active

refuge

Dollars per barrel Brent

6-1-2020: 68.91 Max.

3-31-2020: 22.74 Min.

04-14-2020: 1,768 Max.

03-16-2020: 1,461 Min.

The Ibex 35

falls to zone

minimum

Brusque

fall of the

Dow Jones

Evolution of

the cousin of

risk

The oil,

in minima

20 years

Gold scales

as active

refuge

Dollars per barrel Brent

2/19/2020: 10,083 Max.

03-16-2020: 6,107 Min.

12-2-2020: 29,551 Max.

03-23-2020: 18,591 Min.

3-18-2020: 146.3 Max.

03-26-2020: 84.0 Min.

6-1-2020: 68.91 Max.

3-31-2020: 22.74 Min.

04-14-2020: 1,768 Max.

03-16-2020: 1,461 Min.

However, with positive prospects, the Stock Exchange rebounds to the upside. This is what happened after the presentation by the President of the United States, Donald Trump, of a plan to resume the country’s activity in mid-June.

Forecasts: it can still get worse

The most optimistic scenario of the IMF foresees a fall in GDP in Spain of 8%, the worst in its recent history, as long as there are no delays in containing the pandemic or a flare-up that confines part of the planet again. But it is not the only negative indicator. The collapse of fuels – exacerbated by the recently resolved conflict between Russia and Saudi Arabia – and light has brought the CPI to 0%, a figure that has not decreased since August 2016 – the forecast is that it will close the year in -0.3% -. These are some of the apocalyptic economic indicators left by the coronavirus crisis.



Inflation

will close the year

at negative rate

The economy

Spanish is

will collapse

this year

Breaks the

trend of

six years of

I stop on the downside

* IMF forecast

(2020 and 2021)

Source: Ministry

of the Treasury.

* IMF forecast

(2020 and 2021)

Source: Bank

from Spain.

Inflation

will close the year

at negative rate

The economy

Spanish is

will collapse

this year

Breaks the

trend of

six years of

I stop on the downside

* IMF forecast

(2020 and 2021)

Source: Ministry

of the Treasury.

* IMF forecast

(2020 and 2021)

Source: Bank

from Spain.

The economy

Spanish is

will collapse

this year

Inflation

will close the year

at negative rate

Breaks the

trend of

six years of

I stop on the downside

* IMF forecast

(2020 and 2021)

* IMF forecast

(2020 and 2021)

Source: Ministry

of the Treasury.

Source: Bank

from Spain.

The economy

Spanish is

will collapse

this year

Inflation

will close the year

at negative rate

Breaks the

trend of

six years of

I stop on the downside

* IMF forecast

(2020 and 2021)

* IMF forecast

(2020 and 2021)

Source: Ministry

of the Treasury.

Source: Bank

from Spain.

.

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