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The energy crisis is quieting down, so the forint is getting stronger?

Stock markets in Europe started the day in positive territory, but then turned downwards. The German index is down by 0.9, the French by 1.1, and the British by 0.3 percent. American futures indexes are also down by around half a percent. Oil is stagnating, the price of natural gas in the Netherlands is rising slightly, but it is still much lower than what has been typical in recent weeks. Markets are mainly looking forward to Thursday’s key Fed meeting.

At home, the BUX index can rise by 0.4 percent, this time Mol and Richter are holding it with increases of 0.4 and 0.7 percent, respectively. The OTP is also only a few forints lower, in a negligible percentage. On the other hand, Masterplast falls by almost four percent and Alteo by 1.5 percent.

The forint is stable, the euro is below 400

Today, the forint started the day well, it was around 398 forints to the euro, but then it got a little more expensive, in parallel with the deterioration of the European stock market climate. The euro is currently 399.0, 70 fils higher than yesterday. The dollar costs only a few pennies less, 398.90.

Despite the many, sometimes contradictory news and statements, it seems that the market participants view the ongoing negotiations with the European Union rather optimistically. That’s why our currency strengthened a lot yesterday. The Fed’s decision on Wednesday may also affect the Hungarian currency via the euro/dollar. (The strengthening dollar is not good for emerging market currencies.) And the Hungarian central bank will hold an interest rate meeting next week.

The euro/forint and the dollar/forint exchange rate.  (The red line is the day before the Russian attack, February 23.) Additional exchange rates and graphs: Privátbankár Exchange rate finder.The euro/forint and the dollar/forint exchange rate. (The red line is the day before the Russian attack, February 23.) Additional exchange rates and graphs: Privátbankár Exchange rate finder.

How many rate hikes will there be this week?

In Germany, the producer price index (PPI) in August was 7.9 percent monthly and 45.8 percent annually, higher than expectations of 1.6 and 37.1 percent, respectively. Today, the Swedish Rijksbank raised the key interest rate by one percentage point to 1.75 percent, analysts expected only 0.75 percent.

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On Wednesday, the American Fed will hold an interest rate meeting, and on Thursday, the British, Switzerland, Japan and Norway will hold a similar event.

Two-penny coin with holes. Two-penny coin with holes.

Government bond yields are in the sky

Last week, the domestic one-year reference yield on the government bond market reached 12 percent and approached it. The two indicators are currently 11.93 and 11.79 percent, respectively, after a slight drop yesterday.

Also in the USAbond yields rise further. A It has already reached 3.5 percent ten annual yield, the last such example was in 2011 KBC Equitas writes.

Shorter-sided yields rise at a faster rate, so the level of the two-year bond yield is dangerously close to four percent. Analysts are already forecasting a base interest rate of around 4.5 percent by the end of the first quarter of next year. The German ten-year yield is also on the rise, hovering around 1.8 percent.

Is the energy crisis quieting down, is the forint strengthening?

Erste Befektetési Zrt. is optimistic about the European Union’s separation from Russian gas, several developments point in the direction of ending dependence.

  • The Dutch put the port of Eemshaven into normal operation the other dayShein their newest LNG terminal, which annually eightcan deliver billion cubic meters of natural gas to the continent. This is it Russian gas exports eight percentage.
  • Germany fills its storage tanks without Russian gas, it is at 90 percent.
  • Massothere are also important steps for example the LNG terminals in Gdańsk and Hamburg, a doubling the Spanish-French interconnector capacity, etc.

According to the brokerage firm, Europe is doing its homework and cutting off Russian gas at record speed. This further depresses the price on the Dutch gas exchange, which also helps us a lot. And this is again good news for the HUF.

Musk would also deliver to Iran

Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk wants to seek exemption from sanctions against Iran. Starlink wants to offer satellite broadband internet service in the country, the manager announced on Twitter.

Large-scale protests are currently taking place in Iran over the death of a woman in police custody. Some Twitter users called on Musk to provide satellite internet in the country, allowing access to social media, which is severely restricted there.

According to earlier news, Starlink is also of great use to the Ukrainians in the war.

The Klitschko brothers are happy about the Starlink units that have arrived in Kiev.  Photo: Kyiv Municipality/WikimediaThe Klitschko brothers are happy about the Starlink units that have arrived in Kiev. Photo: Kyiv Municipality/Wikimedia

Is insurance stock a good deal?

The shares of European insurance companies performed well this year, while the STOXX-600 lost more than 13 percent of its value, the sector barely fell, reports the German N-Tv.de. Rising bond yields are particularly beneficial to life insurers, as they enable higher investment incomes to be achieved. The price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) is relatively favorable, below 9.5, and the dividend yield is above average, at almost six percent, quotes Ulrich Stephan, Deutsche Bank’s investment strategist.

It is a risk that insurers have increased their investments in BBB-rated bonds and illiquid assets such as real estate and private equity firms to more than €1 billion in recent years. Both asset classes can come under pressure in a recession.

Ukrainians can shop with Bitcoin

Cryptocurrencies are up today after the falls of the previous two days, with bitcoin and ether up five percent each to $19,360 and $1,360, respectively.

Crypto rates and charts

Crypto exchange Binance has announced a partnership with Ukrainian grocery chain VARUS, where customers can now order food online and pay their bills through the Binance Pay wallet. This enables seamless cryptocurrency payments with fast delivery to almost the entire territory of Ukraine. Varus has more than 100 supermarket units in Ukraine and has become the first retail chain in Europe to accept Binance Pay, Blockchain News reports.

$19 million was awarded by mistake

Binance accidentally distributed $19 million worth of crypto to its customers due to an accounting error. Two tokens, HNT (helium) and MOBILE, were mixed up. So when a user sent MOBILE tokens to their Binance account, they were credited with HNT tokens, which are worth much more. (Helium is a popular crypto-project that pays people in crypto-coins for running mobile internet hotspots.) Most users quickly sold the windfall, causing the HNT price to drop 20 percent.

Most cryptocurrency bugs cause losses to users, but the opposite also happens. This month, Crypto.com once accidentally handed over eight million dollars to a user. And Coinbase users made hundreds of times their profits by exploiting a programming error, Milk Road reminded him.

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