The Senate Republicans believe they are on the verge of increasing their majority in the midterm elections, although the historic headwind is likely to cost the GOP control of the house.
The Republicans believe that they are getting more and more seats in North Dakota, Missouri and Indiana, while the races in Montana and Florida remain tense.
The GOP feels more optimistic if it does not lose any of its own incumbents for reelection, a major turnaround from earlier in the cycle than Nevada Sen. Dean HellerDean Arthur HellerTrump Jr. points to "tired old" Pelosi in campaign ads: A per-hour viewer Trump's immigration spurt raises Senate GOP MORE was considered possibly the most vulnerable Senate.
In a rapidly changing environment, surprises are still possible on Tuesday.
Here's a look at the Senate seats that are more likely to turn around:
Sen. Heidi HeitkampMary (Heidi) Kathryn Heitkamp Trump Jr. refers to "tired old" Pelosi in the campaign and Dems fighting for political life to bring support to border security. Election Day: Hourly Spectator Guide MORE (D-N.D.) Is considered the most vulnerable democratic authority in the last weeks of the halftime, as they are behind Rep. Kevin CramerKevin John Cramer Trump Jr. refers to "tired old" Pelosi in the campaign and Dems fighting for political life to demand support for border security. Election Day: A Hourly Spectator Guide MORE (R-N.D.) In the polls.
Democrats do not count Heitkamp after squealing a victory in 2012. They argue that Heitkamp still has a way to meet their goals in the eastern part of the state, win moderate states, and vote for American voters.
The election takes place less than a week after the tribes unsuccessfully challenged a voter identification law that requires a valid address for the identification to be valid. The Native Americans strongly supported Heitkamp in 2012.
Although recent polls have shown a slight tightening of the race, Heitkamp is on average more than 11 percentage points behind the polls, according to Real Clear Politics.
The race is obstructed by election observers as a bias towards Republicans. And President TrumpDonald John TrumpSoro's representative: Fox News refuses to swear to Rihanna that their songs will never again play in Trump's "tragic rallies" to make the cyber agenda MOREIn a sign that Republicans are comfortable with the state, the campaign is not expected to be ended in the final days before the elections.
McCaskill has been a top target since the beginning of the cycle, as Republicans were convinced they had beaten them in 2012 when their GOP opponent, the then-Rep. Todd Akin (Mo.) had not sparked a political firestorm by claiming to be female Bodies had a chance to protect the pregnancy from "legitimate rape".
She managed to keep her race close, although Trump won around 15 percentage points in 2016.
Several polls in the last month of the half, including a Fox News poll released last week, have shown the race between McCaskill and Attorney General Josh Hawley. Others have Hawley with a slight margin, but well within the error limit.
McCaskill has tried to reconcile with Trump and distance himself from the more progressive elements of her party. Fox News said she does not belong to these "crazy democrats" and that "100 percent" Trump advocates that a migrant caravan does not invade the country.
But her strategy earned her no apology from Trump, who said during a rally in Missouri days before half-time that voters would "withdraw the left-wing Democrat." Claire McCaskillClaire Conner McCaskillMidterm vote to set the cyber agenda Limbaugh, Hannity and Trump campaign on campaign dems fighting for political life to demand support for border security. MORE, "
Democratic Sen Joe DonnellyJoseph (Joe) Simon DonnellyThe Memo: Trump and Obama meet in between Trump beats Donnelly for promotion of the libertarian candidate Dems fighting for political life for support for border security (Ind.) Try to hold his own in a state where Trump won 16 points in 2016 and is the only Democrat with a nationwide office.
Donnelly has attempted to tie himself to Trump, including as the first Democratic senator who opened the door to rethink Trump's controversial effort to change who qualifies for the first-born eligibility.
A Fox News poll showed Donnelly a lead of seven percentage points over businessman Mike Braun. However, the race is still rated as very good, with the Republicans, Missouri and North Dakota, seeing their best chance of occupying the seats currently occupied by the Democrats.
Arizona is emerging as the Democrats' best shot to throw a Republican seat into an otherwise brutal interstate ticket for the Senate section.
Republicans hoped that Sen. Jeff FlakeJeffrey (Jeff) Lane FlakeGOP chairman urges criticism Brand advertising: "The point is the problem solver of the President" McSally, Sinema appears at the ASU homecoming game Republicans MORE on pre-existing conditions (R-Ariz.), A frequent critic of the president, announced last year that the party would better protect the Senate seat.
But while the Republicans got the candidate, they wanted him as Rep. Martha McSallyMartha Elizabeth McSallyTrump Jr. refers to "tired old" Pelosi in ad McSally's campaign, Sinema appears in the ASU homecoming game. Republicans MORE over existing conditions (R-Ariz.) Sustained to survive a brutal high season, she was in a tough fight with Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.).
Unlike Nevada, where the Democrats are trying to sell off an established operator, the open race Sinema and its party seem to be giving a lighter but still buoyant boost.
Sinema is on average one percentage point, according to Real Clear Politics. And at a Fox News Poll, which was released last week, the race was a draw.
Heller has been a top target since the start of the 2018 cycle, as the only Republican Senate to stand for re-election in a state won by the United States Hillary ClintonHillary Diane Rodham ClintonKellyanne Conway calls Hillary Clinton the "Queen of Abortion." The memo: Trump and Obama compete against each other in the medium term Common thread in the election stories 2016: Let's give ourselves a passport MORE,
But he managed to stay in his race against Rep. Jacky rosesJacklyn (Jacky) Sheryl RosenPatagonia closes stores nationwide on election day: Weekly viewer leader Trump's immigration spurt raises Senate GOP MORE (D-Nev.) Despite negative spending of more than $ 33.5 million.
Heller clung tightly to Trump as he searched for a way to victory in the battlefield state, and Real Clear Politics shows he leads on average by 2 percentage points.
However, in a possible sign of trouble for Heller, the Democrats in the early vote of the state are leading by about 3.5 percent, which will put the GOP senator under pressure to increase its margin among independent leaders on Tuesday. And after predicting a 2012 Heller victory, Jon Nevston, a Nevada political observer, said Sunday he believes Heller will lose this year.
How close the race in Montana is during the waning days of the 2018 election cycle depends on which party you ask.
The Democrats acknowledge the race, but quickly notice Sen. Jon TesterJonathan (Jon) TesterPatagonia closes stores nationwide on Election Day. Dems fight for political life and demand support for border security. Watch live: Trump holds rally in Montana MORE (D-Mont.) Has been for weeks despite months of abuse by Trump and Donald Trump Jr.Donald (Don) John TrumpTrump Jr. refers to "tired, old" Pelosi in his campaign and CNN beats down Trump Jr. after criticizing the network for not showing an immigration location: "This ad is racist". Trump Jr. Brings Baldwin Before Arresting Garbage MORE
According to Real Clear Politics, testers have an average lead of more than 4 points. Other surveys show that the race is only two or three percentage points and thus within the error margin.
Republicans are more optimistic, believing that the Testers Trump feud has moved the race in their favor. And the Republicans hope that a visit by Trump, who is still popular in the country, will help at the last minute to bring Matt Rosendale to the top in time for Tuesday.
Democrats feel towards Sen. Bill NelsonClarence (Bill) William NelsonHistory, fate and the violins of a wounded autumn. Elon Musk supports Trump in space travel: "I really like it" Robust economy drowned out Trump MORE's medium-term messageOpportunities in Florida, even though Governor Rick Scott had risen to television advertising months before Nelson and had invested more than $ 63 million in his race to defeat the incumbent.
The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) on Friday pointed to the early Republican optimism regarding the race as an example of a "GOP Talk Point Bust" mentioning the Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnellAddison (Mitch) Mitchell McConnellA voter leader for the 100 million who do not want to vote. The vote next Tuesday will determine the future of social security. Medicare Democrats in hard races throw their group MORE under the busThe prediction that the Democrats would leave Nelson dead by mid-September was not
Democrats point to two main reasons for their optimism: the composition of Florida, which has the reputation of a violet swing state, and the excitement of Andrew Gillum, the candidate for the Democratic Gov- ernment.
Nelson only has a narrow lead of two points in the race, according to several polls, but FiveThirtyEight gives him a 2 to 3 chance to keep the seat.
Sen. Joe ManchinJoseph (Joe) ManchinDems for Political Life Fight Support for Border Security Election Day: Hourly Spectator Guide Hillicon Valley: Hate Speech Fits on Instagram Senators Urge Facebook to Repair Its Advertising Manchin Hacked | Twitter apologizes after turning "Kill All Jewish" into the trend theme MORE was initially considered one of the most vulnerable incumbents who were reelected in a state won by Trump at around 42 points – his biggest profit in 2016.
While many of his Red-State colleagues have achieved and lost the frontrunner status in their respective races, Manchin has been well ahead of Attorney-General Patrick Morrisey in the public opinion poll for weeks.
Strategists of both parties found his advantage as a gift to the retail politician and namesake in a state where he was governor before he entered the Senate.
The Republicans hope that Trump's recent visit to Morrisey could boost momentum towards election day.
However, the Washington Post reported that the Senate Leadership Fund, a McConnell-closed super-PAC, no longer broadcasts television coverage in The Mountain State.