The Government is a laboratory of repeated errors. Kirchnerism represents a symbol of thought anachronistic muddied by corruption. Both hold as main forces for the election of 2019. They can do it only based on the rejection of the other. Let's change, after two long years of stay in power, it would hardly keep the expectation of its continuity without facing Cristina Fernández. The former president would be naked, perhaps, against the fraud committed in the past if he could not victimize with the alleged persecution of Mauricio Macri.
That needy political reality, still a legacy of the 2001 crisis, does not seem to open an auspicious horizon for Argentina ahead of the election year. The public agenda is occupied by the severe economic recession, the nausea that derives from the corruption that decade K built hypocritically in defense of the poor and a structural decline from which almost nobody seems to be saved. The political leadership has charged more than enough. The trade unionists too. A good part of the business class had to take off their mask for the scandal of the "notebooks of briberies." The judges, despite the ruling that just condemned Julio De Vido for the tragedy of Once, do not finish shaking off the burden for the empire of impunity. If something was missing to complete the scene, it broke in last week: embarrassment in the Supreme Court that starred his former owner, Ricardo Lorenzetti, with the successor, Carlos Rosenkrantz. A collision between egos and small interests.
The question that inevitably arises is whether that image will remain frozen until next year's election. Or if there would be space for some variation. That implies an escape to the crack, that represent the Kirchnerism and the Macrismo. It is the hypothesis that the academic Pablo Gerchunoff usually synthesizes in the possible birth of the third child. A political expression, such as Kirchnerism and Cambiemos, also a product of 2001. So that it opens the path to an improvement.
Such possibilities appear limited for now. But the liquid state in which the policy is found, beyond the anchors of Macri and Cristina, they do not allow discarding it. The recent election in Brazil, which catapulted Jair Bolsonaro into the anteroom of Planalto, left some lessons. For a process that has many similarities with Argentina. Also clear differences. The first lesson is that the empty spaces are finally occupied. Even vertiginously. The Brazilian process revolved for years around the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff, the weakness of the current president, Michel Temer, and the vicissitudes of corruption of Lula. When Bolsonaro launched his candidacy in July he had 15% intention to vote. Three months later it exceeded 46%. There was a tide of punishment vote to the Peteist past and the present.
Brazil has problems that Argentina also exhibits, although on a different scale for now. Insecurity is the main one. Of the 50 most violent cities in the world, 42 are in Latin America. Of these, 17 are in Brazil and 12 in Mexico. Although it draws attention there is none of our country. Neither Buenos Aires nor Rosario, where only 123 homicides were recorded until September. Those data correspond to the Citizen Council for Public Safety and Criminal Justice (CCSPJP).
Statistics is useful to understand several things. For instance, that an unknown police woman (Katia Sastre) became a deputy for San Pablo after killing a thief when he was out of service in front of his daughter's school. That video went viral although the Electoral Justice prevented it from being used for the campaign. In the same way, it could be understood why Bolsonaro is not affected by his military advisers or the invocations to the dictatorship. Less, the demand of the security forces. The Brazilian collective memory has a different valuation of the dictatorship with respect to what happens for the same reasons in Argentina. That full military regime lasted three years. Then it was aggiornó until the democratic exit in 1985. Even when it committed infinite arbitrariness and claimed victims (434, according to the Truth Commission, which legitimized Lula and Dilma) it did not produce the blood bath lived here. Nor did it push the country into a war. Rousseff herself used military patrols in her first term in the fight against drug trafficking in the favelas.
The first round in Brazil was also a reverse process which should be in Argentina. There was a polarization perhaps typical of a ballot with the virtual disappearance of centrism. Here the challenge would be to recover the balance that electorally would not be representing anyone.
According to figures from the consultancy Isonomía the fertile field for the experiment could be. Cristina has more than 70% negative image today. Macri has already passed 55%. Citizens willing not to pay for one or the other would be around 35%. But there is still no leader or political force in sight to capitalize on this situation. Dialogist Peronism works towards that goal. Although its main figures (Jose Manuel Urtubey, Sergio Massa, Juan Schiaretti and Miguel Angel Pichetto) quote low. Nor is there uniformity of interests between them. The salteño approaches and moves away from Macri, according to the moments. The leader of the Renovating Renovating Front is a bitter adversary of the President. Massa has a stable alliance with Hugo Moyano. But the trucker leader rearmed another explicit with Cristina. Urtubey is on edge against the powerful union leader.
That important group of disenchanted people could swell to facilitate the opening of the doors to centrism. Turn from the current row to the punishment vote, as happened with Bolsonaro in Brazil. Cristina faces four oral and public trials for corruption. Macri faces the worst months of the recession. There is no guarantee that it will be passed in 2019. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has just released a forecast of an economic fall of 1.6% for next year. In the Government argue that it is a pessimism exprofeso: the entity, very cascoteada, would like to claim the success of the rescue before a better performance.
Cristina can do little in the face of the accusations and evidence that surrounds her. The Government could do something else, instead, to improve its situation. But he does not. It happens in old vices. Malpractice on the one hand. As well the deep political incomprehension of what a coalition means, like Change, in the exercise of power. Inexplicable, in that aspect, a triumphant tweet from the radical Angel Rozas celebrating the official retreat for gas, which dislodged Macri.
The President too often puts his leadership to the test. He kept until the last minute the idea of paying a retroactive price on gas, to compensate companies for the undocking of the exchange, when the project shipwrecked in the macrismo itself, between its radical partners and the entire opposition. Putting into question, perhaps, something that motivated the worried intervention by Nicolás Dujovne, the Minister of Finance and Finance, from Doha: the approval of the Budget, the last sign that the IMF waits to give effect to the agreement. There were sharp frictions between Marcos Peña, Emilio Monzó and Rogelio Frigerio. The head of the Cabinet wanted us to change to vote against the Senate an opposition resolution on the gas tariff when the conflict had already been resolved. Incomprehensible.
The serpentine of Elisa Carrió was sneaked into the tariff storm. The deputy conditioned the leadership of Macri. His request for resignation and impeachment against Germán Garavano, the Minister of Justice, to whom he endorses complicity with impunity and objects to certain advisers, seems only the straw of a greater dessert: the leader of the Coalition appropriates the fight against corruption. To such a point that forced twice last week to the President to raise the flags on that subject. For the first time also two ministers – Alejandro Finocchiaro and Carolina Stanley– They drew a limit to the deputy. Transparency is an asset that the Government still has. But there is a difference of intensity and scrolls when they are incarnated by Macri and Carrió.
Perhaps a piece of peace between the two can be hidden in the Supreme Court. Rosenkrantz has just been denounced for abuse of authority. The holder of a Foundation for Climate Change did it. The new supreme and the deputy assume that behind the maneuver is the shadow of Lorenzetti. Will it be Carrió's time to reactivate his impeachment request against Rafaela's lawyer? Is it also Macri's time not to resist more?
The dust in the maximum Court does not come at a good time. It does not seem an appropriate signal in an instance in which the country needs to recover confidence. It simply ended in a battle: the existing boredom by the personalistic handling of the twelve years of Lorenzetti's command. But another one appears: the feasibility that Rosenkrantz reconstructs a system of majorities, like the one that asserted his predecessor. An arduous task awaits him because his peers, even those who anointed him, distrust. A little for its presumed proximity to the Casa Rosada. Another bit, because he can imitate the steps and style of his predecessor.