In this issue: The pivot points of the intermediate results, the final queries, the final ads, and the predictions that will look either brilliant or ridiculous in 48 hours.
I stay with Dixville Notch and that's the trailer.
There are a lot of safeguards before the polls begin, but the consensus is clear: Republicans are in the running for the House, in many races for the governor, and in all but half a dozen Senate races.
How did we get here? If you start the clock right after the elections in 2016, you'll see a pretty clear narrative in which Republicans who did not expect a victory have repeatedly made decisions with high political costs. They see Democrats acting more decisively and coherently than they normally do and focusing on health care for almost two years, even when shiny objects fly over their screens.
November 29, 2016: President Trump selects Tom Price to run HHS
The President ripped five Republicans out of House and Senate posts to take positions in his government, and created special elections that lasted until December 2017. Everyone was expensive and all close together. The increase in Price, a physician who had been considered a Republican leader in health care restructuring, had the biggest aftershocks, beginning with the secretary's persistent efforts to sell the Affordable Care Act cancellation plans, and continued the eight-figure cash was a special case of the 6th district in Georgia and ended with Price becoming the first cabinet member to disgrace. Oh, and this district is once again a win after Price won it comfortably.
November 30, 2016: House democrats select Nancy Pelosi as leader
Weeks after the loss of the presidency, House Democrats held a tough and bitter contest to decide their future and decided to keep the course. Only a third of them rejected Pelosi in favor of Deputy Tim Ryan (D-Ohio), a vote that had two consequences.
First, the way Pelosi himself approached a job she had held for 14 years changed her and persuaded younger Democrats to speak for bills and high-profile media for the party. Second, it blocked the Republican Party and its PACs from the idea that the half-time between Trump and Pelosi could be chosen. Both decisions were made by the parties for two years; Without a popular figurehead, the Democrats built their own brands in tough races.
January 21, 2017: The women's march
How surprised was the political establishment when this event became the biggest one-day protest in American history? At that time, most of the Democrats who headed the DNC were in for a big gathering of donors in Florida. The rapid liberal organization that followed the 2016 elections really became unmistakable in this protest, the first in a wave of them that helped to organize and train activists, although some of the causes did not materialize and the organization of the women's march occasionally controversial was discussed.
30 April 2017: MEP Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-Fla.) Announces her resignation
This was the first in a wave of 28 farewell parties for house republicans, and it was a particularly harsh one. In a moment, a seat that was safe for the party, as long as Ros-Lehtinen was their candidate, became a first opportunity for a democratic pickup. The Republican knew this when she retired. And Ros-Lehtinen was the first of several Republicans to talk happily on the way back, as the Trump era party was unrecognizable to them. After a horror in September, the Democrats believe they have their place for their candidate Donna Shalala with a simple ad focusing on Ros-Lehtinen's successor, Maria Elvira Salazar, entitled "Bravo, Trump!"
May 4, 2017: House Republicans celebrate the passing of the American Health Care Act in the Rose Garden
Every single aspect of last year's health battle has plagued the Republicans, but not as much as the party reacted to their Pyrrhic victory in the House. After the republicans had saved the bill and conducted a referendum with an amendment by Rep. Tom MacArthur (RN.J.), the Republicans piled into the buses and drove to the White House to almost all with the President in front of the camera make laugh and joke. Dozens of Democratic candidates have said that the moment has got them up and running; The footage of the event has earned millions of millions of dollars in advertising. MacArthur's own race is now a litter.
17 May 2017: Robert S. Mueller III is appointed special advocate in the Russia investigation
The dismissal of James B. Comey as FBI director was a turning point, though not as the Democrats originally expected. It ended a fantasy that the party had been complaining for months when the Republicans suddenly turned against Trump and demanded that he leave office. It became clear that no event could do that. For election purposes, the Democrats had an answer to any question as to whether they would prosecute President Trump. For all except a few Democrats (and almost none in tough races), the answer was: Wait until Müller is done. The Republicans had long memories of how the campaign that would accuse President Bill Clinton had temporarily receded. The Müller investigation gave them something more to say.
June 9, 2017: Jon Ossoff announces a fundraiser for $ 23 million
For the Republicans, Ossoff is still a punchline, an ambitious candidate wasting his party's money. But his race showed the Democrats that their base was unusually alert and ready to donate for all sorts of causes, as long as they believed that there was a chance to regain Republican power. The president's party spent far too much time trying to convince himself that the big money transfers for Democratic House candidates would subside. They never did.
August 15, 2017: Roy Moore makes it to the GOP preliminary round in Alabama
It's worth noting the sequence of events that bring Sen. Doug Jones (D-Ala.) Into the old office of Jeff Sessions. What was clear last summer was how restive the Republican Party was and how the party had endeavored to tame it. In support of Luther Strange, the man appointed to replace Sessions, Republicans unleashed Rep. Mo Brooks (R-Ala.); Ads that focused on how he had criticized Trump like many conservatives when he sought the GOP nomination.
The theory, which proved catastrophic, was that Strange easily defeated Roy Moore, who sailed into the runoff and was considered clownish by many Republicans. This was the first of several master plans that fell apart; Another that could resonate on Tuesday was the effort in West Virginia that shattered Don Blankenship but opened a path for Patrick Morrissey to be a flawed challenger to Sen. Joe Manchin III (DW.Va.) and Leah Vukmir an unexpectedly weak challenger in Wisconsin, a state that once looked so promising to Republicans.
October 5, 2017: Rep. Tim Murphy (R-Pa.) Leaves the convention
This was the first of half a dozen resignations or retirements in a Congressional #Metoo moment. The decision of Murphy, who introduced a special election that would win the Democrats, was most effective in terms of the elections. It also set some kind of standard: scandals that members might have been riding before were impossible to survive, as anyone from John Conyers Jr. to Trent Franks to Al Franken would find out. Only one of these seats has changed sides in a special election: Murphy's.
November 16, 2017: Senor Robert Menendez & # 39; corruption case ends with a mistrial
The survival of the New Jersey Senator made for an embarrassing election for his party on Tuesday. Surprisingly, it also set some sort of standard for campaign scandals in this cycle: In the Trump era, some behaviors were viable. The Republicans now expect Menendez and two accused members, Rep. Duncan D. Hunter (R-Calif.) And Rep. Chris Collins (R-N.Y.), to win re-election.
January 8, 2018: Conor Lamb says he will not support Nancy Pelosi as a spokeswoman.
The Pennsylvania Democrat was not the first challenger to drop Pelosi, but did so in a way that would mimic other candidates with a big, flashy announcement in local newspapers. This decision reduced the benefit of the Republican campaign to portray Lamb as another Democrat puppet. So dozens of Democrats, many of whom have good positions to win tomorrow, would copy it.
January 22, 2018: The Pennsylvania Supreme Court beats the state's congressional card.
More than any other moment on this list, this set the race back for the House by turning Pennsylvania away from a state that was heavily targeting the Republicans who had pulled their 2011 ticket into a balanced state where each party, the wins nationwide, a majority of which would win seats. Without this decision, the Democrats believe they are two to four seats further from a chance at the majority.
3 June 2018: Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.) Attempts to visit a detention center for immigrants
It was not obvious that the "zero tolerance" immigration policy that separates undocumented migrants from their children would be a national political story. Merkel, a Liberal with some ambitious aspirations from the president, broke the ban by filming his failed attempt to visit a detention center. Looking back, the Republicans see this as their worst campaign of the year.
June 13, 2018: Rep. Mark Sanford (R-S.C.) Loses his preschool
The President has carried out a number of high-level interventions in the primaries and this was in a sense a minor one. Trump advocated Republican challenger Katie Arrington in a tweet just before the polls. However, it was the only occasion Trump defeated an established incumbent and became part of a wave of successful advocates. They have one thing in common: many, like Arrington or the Michigan Gubernatorial candidate Bill Schuette, have more problems than the alternative candidates.
26 June 2018: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez defeats Rep. Joseph Crowley (D-N.Y.)
In the end, the year of party boards was not a particularly annoying year; Most movements took place in races where members retired. But the victory of Ocasio-Cortez over one of the highest House Democrats made them and their supporters of the Democratic Socialists national stars. That had an unexpected legacy for the rest of the year. It did not lead to further insurgent gains in the federal primaries. Almost every Ocasio-Cortez campaigned for lost campaigns, and just another challenger, Ayannas Pressley of Massachusetts, beat an incumbent before the primaries were over. It has caused the Republicans to prepare for more democratic stumbling or shifts left in top races. They never came: Democratic ideological struggles were largely limited to primaries in safe blue seats, such as the New York State Senate districts, where insurgents would wipe out seven Democratic incumbents.
September 27, 2018: Lindsey O. Graham beats the table at the Kavanaugh hearings
Did the conclusion of the hearings by Brett M. Kavanaugh make a rather drowsy nomination by the Supreme Court a compelling moment? Both parties said they just did not agree who helped. However, in the first few days after the hearings, the Republican campaigns have been redesigned. Graham cited the indictment as a defender of a controversial candidate against a "mob" of rude and disruptive liberals.
October 27, 2018: The Massacre of Pittsburgh
The Parkland shootings had taken place first and had far-reaching effects on how weapons security played as a voting problem. However, this has consolidated this trend; The president himself said that if there was a republican impulse at the end of October, it and the sluggish bombs sent to Democrats by a Trump supporter stopped the attack.
October 31, 2018: Republicans from the homes and senates save tax cuts 2.0.
The 2017 tax cuts law simply did not matter to Republicans even after eleven months of solid economic growth. The president's eleven-hour turnaround with a mysterious "10 percent tax cut" revealed what election parties had been showing for months that voters simply disagreed that the tax cut had brought them benefits. The party leaders' decision to bring "tax cuts 2.0" into next year was a punctuation mark in the election: it would be fought under the terms of Trump and not by Paul D. Ryan, the president of parliament.
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National. Tom Steyer's "Need to Impeach" project has changed its face in the meantime: this "Need to Vote" ad is running on national cable and is turning Republican Fulmination over the "angry mob" to encourage voters to join to oppose the Republicans. If you watch cable in the last few hours, you'll see a lot on CNN and many of the Caravan's Super PAC ads in the Fox News.
California 25th One of the year's most eye-catching ads is this Wes Anderson-style ad for Democrat Katie Hill, who starts off with a mild political backdrop as she walks by in her campaign office, ripping up a "corporate check". Republican ads have attempted to depict Hill as dishonest, with a quote from a town hall stating that she would not talk about "single-earner" grooming in the district. (She does not support it.) This is a memorable place and a bit of jujitsu.
Maine 02. An important final theme of this election was the Republicans, who renounced conservative coexistence to warn that liberal Democrats would attack Social Security and Medicare. This is the attempt in the last NRCC rally against Jared Golden, who falsely accused the Democrat of hiring both programs. This is followed by a much mocked ad for Bruce Poliquin (R-Maine) MP, in which a doctor insisted that Republicans' plans would not affect Medicare.
Michigan Senate. Even Republicans who believe Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) is re-elected want to bolster Republican challenger John James. The party has no obvious leader for possibly competitive 2020 races in the 11th district and against Senator Gary Peters (R-Mich.). The Ended Spending Action Fund, the Ricketts family PAC, made a late $ 1 million purchase to promote the "brave new leadership" that James would bring; Like the Republicans' own ads in this cycle, neither the party's nor the candidate's policies are mentioned.
Senate of Nevada. For the second time, Senator Dean Heller (R) has commissioned Governor Brian Sandoval (R), the state's most popular politician, to stand up for him. Unlike previous ads, this does not touch the themes. it usually says that Heller "does the job".
Pennsylvania 16. If this year is the inversion of the 2010 Tea Party wave, this spot would show why; It goes to Rep. Mike Kelly (R), who won this year as a car dealer without political ties because he has made a "kickback" in the form of a tax change that helped car dealers.
Governor of Florida (Quinnipiac, 1,142 likely voters)
Andrew Gillum (D) – 50%
Ron DeSantis (R) – 43%
This pollster has caught up with Senator Bill Nelson (D-Fla.) By the same margin and both Democratic candidates could easily win independent voters; If this is the case, both parties believe that the race is clearly over, especially after a strong democratic conclusion to the early vote. Both Democrats are also leading in North Florida and in the Panhandle, the part of the state that condemned Hillary Clinton's 2016 campaign, after a strong advantage for them in the early voting.
Missouri Senate (NBC / Marist, 600 likely voters)
Claire McCaskill (D) – 50%
Josh Hawley (R) – 47%
A month ago, the Republicans had suggested that the debate on the appointment of Brett M. Kavanaugh by the Supreme Court would bring this race out of the way for the Democrats. Two weeks ago, they suggested that Hawley broke out, much like MEP Kevin Cramer (R) in North Dakota. Nevertheless, the president spends his last evening before the election campaign in Missouri's "Bootheel". In this poll, the President's work permit is set to 7, which the Republicans consider low, but Hawley had a terrible last week dominated by stories of making the Attorney General's office a political operation for the race.
Governor of New Hampshire (UNH, 630 Probable Voters)
Chris Sununu (R) – 49%
Molly Kelly (D) – 49%
Democrats have discussed their chances here since a surprisingly high-profile primaries on September 11, but this is the first and only poll showing governor Sununu in a dogfight. This is a state where elections in the last few days can and can break in one direction; four years ago, then-Gov. Maggie Hassan saw a two-digit major collapse last week and won with five points. While the Democrats want to beat Sununu, there is no sign that they can strengthen the state's seats and win (or win) the court. (That's what New Hampshire calls its legislature, get used to it because the Democrats will spend much of the year here in 2019.)
New Jersey Senate (Quinnipiac, 1,115 Likely Voters)
Bob Menendez (D) – 55%
Bob Hugin (R) – 40%
After the public panicked and spent over $ 10 million on TV ads reminding voters that Hugin had donated Trump, the Democrats believe they're ahead. Maybe not as much as this survey suggests, but for the same reasons. Independent voters who targeted millions of dollars in Hugin ads broke the presidential party. Some Republicans have begun to compare this to the 2014 Kansas Battle when Democrat-backed independent candidate Greg Orman failed to survive the link with a president who is toxic in his state.
Cory Booker. His home state has just passed a law that would allow him to serve as president in 2020 without giving up his seat on the senate. The risks for a Booker Democrat have fallen sharply in 2017 anyway; By 2021, it is up to Governor Phil Murphy (D-NJ) to appoint a replacement and schedule an election if there is a vacancy.
WHAT I WATCHED
Anyone who goes on the plank and makes electoral opportunities has now weighed in; Generally, the forecasters see a Democratic House and are skeptical that the next Senate race for the Republicans will break.
Larry Sabato's crystal ball
House: Dems 30
Senate: GOP 1
Governors: Dems 10
House: Dems 32
Senate: GOP 1
Governors: Dems 9
House: Dems 39
Senate: Dems 1
Governors: Dems 9
The asterisk is here because FiveThirtyEight, as Nate Silver likes to point out on Twitter, does not make any race predictions. It calculates the chances of winning and gave the Democrats an almost slightly better chance of winning in the close races at the end of Monday.
How did these analyzes go in 2016? Everyone underestimated the Republicans easily.
"Can Play-by-the-Rules win Chuck Schumer on Trump's lawn?" From Ben Terris
Nobody would be more shocked than the Democrats when Schumer wakes up on Wednesday as leader of a majority. History is more about how Schumer handled the past two years, ran his conference on many votes, but linked it to health and tax issues.
"These startups, platforms and apps are hoping for the Blue Wave," by Mark Sullivan
A deep immersion in the new technology built since 2016, which insurgents use in the hope of defying history.
"House Problem Solver's Caucus has solved few issues, claim two critics," by Jeff Stein
An amusing catalog of complaints from candidates who are quite tired of the incumbents announcing their membership in a caucus that has only made a few deals.
, , , 6 hours until the start of the vote in Dixville Notch, N.H.
, , , 11 hours to the polls in Vermont
, , , 17 hours until the elections in Hawaii and across the country are open
, , , 24 hours to complete the surveys in Kentucky
, , , 30 hours to complete the final polls in Alaska