The Trailer: Why will red states adopt Obamacare?

The Trailer: Why will red states adopt Obamacare?

In this issue: The really important election initiatives, fall time for attack ads and jitter in Republican suburbs.

I am considering an order that requires the trailer to be read.

SALT LAKE CITY – The battle for the Medicaid expansion in Utah is being conducted from a small office with three desks in a downtown skyscraper to three women in their twenties and about fifty volunteers.

If they succeed and have passed Utah's proposal # 3, one of the reddest states will adopt the Affordable Care Act. Last week, the "Yes on 3" team dropped off their last handouts and information flyers, which measured almost 60 percent of the polls. A voter expected to elect Republican Mitt Romney to the Senate is increasingly approving a small tax to fund health insurance.

This would dramatically change the policy of a deeply conservative state, and Utah would not be alone. In Idaho, the outgoing government divorced C.L. "Butch" Otter (R) has called on voters to adopt a similar election measure. In Nebraska, opponents of a Medicaid expansion initiative still do not have to spend money on it.

"We are already paying Medicaid expansion taxes but are not getting any returns our investment, "said RyLee Curtis, 28, the spokesperson and co-chair of the Utah Decides Healthcare campaign. "We also ask people: is it worth every penny one cent to finance this? That's a penny on a movie ticket. "

The surprised organizers in Utah were a relatively slow campaign to stop Proposition 3. To make the choice, the organizers had to draft a careful language that could be approved by the legislature, and collect 113,000 signatures. a process that took months.

"We prepared our messaging in March when the opposition was preparing," said Hannah Stansbury, 23, campaign manager for Utah Decides Healthcare.

But only at the end of September was the campaign "No" really Americans for Prosperity, the conservative group that has successfully implemented measures to counter Medicaid expansion in Republican legislation, launched a campaign calling for voters to " terrible tax hikes "kill. Proposition 3 was associated with a separate (and less popular) program, which would increase taxes to spend more on public schools.

This is an argument that has worked for AFP in other grassroots-based campaigns, especially when it pushed Republican lawmakers to kill Medicaid's expansion. In Utah, Republicans had responded to the traditional conservative concerns over Medicaid's expansion, which would make coverage available to anyone earning up to 138 percent of the poverty line by suggesting a restricted Medicaid plan with work requirements.

"It gets people's attention when they hear" more Obamacare, "said Heather Williamson, director of AFP, who claims that voters do not value long-term costs. "I do not think there are enough people who really know the implications of what would happen if Proposition 3 were passed, and that's a problem."

"It's just tax increases under a different name," says an actress in AFP's radio ad. Proposal 3 "gives the government more control over our health decisions. It would add 150,000 people to Utah's Medicaid system and push the concern for the truly needy. "

AFP, however, has a problem in Utah: it has been exaggerated. Utah's decision-makers decide to raise $ 2 million, most of it from the Fairness Project, a liberal electoral initiative that helped Maine complete Medicaid's expansion efforts. There was no Calvary for the "no" side, as the "yes" page ran with the news that Utahns had been paid by paying the federal government for a Medicaid extension that was rejected at home.

"We never said'Medicaid' before. That was a forbidden word, "said Curtis. "Our polls now show that people have a strong positive reaction to it."

Proposal 3 is one of dozens of nominations that will be voters across the country next week. Most of them call for a vote on liberal political goals.

Medicaid expansion. In addition to Idaho, Nebraska and Utah, Montana decides whether the extension should be made permanent by a tax increase. It is the only one of these initiatives to be outperformed, with the No side outperforming the yes side with a margin of 4: 1.

Legal marijuana Michigan and North Dakota will vote to legalize the drug for recreational use, while Missouri and Utah will legalize medical marijuana.

Reform of criminal justice Florida and Ohio voters will vote to reduce penalties for non-violent crime; Louisiana will vote on whether unanimous jury verdicts are required for convictions.

Immigration. The law on the Oregon Protected State, which has not been much of an issue this year, has been overruled by voters.

Wage. Both Arkansas and Missouri will vote on raising the state's minimum wage, a particularly buoyant issue in Missouri after the Republican legislature withdrew some salary increases in the city.

Control The California Republicans have put in place an electoral measure to lift the state's gas tax. The Republicans of North Carolina, like California, have a constitutional limit on future tax hikes.

Climate. Colorado voters will decide if fracking wells need to be further removed from residential areas, while Florida voters will decide whether to ban offshore drilling.

Suffrage. Florida will decide if voting rights for most non-violent offenders should be restored. Maryland and Michigan will vote on registering voters the same day; Nevada will vote on whether voters should be automatically registered when they receive their driver's license. North Carolina will decide whether to demand electoral cards after the state's legislative attempts to demand it have been put down in court.

Choice restructuring. Colorado, Michigan, Missouri, Ohio and Utah will be voting on various versions of redistributive changes, with Michigan and Utah considering bipartisan committees to replace the traditional role of legislators in drawing new maps.

Some of these measures are intended to help a party; For example, the electoral code of North Carolina shares the vote with a measure that would clarify the hunting and fishing rights, and the Republicans have written it in this way in the hope of supporting voter turnout. The California gas tax rebate was designed to increase Republicans' turnout in a year in which the party (rightly) seems to believe that no nationwide office would be competitive.

Other measures go further than the parties might wish. The 112 of Colorado, the anti-fracking measure, is not officially endorsed by the Democratic Party, and the nationwide ticket has no position on it. That could have helped Democrats; The energy industry, while skeptical of the Democratic gubernatorial candidate Rep. Jared Polis (D-Colo.), Has concentrated its money on beating the electoral measure.

AD WATCH

Alabama Governor Democrats did not manage to persuade Gov. Kay Ivey (R), who took office after a sex scandal had hit her predecessor, and who later refused to discuss opponents of both parties. She is now solidly ahead and running ads like these. She shows how much she loves her dog Bear, just as she loves to "create jobs and improve education."

Georgia 10. Rep. Barry Loudermilk (R) is one of several Republicans with reliable red advertisements and advertisements reminding voters of the mass shootings of the GOP at the GOP baseball convention. Not so quietly are the Republicans frustrated that the incident has disappeared from memory, while attacks on Democrats immediately raise questions about the tone of President Trump. The ads that highlight this point are soft and sad in this way.

Kansas 03. Representative Kevin Yoder (R) took a while to get used to the unique challenge of Sharice Davids, a fund-raising phenomenon that put her in an angry position against one of Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) Candidates won. His conclusion reminds voters of his work to leave an immigrant in the US after her husband's death, far from the news of most of the nearby races.

Maine 02. This newsletter is a safe place for tortured puns and metaphors, and this America First Action ad against Democrat Jared Golden goes well with it. The premise: Golden, who voted for tax increases, has a "golden goose" he wants to exploit for even more spending. If that does not seem to be the place of the Golden Goose fable, too bad

Michigan 08. We're at the point when campaigns run ads that could easily backfire. At a rally with former President Barack Obama, Democratic nominee Elissa Slotkin slipped and said "country over party" when she meant "party over country." An error she corrected after noticing the crowd's reaction. ("This is a tough audience!") The new CLF ad twice uses this clip to argue that Slotkin meant it, and falsely accuses them of supporting health care for individuals. Slotkin pointed out as soon as the ad got up. The local coverage of the GOP Super PAC was tough.

Senate of Montana. Sen. Jon Tester (D) closes his campaign with the often-told story of how he has lost three fingers on his left hand. Campaign campaign: Explaining how his parents had to pay the hospital bill after their "junk insurance" did not cover the operation. This was the dynamics of the race throughout the year. Republican Matt Rosendale asked Trump supporters to send an ally to Washington, and the tester asked voters to think about health care first.

Governor of Ohio. The fight over the question of who does not want to and wants to protect the ACA rules for existing conditions, with the announcement of the Republican nominee Mike DeWine achieved a new attitude, which urges the Democrat Richard Cordray, who has never been a legislator, not to "vote" to support the campaign ACA rules.

Senate in Pennsylvania. Rep. Lou Barletta (R) has blamed the last weeks of the race for accusing Sen. Bob Casey (D) of indescribably injuring his family by displaying an ad with the story of a family grateful for the family Affordable Care Act during the fight of their children with is cancer. What was wrong with that? Barletta had told Casey that one of his grandchildren was fighting cancer and the ad was a personal offense. This is the entire story of Barletta's 60-second adThis calls Casey's decision "unforgivable" and quotes conservative columnists calling Casey "horrific." Casey had been telling the story of the family since 2011 and had not pulled the ad.

Tennessee Senate This is the reddest state in which Republicans try to defend one of their open seats; It is only natural that there are currently more ads focusing on immigration. The new Senate Leadership Fund spot uses Democrat Phil Bredesen's first response to stories about the immigrant caravan, laughing at the idea that desperate people pose a threat to the United States.

POLL WATCH

Arizona Senate (NBC / Marist, 506 possible voters)
Kyrsten Sinema (D) – 50%
Martha McSally (R) – 44%

Republicans see a stronger advantage for McSally here, especially because the party has its traditional advantage over early voting. The wild card is the candidacy or "candidature" of Angela Green, a woman who was nominated as a candidate for participation in the Green Party (no kinship). Green did not submit campaign financial reports and did not run any visible campaigns. With her name added in the poll, Sinemas leads to 3 points. Green watches at 6 percent. However, one practical rule in third-party voting is that if candidates are not believed to be credible, their numbers will not hold on election day. In the final NBC / Marist survey in Arizona in 2016, the libertarian nominee Gary Johnson with 9 percent and the Green Party nominees Jill Stein had determined with 3 percent. With about half of them, it was 4.1 and 1.3 percent.

Governor of Connecticut (Quinnipiac, 1,200 potential voters)
Ned Lamont (D) – 47%
Bob Stefanowski (R) – 43%
Oz Griebel (I) – 7%

Any election for this office in this decade has been reduced to single-digit numbers. The last Quinnipiac poll in 2010 had dropped Demokraten Dan Malloy (who is now dramatically unpopular incumbent) by three points, and he won by a margin. The last Quinnipiac survey in 2014 had increased Malloy by three; he won at three. Believe it or not, the strongest closeness of a Democratic candidate for a governor in this blue state since 1986. And there is still a race in the game. The best news for Lamont is that he is the second choice of about twice as many Griebel voters as Stefanowski.

Amendment 4 of Florida (UNF, 1,051 Likely Voters)
Yes – 69%
No – 23%

Florida voters do not insist if they do not get 60 percent of the vote. Proponents of the amendment, who would vote for most nonviolent offenders, are still pushing for what happened in this campaign – the Republican candidates have condemned it, but there is no serious, well-funded campaign to support the to throttle Republican voters. A majority of them support the amendment in this survey, while a supermajority of Democrats and independent kicks supports well over 60 percent.

New York 19 (Monmouth, 372 Probable Voters)
Antonio Delgado (D) – 49%
John Faso (R) – 44%

Two weeks ago, when the president's approval had increased slightly, the Democrats insisted that the numbers of their candidates for the swing district were resilient. Here's some public evidence for the argument, with Delgado, the target of millions of dollars in ads attacking his brief career as a rap player, pouncing on this rocking field. The Democrats' personal bad numbers have gone up, but his favorable numbers have remained stable – that's not what you'd expect after months of attacks on his rap lyrics. This is another race where third-party contenders could play a spoiler role, but neither the Green Party nominees nor the actress Diane Neal have received much attention, and Neal used her only debut appearance to defend Delgado from the Republican attacks defend.

Governor of Rhode Island (WPRI, 416 Probable Voters)
Gina Raimondo (D) – 45%
Allan Fung (R) – 34%
Joe Trillo (I) – 9%

The Democrats believe that they would drop this race when they circulated photos of Fung wearing a hat "Make America Great Again". (A growing economy has helped.) The President has achieved better results here than any Republican presidential candidate since 2004, but received fewer than 40 percent of the vote and has since become less popular. The northeast is a region where Trump's shift to the right since the election victory has alienated more voters than they have won.

Virginia 07 (Wason Center, 871 Probable Voters)
Abigail Spanberger (D) – 46%
Dave Brat (R) – 45%
Joseph Walton (L) – 4%

Another home race, in which a former Republican tried to drop the race – here highlighting Spanberger's brief work as an English teacher at a Muslim school – sparked controversy, but left the race uneasy. Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) Leads the district after this poll, and the democratic strategy has always been to convince the suburban republicans that Brat is just too extreme to represent. At an impeccable time, Steve Bannon announced today that he would come to the district to help Brat.

ON THE PATH

with Jenna Johnson

SAN ANTONIO – The constituents of the 23rd district of Texas and the 26th district of Florida are mostly Hispanic and predominantly elected to Hillary Clinton in 2016. This year, two Democratic women are calling for reigning Republicans – Gina Ortiz Jones of Texas and Debbie Mucarsel-Powell of Florida.

But the Democrats are now asking why the Hispanic names of their candidates are often removed from Republican ads. The recent Congressional Leadership Fund award refers twice to the Democrat of Florida as "Debbie Powell," as in: "Debbie Powell Disclaims Mid-Level Tax Savings That Will Save $ 2,000 for Florida Families." The new place in Texas twice refers to the Democrat as "liberal Gina Jones".

Jones's middle name is her mother's surname, Victorina Ortiz, a Filipino immigrant, but the Republicans have accused her of choosing her to take office. The National Republican Congressional Committee runs a 30-second ad that begins with a spokesperson: "This is Gina Jones. You can know her as Gina Ortiz Jones. At home in Washington, DC, she goes by Gina Jones. While scratching for votes in Texas, she is Gina Ortiz Jones. "

Jones has responded with her own ad that opens with her spell in the camera: "You've probably seen Will Hurd attacking me, from my ministry to my name. Here's the deal: San Antonio is my home. "

Jones repeated this answer over a coffee in a San Antonio Taqueria last week when she was asked by a reporter about the Republican focus on her middle name.

"It's my second name," Jones said, adding that she thinks Hurd wants to distract him from his voting list.

When asked if she wanted to try the Latino voters, she replied, "Ortiz is my middle name. It was always my middle name. I'm proud of my middle name. "

Jones noted that her mother immigrated to the US because "she wanted a chance at the American Dream" and was prepared to work as a homemaker even though she had attended a top university in the Philippines. "Without her hard work, I would not be here without her victims. , , , And I wanted to make sure that I honor those victims and somehow put them on the ballot with me, and I'm proud of the fact that she does. "

The NRCC uses the full legal name of Mucarsel-Powell in its last spots, but does not use the CLF. A CLF spokesman declined to comment, but suggested that 30-second TV ads would not have enough time to use the full names of all candidates.

WHAT I WATCHED

The "birthright" Bonanza. One of the topics of this newsletter was that stability itself is a strategy. The Democrats, who are relentlessly focused on health care in the daily history of the White House, have put themselves in a stronger position than the Republicans, who seem to waver from one point to another.

Today's news cycle "birthright" was a typical example. By six o'clock in the morning on the East Coast, Jonathan Swan of Axios has tweeted a clip From his interview with the President, with the news that the White House is considering some kind of executive mandate to end constitutional citizenship for anyone born in the United States. It was, Swan said, a question that was based on "a leak from a good source." Hours later, Vice President Pence used a Politico interview to promote the notion that using the 14th Amendment provides "birthright" for born persons. The undocumented immigrants may have to face a new trial before the Supreme Court.

There was a clear theme following the democratic response: this was a terrible idea that should distract attention from the midterm meetings. "They are the desperate act of a desperate man who is constantly striving to divide and distract us," said Jerry Nadler MP (DN.Y.), head of Parliament's Judiciary Committee, in case the Democrats win a majority. As with many of the hottest issues in the midterms, the Democrats, despite (or because of) the lack of a single, popular leader, were quite on the alert.

Republicans were not. The idea of ​​ending "first-born citizenship" was seen by President Trump as a marginal cause for immigration restrictions. Even their adherents generally argued that preventing citizenship of people born from undocumented immigrants would require legislation or a constitutional debate, not an act of the president. Survey on the topic It fluctuated wildly, depending on whether voters were told that babies were born from "parents living illegally in the country" or "undocumented immigrants." The One Constant: Most voters wanted the system as it is.

These were the politicians who seethed the Republicans all day, especially as House Speaker Paul D. Ryan, who is launching a bus tour for the Republican candidates in Wisconsin, told the local radio, "You can not end your first-birth entitlement with a prison order. "Republicans on swing seats and even in seats that leaned against the Republican, the president seemed surprised. "It's pretty hard to argue with the Constitution," said Rodney Davis (R-Ill.) Erica Werner told the Washington Post,

For the birthright citizens, it was important for the president to push the boundaries of the debate. The Republican Party of 2015 never had a debate on this issue. The Republican Party of Trump was drawn to a party. The proof that this is politically effective is the amazing victory of 2016 – and many Republicans are skeptical that it can work without collapsing the problems that Hillary Clinton brings with it.

LAW

Apparently out of nowhere and after years of tolerance of his white nationalist rhetoric, the Republicans seem to have a problem with Rep. Steve King (R-Iowa).

First, the NRCC Chairman Steve Stivers King condemned in words that a party would never be used for a seated member of Congress. "Recent comments, actions and retweets by Congressman Steve King are completely inappropriate," wrote Stivers a tuesday tuesday, "We have to face white superiority and hatred in all its forms, and I strongly condemn that behavior."

The tweet had nothing to do with what King had done or said, but the congressman had been making news for weeks by defending far-right European parties and recently told The Post that the leaders of these parties would be Republicans if they came in. United States. King fired back on Tuesday, similarly, without referring to a specific story.

"These attacks are staged by evil, desperate and dishonest false news," King said tweeted on tuesday, "Your ultimate goal is to turn the house over and sue Donald Trump. Establishment Never Trumpers are complicity. "

King is the safest republican district in Iowa, but what worries the Republicans is a democratic attempt to hang his words on the ticket. After Stivers sounded the alarm, the Democratic Governor of Iowa Democratic nominee, Fred Hubbell, urged Governor Kim Reynolds (R-Iowa) to dismiss King as honorary co-chair of their campaign.

2020

Michael Avenatti. He has put together a kitchen cabinet when considering an application from the president. The most passionate supporter of Natasha Korecki's view of Avenattimania is Adam Parkhomenko, who organized much of his political life for Hillary Clinton.

Julián Castro. He is in South Carolina on Thursday and Friday and has focused on the race for the 1st congressional district.

Eric Garcetti For the first time, the Mayor of Los Angeles appeared in a TV commercial featuring a Democratic candidate. He is a star in the Republican of Katie Arrington in South Carolina who warns that Democrat Joe Cunningham was seen as "he is with the mayor of" Sanctuary City "of L.A."

John Hickenlooper. The outgoing governor of Colorado, whose state seems to be blue this year, advertise for Democrats in New Hampshire this week.

Jeff Merkley. The Oregon senator spent Saturday and Sunday in New Hampshire.

Bernie Sanders. Like Elizabeth Warren, he has now told an audience on tape that he could apply for his re-election to the Senate for the President. "When I run [for president] and to win, the likelihood is that I will not be Vermont's senator, "he said in a Monday's debate, standing on the ballot in seven days, but will spend two of those days in Florida (campaigning for Andrew Gillum) and New Hampshire Spend (campaign for local democrats).

Elizabeth Warren One of the final polls ahead of their likely reelection next week is 22 points, but with only 17 percent of voters hoping to run for the president, it is far less than a possible bid by former governor Deval Patrick.

READ LIST

"Penceburgh synagogue sacrifices in honor, Pence appears with" Rabbi "who preaches" Jesus is the Messiah "by Isaac Stanley-Becker

How was it that a "messianic Jew" was put on stage with the Vice President before a swing state rally? It's a good question and a better story.

"Müller wants the FBI to investigate a scheme for discrediting," by Natasha Bertrand

As far as history is concerned, in the meantime, it is relevant that it reveals the mentality of a political edge that considers unfounded charges of sexual misconduct against Republicans. The obvious scheme of making a false accusation against Robert S. Mueller III stems from the misconception that such things happen all the time.

"The Culture of the Democrats", by David Freedlander

A look at the actual, heartbroken separation between the old base of the Democratic Party and its troubled new ones, which simply is not enough to win a majority.

COUNTDOWN

… One day to the start of Trump's Pre-Midterm Tour
… seven days to the middle
… 15 days until the Republicans choose their new house tour

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