The NHC analyzes and predicts the evolution of these systems with certain subtropical characteristics.
The Invest 94L Future Lisa?
Showers and thunderstorms have recently decreased in coverage and intensity near a well-defined area of low pressure very close to Bermuda. However, previous satellite wind estimates indicated that the low was producing winds of the order of 48 – 56 km/h confined very close to its center.
If showers and thunderstorms redevelop near the center, the system will likely develop into a tropical depression tonight or tomorrow morning.. The system is then expected to turn northward and move into cooler waters and a region of upper-level headwinds, which should limit further development.
Regardless of development, local heavy rain and gusty winds are expected in Bermuda through tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours… high… 60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…60 percent.
Second zone of low pressure in the Southwest Atlantic
An area of low pressure is expected to form north of Puerto Rico over the southwestern Atlantic within days. After that, environmental conditions appear ripe for gradual subtropical development, as it meanders over the Southwest Atlantic through the early part of the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance in 5 days… low… 30 percent.
A below-par season, so far
The Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) is a measure used by various tropical meteorological agencies to express the activity of individual tropical cyclones and entire tropical cyclone seasons.
Well, according to the expert Brian McNoldy, the current values of the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season ACE is down to 75% of average for date.
It’s virtually impossible for the season to end on “average” this late in the game. NOAA’s outlook indicated only a 10% chance of a below-average season.
Since mid-October a named tropical cyclone has not developed. The last one was Carl. in the area of the Gulf of Mexico, affecting the coasts of Mexico. The next named tropical storm would be Lisa.
There is just over a month left for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season to officially end on November 30.