The effects of political and media announcements on Diesel are part of the fantasy world of emotional ecology, but we see that they have effects on the real economy.
By Michel Negynas.
It would be responsible for 40,000 or 60,000 deaths per year in France, especially in large cities.
All health professionals, environmentalists and serious epidemiologists know that these figures are at least doubtful: the studies at the base of the calculation are problematic, the figures are obtained by rule of three without it being known if it is scientifically based, it is not only diesel that pollutes in fine particles, heating too; finally, the air of the big cities has never been so pure.
In addition, recent diesel engines, in particular equipped with urea injection, do not pollute more than the new hyper-doped gasoline engines to reduce CO2 emissions. In fact, the French and European administration are fighting not the car manufacturers, but the principle of Carnot: to reduce consumption, it is necessary to increase the operating temperature of the engines, which physically produces more particles and oxide. nitrogen. The objectives are a priori incompatible. It is also by forcing the manufacturers to progress too quickly given the technical and economic constraints that led to dieselgate.
For the moment, only the old diesel are already affected by regulation, but the announcements of total ban possible to 2024 or 2025 are devastating.
The real world reaction
Sales of new vehicles collapse: from 60% of sales, they have increased to 30%. Prices on the occasion fall, of course: the "old" cars over 6 years are almost unsaleable, and everything suggests that it will accelerate. The average price has dropped instantly by 15%, say vendors, and this will increase rapidly if the future remains unclear.
Let's try a small calculation, based on plausible assumptions :
The French fleet is 50 million; 60% are diesel; the average age in all categories is 9 years, probably less for the diesel that had developed during the last years due to the considerable improvement of the engines …
Sales price hypothesis, before anti-diesel hysteria, for a diesel opportunity: almost 20,000 euros, 3,000 euros, average 11,000 euros.
This makes an estimate of the total value of the park of 330 billion euros (before announcements and regulations).
Since the attack on diesel:
Forward estimate of depreciation on the basis of sales already recorded: 100% for vintage cars, 30% for new high-end, 40% on average, futures.
This is an instant loss of value for France 130 billion without counting the stocks of new cars, engines and parts already manufactured, because the car manufacturers were completely taken aback by the ads.
This loss will refer to individuals, but also some companies with a large fleet: transport, rental … It is a real loss of wealth for the French, even if it is not very visible. As always, it is the less well-off classes who lose proportionally the most: their car is often their only asset.
Obviously this is not all: it is necessary to convert plants, and France being a diesel champion providing all of Europe, transfers will not happen without loss of French jobs. Some estimate that 15,000 jobs are threatened, with the necessary compensation costs and losses for the companies concerned, but also for the State in tax revenues.
All for nothing?
The average fleet being 9 years, we can consider that after implementation of the latest standards aligning the same constraints on diesel and gasoline, the average fleet would be up to the current standards in 2028. The "problem", if problem it there, would hardly exist anymore.
What will happen is still unclear. The effects of political and media announcements on diesel are part of the fantasy world of emotional ecology, but we see that they have many effects on the real economy: loss of trade balance, job losses, a year loss of value of French assets of more than 100 billion …
In fact, this is the largest scheduled obsolescence operation of all time.