The War on Food Security – Post Today Political Columnist

The war on food security

Date 02 Jun 2022 time 14:12

By…Phumrat Thasadipong


War between Russia and Ukraine Provide lessons on food and energy security issues for the world. The US uses economic and financial warfare to put pressure on Russia. Russia has responded to US and EU sanctions by banning the export of white and raw sugar, wheat, rye, barley and maize to Europe.

Russia and Ukraine are the world’s largest grain producers. It exports 30 percent of wheat, 20 percent of corn and 75% of the world’s demand for sunflower oil. Russia is the world’s largest exporter of wheat. With Ukraine being the world’s fifth largest wheat exporter, two countries export 19 percent of the world’s barley. In addition, Russia and Ukraine are the world’s largest producers and exporters of sunflower oil. which this oil is used for cooking

Production year 2022, wheat production is already decreasing. plus an increase in taxes on grain exports repeatedly encountered with measures that the Russian government prohibits exports Ukraine can’t export. Prices of wheat and other grains In the world market has increased considerably. In 2021, global wheat and barley prices are up 31 percent. In 2022, prices are expected to increase further. Sunflower oil expected to rise by more than 60 percent

The war also reduced livestock raising and fruit and vegetable production, which meant higher world market prices. The transportation system is inconvenient. oil price rise Shipping costs will also go up. Insurance premiums are also higher.

The United States pressures Europe to stop importing Russian oil and natural gas. by themselves will sell instead (Hungary is the only country that refuses because it relies on Russia one hundred percent of its power. If canceled, the people will surely overthrow the government.) The Europeans have become the scapegoats.

Europeans have to pay more. It’s more difficult if it’s winter. If the US can’t help solve the energy problem for Europe Europeans freeze to death But Americans are not in trouble either. There is only one using Ukraine as a proxy to fight with Russia hope that Russia will be confused on this side of the battlefield The United States will have time to fight with China to the fullest.

Thinking that the war will use economic and financial pressure on Russia, it appears that the results are not in line with the US and European expectations. Because Russia sells oil to China and India instead. The US thought it would use monetary measures to destroy the Russian economy, it turned out that the Russian ruble was stronger. Russia’s energy customers have to pay in rubles instead.

Petrodollar that used to be the hero, now there are Petro Yuan and Petro Ruble.

European sanctions In addition to causing trouble for Europeans It also puts some of the world’s poorest regions in inevitable food shortages. food prices rise The world’s fertilizer will be more expensive. This may be followed by a massive displacement of refugees and immigrants.

President Putin told Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi during a phone call on May 27, 2022 that Russia is ready to support a food security crisis if the West lifts sanctions on Russia, a barrier to exports. Wheat, fertilizer, other commodities Both from Russia and Ukraine, the world’s largest producers of wheat.

Consequences of the Russo-Ukrainian War causing other countries to become more strict on food security in the country Indian government suspends grain and sugar exports Malaysia suspends chicken meat exports Indonesia bans palm oil exports before reopening while Russia and Ukraine regarded as “The breakfast basket of the world” Southeast Asia is also “The world’s rice bowl” as well and is the world’s breadbasket. because the world’s largest rice exporter Argentina’s government has announced a ban on exports of soybean oil. Algerian government The Egyptian government banned the export of pasta, wheat, vegetable oil, sugar. Ban on exports of vegetable oil, corn, lentils Kuwait government bans exports of mutton products, grains, vegetable oils Afghan government Ban the export of wheat The Turkish government has banned the export of beef, goat, sheep, butter. The Tunisian government has banned the export of fruits and vegetables.

Earlier, the Russian government had banned exports of wheat, meslin, rye, barley and maize. The Ukrainian government banned wheat, oats, sorghum and sugar.

Both Russia and Ukraine are major fertilizer producers exporting to Europe and Central Asia. These countries, in particular, depend on Russian fertilizer 50 percent. If there is a lack of fertilizer, rice and other grain production It’s not as beautiful as the old one. dosage may be reduced This means that food prices have increased.

In conclusion, the Russo-Ukrainian war affected world food security. United Nations agencies that want to buy food to deliver to help people in famine in different parts of the world have a problem because it is difficult to find food. and food prices have increased

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank will allocate large sums to countries. Loans to tackle the global food shortage crisis in terms of agriculture, nutrition, social protection irrigation system to ensure food security in the next 15 months

I.M.F. sees the Russo-Ukraine war This time may affect the global economic growth in 2022 and cause inflation to rise. because of the famine impact on trade supply chain undermines business and investment confidence Energy prices have risen Regions at higher risk than others are from sub-Saharan Africa to Latin America, Central Asia and the Middle East, such as Egypt, which imports about 80 percent of its wheat from Russia and Ukraine. which the belligerent has already been affected It also affects the fundamentals of the world economy.

The Council of Emergency Rice Reserves of ASEAN Plus Three, together with China, Japan, and South Korea, will explore how the rice in stock can be used to address immediate emergencies.

Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, or F.A.O., has reported that the world food situation The World Food Price Index in April 2022 increased by 29.8 percent from the same period in 2021, and world food prices were higher than before. especially European countries that import wheat. Vegetable oil from Russia and Ukraine There was a shortage and the price of the existing rose. The war has reduced Ukraine’s production and exports. causing shortages in many Western European countries Existing prices are higher.

Consequences of the Russo-Ukrainian War This prompted the Indian government to issue an order in May 2022 to ban all grain exports, including wheat, “immediately”, stressing that the measure would be effective indefinitely. Except exporters who have been approved before this order can export their products normally. The Indian government claims that Such orders to increase management efficiency. security and domestic food safety amid rising inflation and to support neighboring countries and countries with real needs first. causing drought and affecting the country’s food and grain production

The ban was later criticized by the Group of 7 nations on India’s decision to suspend wheat exports. This aggravates the already high wheat price crisis resulting from the Russo-Ukrainian war. make the price even higher It called on India, the world’s second largest wheat producer, to take responsibility, as a G20 nation, by returning to normal wheat exports. But the Indian government has to consider the Indian people first.

In addition to affecting food shortages and rising food prices Oil and natural gas prices have also gone up. causing countries that import oil and natural gas to pay more The people who are directly affected are the people. Inflation rises. In addition to the people having to pay for the higher gas. They also pay for more expensive food and goods due to increased shipping costs. Producers slow production Investors slow down their investments.

If the price of goods and services increases People are not satisfied with the government. This is a challenge facing every government. including the Thai government which although there is no food security problem But they are facing inflation caused by rising oil prices.

In addition to the economy that has not recovered from the Covid-19 poisoning, it also encounters the toxic effects of rising oil prices and inflation. which is beyond our control This is a challenge to the government for 2022 and beyond.