The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts a stronger-than-expected decline in oil demand in 2020 – 8.4 million barrels per day, amid the recent increase in Kovid-19 cases and the crisis in air transport. This is stated in the September report of the organization, informed TASS and AFP.
The new increase in coronavirus cases in many countries, the measures against the spread of the infection, the maintenance of the teleworking regime, as well as the problems in the aviation sector have led to a revision to lower our demand forecast for the third and fourth quarters of 2020 by 100 000 barrels and 600,000 barrels per day.
At the end of this year, demand will be 8.4 million barrels per day lower than in 2019. The figure is higher than the expected contraction of 8.1 million barrels in the previous report, the IEA noted.
Supply from non-OPEC countries is expected to shrink by 2.6 million barrels per day in 2020 and increase by 500,000 barrels per day next year.
For 2021, the IEA forecasts an increase in demand by 5.5 million barrels per day.
Oil reserves are declining
Oil trading in developed countries, according to preliminary data, fell in August, although still above the average for the last five years. This is stated in the IEA report, quoted by TASS.
In the United States, industrial stocks fell by 19.3 million barrels, usually shrinking by 9 million barrels. At the same time, accumulated oil products in the United States increased by 1.3 million barrels.
Europe’s oil reserves fell by 9.8 million barrels, mostly in the Nordic countries (minus 5.6 million barrels), while oil stocks rose by 1.6 million barrels.
In Japan, oil inventories fell by 1.3 million barrels, but other oil products rose by 6.3 million barrels.
In July, the trade reserves of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development countries increased by 13.5 million barrels to 3.225 billion barrels, or 335 million barrels more than a year earlier.