Three ways for Iranians to effect a peaceful regime change

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<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "Raymond Tanter"Data Reactid =" 22 ">Raymond Tanter

<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "Security, Middle East"Data Reactid =" 23 ">Security, Middle East

It is time for America to work with Iranian opposition and build a stronger relationship with them.

3 options for Iranians to effect a peaceful regime change

<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "The commander of the Iranian special forces, Major General Qasem Soleimani, head of the Revolutionary Guard elite force, warned the United States on July 28 to stop threats of military action against Tehran. Soleimani has heightened the importance of exchanges between Washington and Iran. "Data-reactid =" 26 ">The commander of the Iranian special forces, Major General Qasem Soleimani, head of the Revolutionary Guard elite force, warned the United States on July 28 to stop threats of military action against Tehran. Soleimani increased the stakes in fiery exchanges between Washington and Iran.

<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "Soleimani's message indicated that Iran's leadership was ready to stir up tensions with Washington as part of Tehran's efforts to project greater regional clout. He said that President Donald Trump regretted being able to wage a war that would "destroy everything he has" – an obvious indication of US influence in the region."Data Reactid =" 27 ">Soleimani's message indicated that Iran's leadership was ready to stir up tensions with Washington as part of Tehran's efforts to project greater regional clout. He said that President Donald Trump regretted being able to wage a war that would "destroy everything he has" – an obvious indication of US influence in the region.

<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = ""You can start the war, but we will end it," Soleimani said in a speech in central Hamedan, Iran on August 1 Fars news. "Data-reactid =" 28 ">"You can start the war, but we will end it," Soleimani said in a speech in central Hamedan, Iran on August 1 Fars News.

<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "The Wall Street Journal reports that Trump would be ready to meet with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani (though his real opponent is Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei) without first demanding diplomatic concessions. This statement was an opening to the nations he once condemned, and has been called a threat to American security and economic security. For example, by spreading credible threats and promises of diplomacy, also known as "compulsory diplomacy," Trump helped bring Chairman Kim Jong-un to the negotiating table. "Data-reactid =" 29 ">The Wall Street Journal reports that Trump would be ready to meet with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani (though his real opponent is Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei) without first demanding diplomatic concessions. This statement was an opening to the nations he once condemned, and has been called a threat to American security and economic security. For example, by spreading credible threats and promises of diplomacy, also known as "compulsory diplomacy," Trump helped bring Chairman Kim Jong-un to the negotiating table.

<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "Trump, who answered a question at a White House press conference, illustrated his style of diplomacy, which was often very effective. The press conference took place only a week after him exchanged threats with Rouhani. In a television interview, Foreign Minister Mike Pompeo, in contrast to Trump's offer, called the conditions for such a meeting. "Data-reactid =" 30 ">Trump, who answered a question at a White House press conference, illustrated his style of diplomacy, which was often very effective. The press conference took place only a week after him exchanged threats with Rouhani. In a television interview, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo called the conditions for such a meeting, in contrast to Trump's offer.

<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "Trump expressed an openness to meet with Rouhani came less than three months after he withdrew from the nuclear deal with Iran. Under former President Barack Obama, it aimed to curb Iran's nuclear ambitions. Trump criticized Iran as "the largest supporter of terrorism in the world" in his speech at the White House on May 11, 2018. "Data-reactid =" 31 ">Trump expressed an openness to meet with Rouhani came less than three months after he withdrew from the nuclear deal with Iran. Under former President Barack Obama, it aimed to curb Iran's nuclear ambitions. Trump criticized Iran as "the biggest sponsor of terrorism in the world" in his speech on May 11, 2018.

<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "There was also a July 22 Trump tweet that threatened Iran."Data Reactive =" 32 ">There was also a July 22 Trump tweet that threatened Iran.

<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = ""For Iranian President Rouhani: NEVER THREATEN THE UNITED STATES OR YOU WILL SUFFER THE CONSEQUENCES THAT HAVE SUBJECTED DURING THE HISTORY AT THE SAME TIME WE ARE NO LONGER A COUNTRY RESERVED FOR YOUR DEFENDED WORDS OF VIOLENCE AND DEATH!""Data Reactid =" 33 ">"For Iranian President Rouhani: NEVER THREATEN THE UNITED STATES OR YOU WILL SUFFER THE CONSEQUENCES THAT HAVE SUBJECTED DURING THE HISTORY AT THE SAME TIME WE ARE NO LONGER A COUNTRY RESERVED FOR YOUR DEFENDED WORDS OF VIOLENCE AND DEATH!"

<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "The tweet dominated the headlines that day."Data Reactid =" 34 ">The tweet dominated the headlines that day.

<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "Trump took advantage of the Obama administration's sanctions, but when they retreated after the nuclear deal, his government also decided to impose sanctions on human rights violations and the destabilization of Iran in Syria and Yemen."data-reactid =" 35 ">Trump took advantage of the Obama administration's sanctions, but when they retreated after the nuclear deal, his government also decided to impose sanctions on human rights violations and the destabilization of Iran in Syria and Yemen.

<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "Trumps The White House uses authority that the Obama administration has not used and imposed sanctions on Iran for human rights and its interference in Syria and Yemen. The transition from the Obama administration to a government led by Trump thus helps – and does not hinder – protests in Iran. "Data-reactid =" 36 ">Trumps The White House uses authority that the Obama administration has not used and imposed sanctions on Iran for human rights and its interference in Syria and Yemen. The transition from the Obama administration to a government led by Trump thus helps – and does not hinder – protests in Iran.

<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "On July 22, Pompeo has given a big speech on Iran at the Reagan Forum. Under the previous government, only sanctions were imposed on Iran for its ballistic missile technologies and Iran's state support for terrorism. "Data-reactid =" 37 ">On July 22, Pompeo has given a big speech on Iran at the Reagan Forum. Under the previous government, only sanctions were imposed on nuclear weapons against Iran for its ballistic missile technologies and Iran's sponsorship of terrorism.

<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "Obama was empowered to impose sanctions on Iran over its human rights issues and its destabilization in Syria and Yemen. However, he decided not to use the authority and warned Congress not to."Data Reactid =" 38 ">Obama was empowered to impose sanctions on Iran over its human rights issues and its destabilization in Syria and Yemen. However, he decided not to use the authority and warned Congress not to.

<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "Anti-government protests in Iran are fueled by rising dissatisfaction with living costs and institutionalized corruption. Inflation is high, young people are fighting for work, and people are getting poor. Just last month, in major Iranian cities, such as Isfahan, Karaj, Shiraz, a new round of protests began that was extended to over a dozen other cities. They have since continued as demonstrators now resist the security forces attacking their peaceful but very powerfully demonstrated demonstrations. "Data Reactid =" 39 ">Anti-government protests in Iran are fueled by rising dissatisfaction with living costs and institutionalized corruption. Inflation is high, young people are fighting for work, and people are getting poor. Just last month, in major Iranian cities, such as Isfahan, Karaj, Shiraz, a new round of protests began that was extended to over a dozen other cities. They have since continued as demonstrators now resist the security forces attacking their peaceful but very powerfully demonstrated demonstrations.

<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "The value of the rial sank to a third of what it was worth a year ago."Data Reactid =" 40 ">The value of the rial sank to a third of what it was worth a year ago.

<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "What serves as fuel is political factors. It is important to find ways to accelerate Iranian political change. They seek free access to the Internet and messaging applications like Telegram. His main concern is security. The activities of Telegram – including chats, groups and media – are encrypted."Data Reactid =" 41 ">What serves as fuel is political factors. It is important to find ways to accelerate Iranian political change. They seek free access to the Internet and messaging applications like Telegram. His main concern is security. The activities of Telegram – including chats, groups and media – are encrypted.

<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "The The BBC estimates that 17 demonstrations and strikes are organized every day by unions and activists. These events are caused by the combination of Obama's limited sanctions against Iran and Trump's decision to withdraw from the nuclear deal and additional, stronger sanctions imposed. "Data-reactid =" 44 ">The The BBC estimates that 17 demonstrations and strikes are organized every day by unions and activists. These events stem from the combination of Obama's limited sanctions against Iran and Trump's decision to withdraw from the nuclear deal and impose additional, more stringent sanctions.

<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "Under Obama sanctions against Iran These included missile technologies, state support for international terrorism, the power to impose sanctions on human rights and to destabilize regional activities. These sanctions were imposed on Iran for actions in Syria and Yemen. Obama imposed sanctions on Iran's nuclear activities and human rights. For example, an official of the Ministry of Intelligence of Iran (MOIS), who is responsible for the Iranian intelligence operations in Europe, was picked up with evidence of his activities. So in 2012, the US Treasury accused MOIS of committing human rights violations and supporting terrorism. "Data-reactid =" 45 ">Under Obama sanctions against Iran These included missile technologies, state support for international terrorism, the power to impose sanctions on human rights and to destabilize regional activities. These sanctions were imposed on Iran for actions in Syria and Yemen. Obama imposed sanctions on Iran's nuclear activities and human rights. For example, an official of the Ministry of Intelligence of Iran (MOIS), who is responsible for the Iranian intelligence operations in Europe, was picked up with evidence of his activities. For example, Obama's Finance Ministry in 2012 blamed MOIS for human rights abuses and support for terrorism.

<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "In addition, Belgian authorities arrested a couple and accused them of preparing a bomb attack in France, which on 30 June foresees a peaceful rally by Iranian dissidents. The ally of the People's Mojahedin in Iran (PMOI), the largest group within the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), met near Paris. One hundred thousand people and speakers from around 70 countries took part in the event. Maryam Rajavi, the elected president of the NCRI, was the keynote speaker as she plays a big role for Tehran. This conspiracy was thwarted and an Iranian diplomat in Vienna was arrested in Germany after he provided explosives to the couple in Luxembourg. Several countries participated, including Austria, France, Germany and Belgium. "Data-reactid =" 46 ">In addition, Belgian authorities arrested a couple and accused them of preparing a bomb attack in France, which on 30 June foresees a peaceful rally by Iranian dissidents. The ally of the People's Mojahedin in Iran (PMOI), the largest group within the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), met near Paris. One hundred thousand people and speakers from around 70 countries took part in the event. Maryam Rajavi, the elected president of the NCRI, was the keynote speaker as she plays a big role for Tehran. This conspiracy was thwarted and an Iranian diplomat in Vienna was arrested in Germany after he provided explosives to the couple in Luxembourg. Several countries participated, including Austria, France, Germany and Belgium.

<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "Secretary Pompeo touched on this topic in his remarks on Iran on July 22. "data-reactid =" 47 ">Secretary Pompeo touched on this topic in his remarks on Iran on July 22.

<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = ""Earlier this month, an Iranian diplomat was arrested in Vienna and charged with supplying explosives for a terrorist bomb that was planned to bomb a political rally in France," he said. "It tells you everything you need to know about the regime: at the same time, they're trying to convince Europe to stay in a nuclear deal, secretly planning terrorist attacks in the heart of Europe.""Data Reactive =" 48 ">"Earlier this month, an Iranian diplomat was arrested in Vienna and charged with supplying explosives for a terrorist bomb that was planned to bomb a political rally in France," he said. "It tells you everything you need to know about the regime: at the same time, they're trying to convince Europe to stay in a nuclear deal, secretly planning terrorist attacks in the heart of Europe."

<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "Why should Iran target NCRI in Europe when Tehran needs it most? Why should Iran risk having its "diplomat" caught with evidence of the transfer of explosives? "Attention is scared.""data-reactid =" 49 ">Why should Iran target NCRI in Europe when Tehran needs it most? Why should Iran risk having its "diplomat" caught with evidence of the transfer of explosives? "Attention is scared."

<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "Tehran worries about demonstrators supported by the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) and uses violence against them. But they confront the regime with peaceful protests without such fears."Data Reactid =" 50 ">Tehran worries about demonstrators supported by the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) and uses violence against them. But they confront the regime with peaceful protests without such fears.

<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "Among the members of the American delegation in Paris rally were former officials, including: mayor Giuliani; speaker Gingrich; governor Richardson; Attorney general Mukasey; director Freeh; Under Secretary Joseph; Sen. Torricelli, Frances Townsend; Amb. Bloomfield and myself. "Data-reactid =" 51 ">Among the members of the American delegation in Paris rally were former officials, including: mayor Giuliani; speaker Gingrich; governor Richardson; Attorney general Mukasey; director Freeh; Under Secretary Joseph; Sen. Torricelli, Frances Townsend; Amb. Bloomfield and myself.

<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "The argument"Data Reactid =" 52 ">The argument

<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "Expansion and acceleration of protests in Iran represents a crisis and an opportunity to use the resentment of the people as a lever against Tehran. This ongoing crisis is an opportunity to be on the side of the Iranian people when it comes to changing their regime. Outsiders can bring about their revolution, and they need it political-technological support. Consider these three options for the Iranians to effect a peaceful regime change:"Data Reactid =" 53 ">Expansion and acceleration of protests in Iran represents a crisis and an opportunity to use the resentment of the people as a lever against Tehran. This ongoing crisis is an opportunity to be on the side of the Iranian people when it comes to changing their regime. Outsiders can bring about their revolution, and they need it political-technological support. Consider these three options for the Iranians to effect a peaceful regime change:

<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "First, the demonstrations started in December 2017 and reached their peak in January. They were followed by a growing flood of protests, most of which were not reported. They are similar in scope and scope to 1979, and it was these protests that led to the Islamic Revolution."data-reactid =" 54 ">First, the demonstrations started in December 2017 and reached their peak in January. They were followed by a growing flood of protests, most of which were not reported. They are similar in scope and scope to 1979, and it was these protests that led to the Islamic Revolution.

<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "Protests are gradually rising and are therefore overlooked."Data Reactid =" 55 ">Protests are gradually rising and are therefore overlooked.

<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "Second, recent demonstrations indicate that Iranian protesters are turning the tide against Tehran. in the Every war has to endFred Ikle explains that wars end because one side is victorious over the other, or both sides are exhausted from the fight. "Data-reactid =" 56 ">Second, recent demonstrations indicate that Iranian protesters are turning the tide against Tehran. in the Every war has to endExplains Fred Ikle that wars end because one side is victorious over the other, or both sides are exhausted from the fight.

<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "Third, there are dictatorships: either they all seem to be successful over others or are tired of fighting. Iranians despise Iran."Data Reactid =" 57 ">Third, there are dictatorships: either they all seem to be successful over others or are tired of fighting. Iranians despise Iran.

<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "Rulers pay attention to a coalition of oppositionists, eg. NCRI, about twice as many as all other dissidents together. That's why I've put together a few policy recommendations. "Data-reactid =" 58 ">Rulers pay attention to a coalition of oppositionists, eg. NCRI, about twice as many as all other dissidents together. That's why I put together some policy recommendations.

<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "The way forward"data-reactid =" 59 ">The way forward

<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "First, it is important to find a way to facilitate regime change by Iranians by putting maximum pressure on Tehran, providing people with free and secure access to the Internet and reaching them and NCRI."Data Reactid =" 60 ">First, it is important to find a way to facilitate regime change by Iranians by putting maximum pressure on Tehran, providing people with free and secure access to the Internet and reaching them and NCRI.

<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "The protests are mounting, and Tehran is increasingly turning its attention to its alternative, the NCRI, which plays an important role in organizing protesters through its main member organization. So, reach Iranian dissidents."data-reactid =" 61 ">The protests are mounting, and Tehran is increasingly turning its attention to its alternative, the NCRI, which plays an important role in organizing protesters through its main member organization. So, reach Iranian dissidents.

<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "Second, a terrorist attack on Tehran against the 2018 Paris meeting proves the regime's fear of the NCRI because it sees this coalition as the viable alternative to its rule. Why should this movement be targeted in the face of high political costs?"Data Reactive =" 62 ">Second, a terrorist attack on Tehran against the 2018 Paris meeting proves the regime's fear of the NCRI because it sees this coalition as the viable alternative to its rule. Why should this movement be targeted in the face of high political costs?

<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "Tehran also made a similar bomb attack in March to meet three thousand members of these dissidents in Albania as they celebrated the Iranian New Year celebrations in Nowruz."data-reactid =" 63 ">Tehran also made a similar bomb attack in March to meet three thousand members of these dissidents in Albania as they celebrated the Iranian New Year celebrations in Nowruz.

<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "This conspiracy was foiled by the Albanian government when they arrested two Iranian agents tied to a planned truck bomb of the incident. Therefore, the new US policy on Iran, which Pompeo declared in twelve points in May and further developed by him on 22 July, must be implemented."Data Reactive =" 64 ">This conspiracy was foiled by the Albanian government when they arrested two Iranian agents tied to a planned truck bomb of the incident. Therefore, the new US policy on Iran, which Pompeo declared in twelve points in May and further developed by him on 22 July, must be implemented.

<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "Third, Tehran has already rejected Trump's offer for a meeting, knowing that this is the first step in changing behavior in Iran. This is the time for Trump to stand with the opposition and build a stronger relationship with them. Iranians need help to finish the job. These include escalating, expanding and ongoing protests calling for a free Iran."Data Reactid =" 65 ">Third, Tehran has already rejected Trump's offer for a meeting, knowing that this is the first step in changing behavior in Iran. This is the time for Trump to stand with the opposition and build a stronger relationship with them. Iranians need help to finish the job. These include escalating, expanding and ongoing protests calling for a free Iran.

<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "Raymond Tanter He served as a senior member of the staff of the National Security Council staff in the Reagan-Bush administration, as a personal representative of the Secretary of Defense in international security and arms control talks in Europe, and is now Professor Emeritus at the University of Michigan. Follow him on Twitter @ProfRTanter,"data-reactid =" 66 ">Raymond Tanter He served as a senior member of the staff of the National Security Council staff in the Reagan-Bush administration, as a personal representative of the Secretary of Defense in international security and arms control talks in Europe, and is now Professor Emeritus at the University of Michigan. Follow him on Twitter @ProfRTanter,

<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "Image: A young boy stands in front of the Iranian national flag with his ink stained face and finger, symbolizing a voter who has already cast his vote in a polling station during the Iranian parliamentary elections in South Tehran March 2, 2012. REUTERS / Morteza Nikoubazl "Data Reactid =" 67 ">Image: A young boy stands in front of the Iranian national flag with his ink stained face and finger, symbolizing a voter who has already cast his vote in a polling station during the Iranian parliamentary elections in South Tehran March 2, 2012. REUTERS / Morteza Nikoubazl

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