One month before the election, the battle plans are launched. " One thing is certain: the next European Parliament will be extremely fragmented, with no clear majority, with multiple forces fighting against each other for influence ", Simon Hix, professor of political science at the London School of Economics, one of the authors of the latest report of the European Council for International Relations (ECFR).
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Published at the end of April, the document (1) is indeed based on a hemicycle with balanced equilibrium: according to the data collected by the think tank from 14 Member States representing 80% of the seats in the European Parliament, the block on the left , which could grab 34% of seats, is hot on the heels of the right – credited to 32% – and by eurosceptic parties, given to 30 to 35% of places with or without the participation of the United Kingdom.
Symbols of change
As it prepares to lose for the first time its majority down to 43% of seats, the "great alliance" of the center right (EPP) and socialists (S & D) would open a boulevard to the Liberals and / or the Greens for the next term of office.
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"A centrist coalition around the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats (ALDE) and The Republic on the move! (LREM) – who are beginning to agree on how they will work together – could therefore be a "kingmaker", still analyzes the report, calling for traditional " think about [leur manière] to position themselves as symbols of change, while the anti-European parties present them as the defenders of the status quo in Europe ".