True DTAC will merge, who will win, who will lose, what will the people get from this deal?

From the press release of both True and DTAC stated that the CP Group and Telenor group will consider creating equal cooperation or Equal Partnership to support True and dtac to restructure their business to become a technology company or Technology Company that can survive. and able to compete in the business world for the next 20 years

The amalgamation led to a total revenue of 217,000 million baht, profit before expenses of 83 billion baht, market share. or market share in terms of income not more than 40% by the merger and exchange plan that will be established by Citrin Global Company Limited

In this regard, Citrin Global will make a conditional voluntary tender offer for all securities of the 2 companies before making the tender offer. The offer price for dtac shares At 47.76 baht per share and the price of True shares is 5.09 baht per share and will allow existing shareholders who do not wish to hold shares in the new company to sell their shares in a voluntary tender offer.

In addition, True and dtac agree that the restructuring to become a technology company In line with the Thailand 4.0 strategy to become a regional technology hub, telecommunication or Telecom will remain one of the business structures. And will have to develop more business in the technology-oriented area. including artificial intelligence Cloud technology, IoT, smart devices smart city Thai digital media solutions

Including restructuring to support investment in technology companies or Tech Startup by establishing Venture Capital that focuses on investing in Thai startups. and international startups Location in Thailand. In addition, we also have plans to study space technology or Space Technology to apply to business. This is considered to be an open mindset for further innovation as well.

However, from the point of view of doing business, it is said to go according to plan. but if you look at it from the perspective of the general public Mobile network service user corner Including the chain in the telecommunication business will be positively affected. And what’s the downside in this regard? Dr. Somkiat Tangkitvanich President of Thailand Development Research Institute or TDRI All information has been summarized as follows.

1. No matter what the company calls But in academic terminology it is called amalgamation.

Even if it is called Equal Partnership or Eco Partnership. But the economic effect is called the reduction in the number of entrepreneurs. The merger will help develop technology. Take Thailand to compete on the world stage, get ready, market share may be true. But if you look at the telecommunication market point of view But if the mobile phone market 2 market share totaling 52%, becoming the number one in the market

2. The Thai mobile phone market already has a semi-monopoly structure. The more monopolies it becomes, the more dangerous it becomes. It would be very worrying if there was a merger.

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When the two companies merged will have a market share of 52%, known as the number one in the mobile phone market In foreign countries, there is a tool to measure the structural monopoly, the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index: HHI, with the highest value of 10,000 being a single monopoly. But this merger will bring the HHI index of Thai telecommunication businesses to 5,012 from 3,659, or an increase of 1,353, a huge leap forward. until it is concentrated at a dangerous level


3. The positive impact of the merger is the shareholders of the 3 mobile phone companies, not just the companies that will be merged.

Over the past 5 days, DTAC shares and TRUE shares have risen. This is natural because investors foresee that the two will benefit from the merger, while AIS shares are rising together. Even becoming number two If you look at the theory of economics, it can be answered that If there is a merger The market will be left with only 2 players. There is a need for competition, such as price competition. customer service will be less than having 3, which is why AIS shares are rising Because of the benefits as well

4. Those who are negatively affected by the merger can be divided as follows

– Consumers and the general public and businesses

The Thai mobile phone market will go backwards before 2004 with only 2 players in the market, AIS and DTAC. would go back to 15 years ago if we still remember that the service was considered Not very consumer friendly, such as IMEI or imei locks, allowing the purchased phone to only use its own network. which if there is a monopoly In addition to the high service fee There will be a compulsory sale of tow rights as well. Of course, consumers are not just regular customers. but also means businesses that rely on cell phone signals as well

– Another telecom partner, shop, and start-up sponsor will disappear.

Consumers are not just regular customers. but also means businesses who rely on cell phone signal business When the bargaining power is reduced They may have to have higher costs. As for startups that want to venture capital or Venture Capital from the telecom business, they will disappear.

– Government and Taxpayers

In the future 6G spectrum auction, the number of competitors has decreased. The government will collect less taxes. which people who have to pay taxes like us may have to pay more taxes to use the money raised to cover the deficit of the government to slow down public debt

– Thai economy

Currently, the Thai economy is in the transition to a digital economy. There may be higher costs when the merger makes the structure more monopoly and could derail Thailand in its leap to the Digital Economy.

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In addition, Ajarn Somkiat also spoke about the experience of monopoly from business mergers in Thailand. for example

Cable TV : When there is a merger premier league football Used to be in a cheap package become more expensive Consumers who want to watch pay more, less choices.

Cinema : There is a merger until there are 2 big operators left. Movie tickets in Thailand are quite expensive. Currently, we may not be affected much because of streaming.

Retail: shopping mall merger

Hospital : Private hospital business that people need to use the service and have to bear the increasing cost

“The movie theater business merger and retail is not affected much because we still have options But if there is a consolidation in the telecommunication business, we do not choose the two mobile operators, how do we connect to the internet?”

Professor Somkiat also said that the operators claim that must be combined to prepare for future innovations. To develop Thailand to compete on the world stage The question we would like to ask is Today, what technology are the two companies involved in developing for us to know? Is it like Huawei or not that manufactures equipment? There were many innovations, but it never appeared. What new developments or technologies have been developed by Thai telecommunication service providers?

As for getting ready for the challenges of the next 20 years, I don’t think it’s a reason to merge. But the merger will give the market more monopoly. Charges have come up, stocks go up, compared to looking at Singapore which is a small island. But there are many mobile operators giving consumers a choice.


5. The NBTC has a duty to increase competition in the market. and reduce monopoly can’t deny duty

There are two related laws, namely the Telecommunications Business Law, Section 21 Telecommunications Business. In addition to being subject to the law on competition The Commission shall prescribe specific measures in accordance with the nature of the telecommunications business to prevent the licensee from acting in any way that monopolizes or reduces or restricts competition in the provision of telecommunications services in the following matters:

1. Service subsidies

2. Holding a business in the same type of service

3. Unfair use of marketing power

4. Anti-competitive behavior

5. Protection of small entrepreneurs

When the law is clearly written The NBTC can prevent business holdings in the same type of services. I was therefore very surprised that the NBTC office gave the news that the merger had to be released. I didn’t understand why he refused the duty in the first place.

6. The Office of the Trade Competition Commission or Kor Kor. has a duty to strictly screen mergers.

If the NBTC does not perform as it should We also have competition laws. which is applicable to behavior dominating the market merger But this law must be interpreted because there is a section 4 that does not allow this Act not to apply to the actions of

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1. central government provincial government or local government

2. State enterprises, public organizations or government agencies However, only in the part where the law or the resolution of the Council of Ministers is necessary for the public interest. common interest or provide utilities

3. Farmers’ groups, cooperatives or cooperative gatherings which is legally certified and has the objective of running a business for the benefit of farmers’ occupation

4. Businesses with specific laws governing trade competition

The issue may be that Mergers may argue that The NRPC may not have the power in this case. Because the telecommunication business has specific laws governing trade competition.

However, even the committee The current NBTC will be the acting team. But there must be information prepared to wait for a new set to act. When it’s time for entrepreneurs to proceed, request a merger. The new NBTC may not have information, it may prevent the enforcement of the laws that they have power.

“People, consumers have to rise up and change. Even if it’s a difficult question But we can change it, putting pressure on the government, which next year there will be an election. Maintaining your image is important. which if a lot of pressure The government might have some policy to urge regulators to do their duty to investigate.”


Chaiwut sees normal business needs to reduce costs hard to believe in monopoly

Chaiwut Thanakmanusorn, Minister of Digital Economy and Society or DES, commented on this matter. how to monopolize Because the mobile phone business is already competitive and the NBTC is considered normal. A business that has many operators can’t monopolize it, he invests a lot, has a spectrum auction cost. In some countries there is only one If there are many owners and different people invest, it will be a waste. Costs are higher, people have to pay more for services. This depends on business planning. As for the government, it’s just to oversee how it affects the people.

“This is not about the government. Mergers and acquisitions are business. Can it be done or not? It was something he had to agree on. The government has no power to directly order or supervise whether to include or not. But in the overall picture, we have to see how it will affect the business if combined. As for the National Telecommunications Company Limited (Public) or NT, how will it stand to compete with the private sector? It’s not yet time because NT already has its own business. and have their own income Still no effect This has to be looked at in the long term. But I believe there will be no negative impact for sure.”