Unicredit-Mps, it’s not over yet

The match between Unicredit and the Treasury on Mps (of which the Mef holds 64% of the capital) may not be definitively closed, despite the formal breakdown made official on Sunday evening. Fabi hopes so, rumors whisper, while the brokers return to consider wedding hypotheses. And you can see it on the stock exchange where the shares involved have regained their share: Unicredit closed the session at 11.5 euros, up 1.4%, Mps regained 1.06 euros (+ 1.4%), at the the eve of what, at least in theory, promises to be another Christmas of fire to bring Rocca Salimbeni to safety and schedule the state’s exit scheduled for the end of the year by the agreements signed with the European Commission. Meanwhile, yesterday from Brussels, with which Rome is negotiating to obtain more time to resolve the Sienese case, two cryptic responses arrived: on the one hand, the “responsibility of the Member States to respect the commitments” and the fact that “Italy it must live up to the commitments made ”, in a delicate moment given the launch of the NRP, on the other hand it is recalled that“ the deadline (for privatization ed.) has not yet expired ”. In short, a solution can and must be found.

The extension and the inevitable injection of capital could then imply the sharing of the burdens for the bondholders, despite the fact that Rome wants at all costs to avoid such an eventuality with a market operation. Nor would the intervention of the ECB be painless, which, called upon to pronounce itself on the “stand alone” plan of Monte Paschi, could ask for a much more substantial capital strengthening than the one previously estimated (even 5 billion compared to the 2.5 billion envisaged) and , as Lando Maria Sileoni, secretary general of Fabi fears, a drastic “slimming treatment for employees of MPS”. For this reason, Sileoni, speaking on Radio Rai Uno, aims at a resumption of negotiations that will overcome the fracture with a political agreement. “I think we try to buy time: the parties will have to meet because in my opinion there are the conditions to be able to reach an agreement in some way”.

Unicredit has always been considered the ideal partner for Mps. And Rocca Salimbeni itself continues to represent for the bank led by Andrea Orcel the easiest way to go for that dimensional leap that would make the group hang up its positions with respect to its rival Intesa Sanpaolo, perhaps laying the foundations, in Rome, to discuss the acquisition. of the most coveted prey: Banco Bpm.

Meanwhile, the two CEOs address words of appreciation on the transaction in their respective letters to employees. Guido Bastianini, head of the Tuscan bank, spoke of “enthusiasm for the working hypotheses that presented important aspects”. For Orcel, on the other hand, it is “an opportunity to create added value for Unicredit”. More details could emerge in the next few days: on 28 October Unicredit presents the quarterly report, on 4 November it is the turn of Mps, while on 8 November Bastianini and Orcel are called to hear the bicameral Commission.