US 10-Year Bond Yield 2% Is “Definite” or Expected to Raise Interest Rate in March-Bloomberg

It seems almost certain that the 10-year US Treasury yield will exceed 2%. Traders are expecting a big US interest rate hike in March.

Yields on 10-year US Treasury bonds rose 37 basis points (bp, 1bp = 0.01%) earlier this year to 1.88% on the 19th. It is heading for a surge since November 2016. With the rise of observations that the US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 0.5 points since 2000, futures traders are building positions in anticipation of a further decline in bonds by March.

“We are certain that the US 10-year bond yield will reach 2%, but sales are likely to ease a bit after that,” said Damian McCullough, head of bond research at Westpac Bank. “Nevertheless, it is certain that yields will rise further after the first rate hike in the United States,” he said.

Yields on US 30-year bonds rose to the 2.20% level since June last year on the 19th.

Rising yields are approaching the level at which mortgage-backed securities (MBS) investors will trigger a convexity hedge to sell US Treasuries to reduce US interest rate risk.

U.S. 10-year yield rising most since just after 2016 election

Shane Oliver, head of investment strategy at AMP Capital, said, “It’s just a guess, and depending on the pace of rate hikes by U.S. authorities, the yield on 10-year U.S. bonds is expected to rise to around 2.5% in the coming months and probably 2.75% by the end of the year. I’m doing it. ” “The bond market is beginning to recognize that secular stagnation is over, high inflation is prolonged and yields are rising,” he said.

Original title:Treasury 10-Year at 2% Looks a ‘Done Deal’ on March Fed Bets(抜粋)