Although his name is not on the ballot anywhere in the US, make no mistake – these elections refer to Donald Trump.
He's right in the middle of the campaign and has been raging through the country in these last few days. Air Force One, the taxpayer-funded backdrop for these high-profile occasions.
He has done this to support Republican candidates, yes – but in the end he has made this a referendum on his presidency. Wherever possible, he has dictated the terms of the debate. And nobody determines the conditions of the debate as he does.
Presidents have always paid attention. Theodore Roosevelt called the White House its "bully pulpit" – the place from which he could demand attention and push his agenda.
But Donald Trump has his own bully pulpit, 55 million Twitter followers and a penchant for uttering the indignant.
They feel that everything in American life is a reaction to what Donald Trump said. His supporters admired it, his opponents regretted it, and the candidates who actually participated in the voting tried to get a word.
And that has sparked real excitement in these elections – both for and against him. So far, the number of people who have chosen early is about twice as high as four years ago. That's awesome.
In some countries, the number of votes already cast approaches the total number of votes cast in 2014, including on election day. And what the pollsters, what the analysts and what we want to find out in the media, of course, the biggest question – what does this Augur?
We do not know, but here are some hints.
What will be the vote among the minorities? Will the votes vote more than in 2016? and will you choose Democrat?
Among women – 52% of white, college-educated women supporting Trump in 2016 – recent polls indicate that Democrats have a massive head start.
That could make a big difference in many suburban home races. In these elections, more women than ever before run, in part in response to a president they perceive as misogynist.
What about young people? They seem to be cheered. Many seem hostile to the president – but do they have the energy to get out of bed and go to the polling station?
And will the supporters of the president be as motivated as two years ago?
Donald Trump makes politics with a decisive psychological insight. Anger is an emotion that stays much longer than hope.
Although he has a very good story to tell about the economy – growth has gone up, unemployment has fallen, consumer confidence is rising, taxes have been lowered, the stock market has risen impressively – that is not the basis of its base.
Feel-good policy only takes you so far.
Much more potent (and much more poisonous, according to his critics) is to fuel the fear of the caravan – the emerging group of Central American people who are stirring up Mexico – to "invade America," according to the president.
They're still hundreds of miles away and walking – but Donald Trump has sent thousands of troops to the border. His message is that only he will protect America from the foreign, disease-afflicted, criminal hordes infiltrated by Isis at the gate.
He has also indicated that he will sweep away the 14th Amendment, which entitles anyone born in the US to an American passport. He has promised so by order of the executive, although the overwhelming view of lawyers is that you can not do this.
Again, it looks like setting fire to the base, not a sober assessment of what the president can and can do.
Many of these messages – including some high-ranking Republicans – have been clearly queasy and deeply troubling. He is accused of engaging in demagoguery and raw populism.
The Washington Post is trying to keep records of what they believe are the President's untruths – and the machine that counts these falsehoods / lies / lies is overheated because it has to work so hard.
Democratic candidates have largely tried to ignore the issue of immigration, not always successfully, and preferred to talk about health care, which is one of the most important issues among the voters.
But what if the tactics of the president are confirmed?
What if the Republicans stuck to Parliament and the Senate and violated the laws of US politics, that the incumbent president's party always gets kicked?
It is no exaggeration to say that the direction America is going will depend on these results.
If the Republicans cling to both houses of Congress, this is a complete justification for Donald Trump.
He will be the political ruler of all surveys. Who will try to stop him if he sack Robert Müller and give up the investigation in Russia?
Who will stand in why when he demands an escalation of his trade wars? Who will resign if he threatens to pull the US off NATO?
Who will stop him if he demands billions for the wall between the US and Mexico? Which Republican dares to tell him that he is wrong?
But if the Democrats fare well – and the polls merge under the proposition – they could take control of the House of Representatives – that's a whole different story.
- The big US election problem is not a Trump
- Follow the US elections in the BBC
His enraged opponents will wrap the White House into bureaucracy, subpoena documents, request e-mails on the appointment of Brett Kavanaugh, transcripts of what he has said to Vladimir Putin, details of the President's tax returns that have never seen the light of day Increase the funds for the Müller investigation, blocking funds for the pet projects of the President – basically, to tie him up.
And the aura of invincibility that has embraced the New York billionaire since he entered this gold escalator in the summer of 2015 has begun to crack. Suddenly he seems beatable.
But, but, but …
I apologize that the dominant point in this blog is the question mark. But as Jimmy Cliff first noticed in the 1960s and Johnny Nash repeated in the 1970s, there were more questions than answers.
And what about predictions about the result?
Do you think I'm going to stretch my neck after what happened two years ago ?!
There. A question mark and an exclamation mark.