MIAMI, KOMPAS.com – A recapitulation of a number of surveys over the past week shows Democratic candidate for the United States (US) president, Joe Biden, maintains his lead over incumbent Republican President Donald Trump.
Biden consistently leads nationally and in a number of crucial states or swing states, who will determine who the inhabitants of the White House are on January 20, 2021.
In the state of Wisconsin, two surveys show former Vice President Barack Obama a convincing 6 and 10 points ahead of Trump.
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Biden was up 52 percent versus 46 percent according to an ABC News / The Washington Post poll.
The 77-year-old veteran politician also earned 52 percent in Wisconsin according to a CNN / SSRS survey. However, in this survey, Trump was only chosen by 42 percent of respondents.
Biden also got good news from two states that have a significant demographic of Hispanic voters, Arizona and Florida.
Arizona, which has traditionally been the basis of the Republican vote is likely to change political choices in the 2020 presidential election.
The Monmouth University survey gave Biden a narrow 2-point lead, at 48 percent to 46 percent.
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However, Biden has a big lead when referring to a Siena College / The New York Times Upshot survey that shows him leaving Trump by 9 points away, which is 49 percent versus 40 percent.
Meanwhile, in Florida, Biden led 50 percent against 45 percent according to a poll by Monmouth University.
Two different surveys also show Biden’s superiority in the state of North Carolina.
CNN / SSRS shows Biden leading Trump with a gain of 49 percent against 46 percent.
Tighter competition can be seen from the results of a survey by Siena College / The New York Times Upshot, where the two presidential candidates are only 1 point apart, namely Biden 45 percent and Trump 44 percent.
A national survey by NBC News / The Wall Street Journal gave Biden a convincing 8-point lead, namely 51 percent against Trump’s 43 percent.
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Magic number 50 percent
Magic number or it can also be called a psychological number defined as a number that is often used as a reference for winning in general elections.
A very clear pattern from the released survey results is that the Biden figure is stable in the range of 48-50 percent.
This gives a signal that Biden is in a comfort zone to secure victory in the November 3 elections. Almost the majority of the people of “Uncle Sam’s Country” chose to choose Jill Biden’s husband.
The pattern can also be seen from the range of Trump’s votes which remained fixed in the range of 45-46 percent, aka not moving from popular vote which he won in the 2016 presidential election.
The 74-year-old president is having a hard time expanding his voter bloc which is too concentrated on white voters without a university education.
The populist rhetoric of the right that continues to echo and the chaos in handling the spread of the corona virus, has made the voter bloc that was previously the basis of Republican voters to leave the party bearing the elephant symbol.
These voter blocks are mainly voters living in the constituency suburban, university-educated women voters, and most surprisingly older voters.
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Half of US voters reside in the county suburban and they will determine who is the winner of the 2020 presidential election.
Trump won the electoral bloc suburban in the 2016 presidential election by a difference of 4 points.
Four years later, the average survey results show Biden beat Trump with a double-digit advantage in the region suburban.
Shift support on suburban is a major factor in keeping Biden in his near 50 percent comfort zone.
Trump is trying to use law enforcement rhetoric to scare off voters suburban, that Biden would ravage their cities like Kenosha and Minneapolis because of the racial crisis.
So far the survey results show voters suburban The growing diversity of ethnic minorities is not affected by Trump’s rhetoric.
Voters suburban was the main key to the Democratic victory in the 2018 DPR elections.
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