Broggi also sees an arbitrage possibility for those who have bonds in pesos that adjust by Badlar rate or CER. These titles do not enter this exchange, but could be a bridge to it. “We see a clear opportunity to exchange current CER bonds for new CER bonds through AY24 or AO20.”
However, for those who already have local law bonds in dollars, Broggi still believes it is more convenient to opt for securities in foreign currency. Although it clarifies: “It will have to be analyzed when the date comes, because the exchange ratios could change, favoring the option of a CER bond and the strategy depends on the price of the MEP dollar.”
Meanwhile, a Delphos Investment report reported: “An individual in whose portfolio there are positions in titles that adjust by CER could go from those positions to AY24 or AO20 and go to the exchange for the new Boncer, in such a way that, when these new bonds are located in the current curve, the potential upside it would be around 12% ”.
Santiago López Alfaro, partner at Delphos, added: “We see income opportunities for people who today do not have positions in local law debt. The bonds we like the most are the short ones (the AO20, the AY24) and the DICA. The DICA because it has the best exchange option as it is similar to the DICY and the short bonds because you have the option of, when the exchange comes, go to bonds with longer CERs ”.
For his part, Walter Morales, president of Wise, indicated: “In dollars, the only bond we recommend is 2030, which will surely be used for MEP and CCL, which will inflate its price. Also because we cannot guarantee the ability to pay for the next 20 years. In addition, we see the option of converting to pesos for the 2026 bond that adjusts for CER (especially for those who cannot exchange for 2030) attractive, since we believe that inflation will be high in the coming years. And we believe that from mid-2021 the dollar will lag behind ”.
For his part, the research manager of Invertir Online, José Bano, considered that the best option for investors is to enter the exchange, although he does not believe that there are entry points for those who do not have Argentine bonds. “Due to the exchange ratio and the expected price of a new bond, there would not be much upside, except that the country risk falls to 500 points.”
In a similar vein, Cohen’s chief strategy officer, Diego Falcone, stated: “We think it’s better to wait and see. I do not see the feasibility of the Government implementing an orthodox plan. We will see what happens with the fiscal plan when you sit down to negotiate with the Fund ”.
Meanwhile, Federico Broggi considered: “In a world with an interest rate of 0, with high issues from the different global central banks and more relaxed liquidity conditions, and thinking that Argentina will not have important maturities with the private sector for 3 or 4 years , an exit yield of 10% would be correct, achievable. In this sense, the bonds would have an upside range of between 15% and 20% for the exchange. So we continue to see value “