The winners include above all the automotive stocks. The shares of Continental, Daimler and BMW top the Dax list of winners.
The industry is benefiting from a survey by the Ifo Institute, according to which the German automotive industry is expecting a slow recovery in the coming months. Business expectations have turned positive for the first time in seven months. According to Ifo, more companies want to expand their currently low production.
The Dax was also boosted by the US labor market figures. In June 4.8 million new jobs were created, the consensus estimate was 3.0 million. The unemployment rate is 11.1 percent after 13.3 percent in May. A value of 12.3 percent was expected here.
“After the corona restrictions have been relaxed and sentiment indicators have recently brightened, the labor market can also convince,” say Helaba analysts. However, many millions of jobs had been lost in the crisis, and there could be no question of full employment for a long time. According to the labor market data, the US Federal Reserve is under no pressure to deviate from its expansionary path.
A look at the Dax chart shows: The Dax has moved little overall since the beginning of June, even if there are 1300 points between the monthly high (12,913 points) and the June low (11,597 points). For a week now, the Dax has been more or less on the spot.
Nevertheless, investor sentiment has changed. According to behavioral economist Joachim Goldberg, who is evaluating a survey by the Frankfurt Stock Exchange, pessimism among investors has returned. According to the sentiment analysis, this is a classic contraindicator because then many investors have already sold and less selling pressure weighs on the prices.
Accordingly, the starting position for the Dax is rather encouraging in the coming trading days. Because, according to Goldberg, mood swings were caused by “pessimism masked would-be optimists”, quasi “Bulls in Bear Fur “. In his opinion, it is an attempt to be part of a continuation of the stock rally with not too bad cost prices.
In addition, many investors would have had bad experiences speculating on falling prices in the first half of the year. For this reason, Goldberg expects to buy again at a Dax level below 12,000 points, which should support the leading index in the event of another sell-off wave.
And what happens if the Dax continues to rise? “The biggest risk for these actors is that the party takes place without them,” says the behavioral economist.
No trading day without news about the Wirecard share, which experienced a quiet trade with a minus of 16.2 percent compared to the past few days. The volume was also rather quiet with 14.2 million papers, previously more than 40 million copies changed hands every day.
But that can change quickly. A number of hedge funds have increased their short position since the company’s insolvency proceedings, according to London-based analysis platform Ortex. The short sale rate has fallen by more than 40 percent in the past few days because many hedge funds have cashed.
Nevertheless, according to Ortex, more than 10 million papers are still “shorted”. The last short sale entry in the Federal Gazette is from Tuesday of this week, Susquehanna has increased the quota to 1.12 percent of the freely tradable shares.
According to the official data of the Federal Gazette, the short sale rate is currently 7.98 percent of all freely tradable Wirecard papers, a total of 9.9 million pieces. However, only a quota of at least 0.5 percent is published there.
Peter Hillerberg, co-founder of Ortex Analytics, says: “Our data shows that short sellers continue to see an opportunity at Wirecard. For anyone who thought the Wirecard saga was over, it is clear that short sales are not done yet. ”
Short sellers speculate on falling prices by lending and selling shares in a company, for example in mutual funds. In order to return these shares after the deadline, you have to buy them again beforehand – of course at a lower price if possible.
The behavior of the hedge funds is expected in the coming days for new turmoil in trading with the share of the online payment service provider cause. The paper loses 36 percent on today’s trading day.
Look at the individual values
FC Schalke 04: In contrast to BVB, the football club is not listed on the stock exchange, but has issued a bond with a term until 2023. The paper, however, showed only a slight reaction to the turmoil surrounding the resignation of supervisory board chairman Tönnies. The exchange rate remained at 88 cents per euro and is around 90 cents today – presumably because a savings program was announced yesterday Wednesday.
However, the corona pandemic has increased the risk and thus the return on the Schalke bond significantly. At the beginning of the year the price was still 110 cents, the yield accordingly at 1.5 percent. Hard-boiled Schalke fans can currently achieve a yield of 9.5 percent with the bond. Of course, only if the association does not have to file for bankruptcy.
Bayer: The pharmaceutical and agrochemical group Bayer got money on the bond market just a few days after the settlement in the billion dollar US glyphosate dispute. Bonds with a total value of six billion euros and terms of four to twelve years were placed. The interest rate is 0.375 to 1.375 percent per year. Bayer shares rose by around 1.6 percent in a friendly market environment.
Bitter: The IT leasing company reported a drop in new business of around 45 percent to EUR 402.3 million in the second quarter due to the corona crisis. After the clearly limited development at the beginning of the quarter, business picked up in June. However, it is not foreseeable whether this is a continuing trend, said CEO Antje Leminsky. The share rises by 2.2 percent.
Look at other asset classes
The gold price just missed the $ 1,800 mark yesterday afternoon at around $ 10. This was followed by a consolidation that continues on Thursday. The yellow precious metal is currently trading at $ 1786 per troy ounce, minus 0.1 percent compared to the previous day.
The chart technique also shows how important the $ 1800 mark is. In late 2011 and in 2012, the gold price had four key highs in the $ 1800 range. Technical analysts then speak of resistance. The more often a value fails due to such resistance, the greater the importance. Therefore, this level is of much greater importance than the all-time high of $ 1920 in 2011.
“With a sprint above the 1800 mark, even new record levels are increasingly likely,” say the HSBC analysts.
What the chart technique says
The HSBC technical analysts calculated that on the basis of the data since 1988, the trading month of July statistically saw the fifth best monthly performance in the course of the year with an average price increase of 1.57 percent. The probability of rising DAX prices in July is also constructive at 59 percent.
As long as the stock barometer is above the combination of the steep recovery trend since the end of March (currently at 12,225 points) and the 200-day line (currently at 12,156 points), the starting position is favorable to capitalize on the seasonal tailwind described the HSBC analysts yesterday Wednesday.
The June chart also shows the range that could be important for the summer: with 12,913 points on the top there is an important hurdle that must be overcome for the rally to continue. On the underside is the important support for the coming weeks with the monthly low of 11,597 points.
Here is the page with the Dax course, here are the current tops & flops in the Dax. Current short sales by investors can be found in our short sales database.