Pakistan Unveils Massive 70GW Power Expansion Plan to Fuel 2035 Economic Growth
ISLAMABAD — Pakistan is preparing for a seismic shift in its energy landscape, projecting a staggering requirement of up to 70,720 megawatts (MW) of additional power generation capacity by 2035.
This ambitious forecast, detailed in the revised Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan (IGCEP) 2025-35, is designed to anchor the nation’s economic trajectory, supporting GDP growth estimates ranging from a conservative 3.5% to a high of 6.4%.
The strategy, developed by the Independent System and Market Operator (ISMO) in collaboration with the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (Nepra), represents a comprehensive overhaul of the national grid, including the systems operated by distribution companies and K-Electric.
The Blueprint for Energy Independence: IGCEP 2025-35
At its core, the IGCEP 2025-35 is not merely about adding megawatts; it is about fundamentally altering how Pakistan produces and consumes electricity.
For decades, the country has grappled with a volatile reliance on imported fuels. This new roadmap signals a decisive pivot toward indigenous resources and sustainable energy.
A Radical Shift in the Energy Mix
By 2035, the government envisions a landscape where renewables dominate. Hydropower is projected to account for 34% of the total capacity mix, while variable renewable energy (VRE) will contribute another 27%.
The decline of imported fuels is stark. Residual furnace oil (RFO) is slated for complete removal from the mix, while imported coal and re-gasified Liquefied Natural Gas (RLNG) will be scaled back to just 7% and 13%, respectively.
Indigenous fuels will provide the remaining stability, with nuclear power at 7.5%, local coal at 5.2%, and local gas at 2.6%.
Funding the Future: The Price of Power
The financial scale of this transition is immense. The present value of operations and investments for future power projects is estimated between $46 billion and $54 billion.
Furthermore, the government anticipates spending an additional $4.6 billion to $6 billion on transmission system expansion to ensure electricity can move efficiently from generation hubs to load centers.
Can Pakistan truly achieve energy independence while balancing the immediate costs of these massive infrastructure projects?
Beyond the Grid: Solarisation and Local Innovation
The plan recognizes a growing trend: the rise of the “prosumer.” A significant quantum of 8,120 MW is allocated to net metering, acknowledging the surge in rooftop solar adoption.
To mitigate the cost of this transition, the ISMO suggests a strategic move toward the local manufacturing of renewable energy technologies. This “indigenisation” is expected to lower the overall cost of equipment, saving foreign exchange and reducing tariffs for the end consumer.
Interestingly, the plan highlights a recent decline in network-connected consumption by distribution companies (Discos). While some see this as a warning, planners view it as a short-term phenomenon driven by economic volatility and the rapid shift to private solar installations.
Will the shift toward distributed generation and net metering fundamentally change the relationship between the consumer and the state power utility?
Strategic Infrastructure and K-Electric Integration
Infrastructure expansion will not be limited to power plants. The Transmission System Expansion Plan (TSEP) 2025-35 models new transmission lines running from the South to the Centre and North of the country.
A critical focus is the relationship between the National Grid and K-Electric (KE). By 2035, power exports to KE are expected to climb to 3,456 MW, significantly exceeding the current contract of 2,050 MW.
The government is now tasked with a complex cost-benefit analysis: whether to rely on these National Grid exports or prioritize KE’s own planned 620 MW of renewable energy projects.
Ultimately, the success of this 10-year horizon depends on the government’s ability to raise the current load factor from 58% back to its historical 70% through aggressive demand-side management (DSM).
As Pakistan navigates these economic headwinds, the integration of strategic projects like the Diamer-Bhasha dam—managed under “Least Cost Violation” (LCV) frameworks—will be pivotal in ensuring the lights stay on as the economy grows.
For a deeper understanding of how infrastructure projects correlate with national GDP growth, the World Bank provides extensive data on the energy-economy nexus in developing nations.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Pakistan’s Power Generation Expansion Plan 2035?
It is a strategic roadmap known as the IGCEP 2025-35, designed to project and meet the country’s additional energy needs to support economic growth through 2035.
How much additional capacity is needed for Pakistan’s power generation by 2035?
Depending on GDP growth scenarios, the government projects a need for additional capacity ranging from 62,660 MW to 70,720 MW.
What is the role of renewables in the Pakistan Power Generation Expansion Plan 2035?
Renewables are central to the plan, with hydropower expected to make up 34% and variable renewable energy (solar and wind) contributing 27% of the overall capacity mix by 2035.
How will the Pakistan Power Generation Expansion Plan 2035 impact energy costs?
The plan emphasizes a shift to indigenous fuels and local manufacturing of RE technologies to lower the ‘basket price’ and provide relief to end consumers.
What is the estimated cost of the Pakistan Power Generation Expansion Plan 2035?
Generation investments are estimated between $46 billion and $54 billion, with an additional $4.6 billion to $6 billion required for transmission expansion.
Disclaimer: This article discusses government projections and economic forecasts. Actual energy capacity and costs may vary based on political stability, foreign investment, and global market fluctuations.
Join the Conversation: Do you believe the shift to renewables will finally end the cycle of load-shedding in Pakistan? Share this article on social media and let us know your thoughts in the comments below!
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